Broncos-centric observations from the first round of the NFL Draft

 

Are Jared Goff and Carson Wentz truly worth that much more than Paxton Lynch?

First off let’s talk quarterbacks, we knew these would be the picks so there’s really no surprise there. But is either of these two worth the kings ransom the Rams and Eagles gave up for them? On the surface the answer is no, of course, only time will tell. But these aren’t your Luck and RGIII or Winston and Mariota-type top-two picks at the quarterback position. Just think, midway through the college football season as Goff was coming off a five-pick performance against Utah and Wentz was dealing with a wrist injury that seemed likely to keep him out the rest of the year, it was Lynch who was on top of the college football world, taking little known Memphis to new heights and amazing scouts with his unbelievable arm and upside. Lots can change in half a season and even more in the draft process, but are these players abilities that different only five months later? A question worth asking. By the way, there are still several analyst who have Lynch as a top-two QB in this class ahead of either Goff or Wentz.

Bosa makes the AFC West the pass-rushing Division:

The Broncos and Chiefs already had great pass rushing duos (if not trios), Oakland has Khalil Mack and just added Bruce Irving on top of the suspended Aldon Smith. San Diego was the odd man out and just added an edge rushing stud and the draft’s best at the position. Bosa’s fit in San Diego’s 3-4 is unclear but, if the Chargers are smart they already have a plan in mind and will find ways to unleash Bosa. Life for offensive tackles and quarterbacks in out West just got a little harder.

The Trades:

Before the Draft clock even started ticking we already had three trades in the top ten. On Thursday night, we had five more two of which included AFC West playoff teams. The biggest surprise and price paid (a third and 2017 second-rounder) was Tennessee’s move up from 15th to the Browns eighth pick to take Jack Conklin and not Laremy Tunsil. The rest of the trades had much smaller returns and the Broncos actually paid the highest price of all, as they gave up a late third rounder (the team didn’t have any 4th round picks) while all other trades where for no higher then a fourth, quarterbacks don’t come cheap.

The rest of the Division:

As mentioned, the Chiefs traded away their first-round pick to move down nine spots to the 49ers second round pick (pick 37) and received a modest fourth and sixth round return. We’ll see what they do tomorrow. The Raiders surprised by taking Karl Joseph, the infectious West Virginia strong safety. He’s a fun player to watch, but is undersized and has had some injury issues throughout his collegiate career. One has to wonder if that was really a better pick than Myles Jack who also has injury question marks, but is bigger and more versatile. While the Paxton Lynch pick is no guarantee, no one else in the division looks definitively improved after tonight. That’s a good thing for the champs.

The part of the draft that was a reach fest:

Just like I said with the quarterbacks, ultimately only time will tell with the draft. But if I’m giving my knee jerk reactions, things got a little off track from pick eight to 11 and again from pick 14 to 18. Conklin is my 16ths-best player in the class and that’s not a crazy reach at eight, but Tunsil is the best offensive tackle I’ve ever studied on tape, does a dumb video from five years ago really matter that much if at all?

The Bears traded up to nine to get Leonard Floyd, the edge rusher they desperately needed, the only problem is Floyd has never racked up more than six sacks in a season and is extremely raw. He went at nine but was my 29th-ranked player in this draft right behind Paxton Lynch.

Hargreaves isn’t a reach if you look at other analysts rankings, but I’m on the record as being less high on him. In a Division with monster sized wideouts like Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess, and Julio Jones the smaller Hargraves seems like an odd fit and a bit high at eleventh overall.

The Giants taking Eli Apple was probably the biggest reach of all in the top-ten and New York has gotten bad value in the top ten in consecutive years with Apple and Flowers. That’s a recipe to keep drafting high.

We’ve talked about the Raiders pick already and while Corey Coleman, Taylor Decker, and Ryan Kelly are a bit of reach according to my Board they weren’t horrible picks just a bit higher than expected considering who was still left. Keanu Neal from Florida going seventeenth to Atlanta was a bit more of a reach and surprise. He’s another great safety who’s fun to watch but he’s a bit one-dimensional and isn’t the greatest value at this point, wouldn’t five years of Myles Jack pre-surgery be better than ten of Neal’s?

My favorite picks:

I really thought Jalen Ramsey at the fifth overall pick was a great value. He’ll most likely play corner in base formations but the Jaguars swear they’ll use him out the slot as well, a position where he can be a playmaker. The top player on my board is a great value and fits the exact prototype of Seahawks/Bradley press-corner, with some added versatility to boot.

The whole Laremy Tunsil video saga is the craziest thing I’ve ever seen go down on draft day. Him slipping at thirteen seems like amazing value for Miami who appears to have simply benefitted from a kid’s bad decision. Getting a top-five talent at thirteen in a premium position is great value regardless of the PR fiasco this could turn into the next couple days.

Clemson edge rusher and national leader in tackles-for-loss Shaq Lawson was rumored to have dropped in the draft due to his injured shoulder that might require surgery and could sideline him for four to six months. That news still needs to be confirmed. Regardless, this is another great value for my ninth best player at a premium position to slip all the way to nineteen.

Darron Lee at twenty was another great selection, according to my Board, as he was the seventh best player in this class. Lee is raw but has endless talent and a great skill set for today’s NFL. In Bowles defense, he could be an added weapon on blitzes and transformed into a Deone Bucannon type hybrid Safety/Linebacker playmaker.

The best players available:

The second round of the Draft is where a team truly wins or loses the draft. You might have reached in the first but if you make up for it with two top 50 values in the second day that reach doesn’t really matter anymore.

Here’re my best players available after the first-round:

Note players in bold are potential Broncos targets who are still around

Top Ten (Potential future Pro Bowlers top five players at their positions)

1. Myles Jack, LB, UCLA

First-Rounders (High-level starters)

2. A’Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama

3. Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson

4. Javon Hargrave, DT, South Carolina State

Late First-Round – Early Second-Round talent (Projected starters)

4. Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State*

5. Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor

6. Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama

8. Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama

Second-Rounders (immediate contributors and should be starters within first two seasons)

9. Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana

10. Su’a Cravens, OLB/S, Southern California

11. Cody Whitehair, OT/G, Kansas State

12. Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama

13. Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky*

14. Kamalei Correa, EDGE, Boise State

15. Jonathan Bullard, DE, Florida

16. Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State

17. Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson

18. Kyler Fackrell, OLB, Utah State

19. Maliek Collins, DT, Nebraska

20. Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame*

21. Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State

22. Shilique Calhoun, DE/OLB, Michigan State

23. Deion Jones, OLB, Louisiana State

24. Vonn Bell, FS, Ohio State

25. Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma

26. Adolphus Washington, DT, Ohio State*

27. Willie Henry, DT, Michigan

28. Sean Davis, CB/S, Maryland

29. Rashard Higgins, WR, Colorado State

30. Darian Thompson, S, Boise State

31. Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh