Broncos’ Draft Needs: Will George Paton go big and draft a quarterback in the first round?

On Mar. 4, George Paton stated he was going to add competition to the Denver Broncos’ quarterback room. A week before the draft, however, not a single move has been made. Not a single one.

But that doesn’t mean Paton and the Broncos haven’t tried. In fact, they were in talks with the Detroit Lions about trading for Matthew Stafford. After that fell through, Denver reportedly had talks about acquiring Teddy Bridgewater from the Carolina Panthers. Neither of those panned out.

Now all eyes turn to the draft, specifically the first round. But will Paton make the big-time move and draft a quarterback with his first pick as Broncos’ general manager? Here’s how it breaks down.

Special thanks to Andre Simone for providing draft input.

Current players on the roster

Starters: Drew Lock

Depth: Brett Rypien, Jeff Driskel

Level of need entering the draft: Glaring

Strength of position in draft: Loaded class with talented top five

Round(s) targeted: First

Top players in the draft: Trevor Lawrence (Clemson), Mac Jones (Alabama), Zach Wilson (BYU), Trey Lance (North Dakota State), Justin Fields (Ohio State)

Five quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round. Heck, five quarterbacks could go in the first five picks. But when it comes to the Broncos potentially drafting a quarterback in the first round, it boils down to two names: Trey Lance and Justin Fields.

Publicly, the Broncos have done more homework on Lance and Fields than any other top prospects in the draft. The Broncos have had multiple representatives at both of their two Pro Days. In fact, Paton and Pat Shurmur have seen both top QBs in person at their Pro Days.

Additionally, rumblings are that the Broncos view both athletic quarterbacks very favorably. However, Denver isn’t alone in this thinking.

Lance and Fields are both still in play to be the 49ers pick at No. 3. Falcons’ general manager Terry Fontenot is reportedly very high on Lance. Atlanta holds the No. 4 pick. With that, both QBs could be off the board before the No. 5 pick.

If, however, one or both fall outside of the top four, there’s still no guarantee either will slide to the Broncos at No. 9. Teams like New England (No. 15), Washington (No. 19) and Chicago (No. 20) have been tied to rumors about trading up in the draft to select a top-five signal caller.

If Paton wants to ensure he lands Fields or Lance, he’ll need to trade all the way to No. 4 — either before the draft or during. A move like that will likely cost at least an additional first-round pick. If the price is too steep for Paton, Denver could roll the dice and either trade up a few spots if one is available or hope one falls to No. 9.

DNVR’s draft analyst Andre Simone aptly compared this year’s class to the 2018 class where five quarterbacks were also taken in the first round. “You probably get two stars and a good starter, but who will it be,” he stated.

In 2018, the first (Baker Mayfield), third (Josh Allen) and fifth (Lamar Jackson) quarterbacks selected turned out to be successes. The second (Sam Darnold) and fourth (Josh Rosen) off the board, however, already have new teams.

This gives the Broncos hope that just because they won’t draft one of the first three quarterbacks — who are expected to be the first three picks of the draft — that they can still land one of the best performing quarterbacks of the draft even by taking the fourth or potentially fifth quarterback in the first round.

If first-round quarterback isn’t the move, then expect the Broncos to use either a third-round pick or a Day 3 pick to acquire competition for Drew Lock. That pick, however, won’t be used to draft a quarterback. Instead, it will be used to trade for either Gardner Minshew, Teddy Bridgewater or Nick Foles.

George Paton has told the world he is going to make a move at quarterback. But what type and how big of a move is still very much unknown.

Paton can shake up the organization for years to come by making a splash in the first round or make a much more muted move by acquiring a veteran signal caller. The answer will likely be apparent with what happens in the first round.