Broncos by the numbers: If not for ankle injury, Noah Fant's breakthrough might have already happened

The numbers compiled by Noah Fant in 2019 were by one across-the-board measure the best for any first-round tight end in the last quarter-century. They offered promise for what he and the Broncos expected in 2020.

Here’s the good: Fant led the Broncos with 62 receptions. His catch and receiving-yardage (673) tallies were the most for a Denver tight end since Julius Thomas — enough to demonstrate that the Broncos’ recent revolving door at the position has stopped turning.

But Fant left 2020 believing that he should have done more. That opinion could be illuminated by the production of Iowa teammate T.J. Hockenson, a fellow 2019 first-rounder who rode to a Pro Bowl selection via a 67-catch, 723-yard, 6-touchdown campaign for Detroit.

“It definitely wasn’t what I was expecting it to be,” Fant said last month as he reflected on the campaign just completed.

“There was a lot of struggles throughout the season — I’ve had injuries — there’s been a plethora of things, but I think I made the best of what I could and I’m just obviously looking to improve anywhere that I can.”

Fant said he began dissecting the film of his entire season over the final two weeks of the regular season. He did so with what he described as a “very critical” eye.

But the reality for Fant was that he spent much of the season dealing with an ankle injury he suffered in the Week 4 win over the New York Jets. He missed just one game because of it, although he also at out the final three-and-a-half quarters against Carolina in Week 14 after taking ill with the same gastrointestinal disquiet that struck teammate Garett Bolles.

Nevertheless, there was a clear production gap between Fant before the injury and after.

In Weeks 1-4, he averaged 4.8 receptions for 54.8 yards per game and 0.5 touchdowns per game, with an average of 11.5 yards per catch. That production put him on pace for a 76-catch, 876-yard, 8-touchdown season that would have been the most productive campaign for a Broncos tight end in receptions and yards since Shannon Sharpe in 1997.

After the injury, Fant’s pace in the 10 full games he played dropped to 4.3 receptions for 45.4 yards and 0.1 touchdowns per game, with a per-catch average of 10.6 yards. That tally was buoyed by per-game averages of 6.0 receptions, 60.3 yards and 0.3 touchdowns in Weeks 15-17 — a point at which he was finally beginning to emerge from the worst of the ankle injury.

Still, it was hard to ignore the fact that his explosiveness and ability to turn short passes into marathon gains was sapped by the injury.

“It sucked. My ankle definitely wasn’t at 100 percent and I knew that going into it — talking to the training staff and everybody, I was just going to grind through it,” Fant said last month. “That’s why I had my ankles constantly spatted up, trying to keep that thing as healthy as possible and it was frustrating, but I just kind of had to get through it.

“I was still able to make it work. I definitely wasn’t able to cut and move as well as I wanted to, but I was definitely able to be out there and able to make it work, so that was the biggest thing for me.”

Promise comes in what Fant was at the beginning and the end of the campaign.

It also comes from his improved drop rate. After dropping three of 43 catchable passes as a rookie — a rate of one every 14.3 opportunities — Fant improved to one drop every 21.7 chances, with the same number of drops spread over 65 catchable passes.

“I think there’s definitely improvement, definitely a lot more room for improvement, but that’s the game — year two, chasing greatness and trying to trying to get amongst the top in the league and amongst the top to do it at the position,” Fant said. “I’m not saying I have a lot of time, but I’m still learning and still getting through this, and I’m definitely hungry for greatness right now, which is a good thing to have.”

Indeed, time is ticking. At this time next year, the Broncos will face the decision as to whether to pick up his fifth-year option.

Fant’s production matters.

But so will the toughness he showed in battling through the ankle injury. And in the four games at the season’s dawn and the three at the end, he showed he could be among the NFL’s most productive pass-catching tight ends. Pro-rate Fant’s production from those seven games over 16 games, and you have an 85-catch, 914-yard, 7-touchdown season.

That would make Fant elite, giving him the Broncos’ answer to AFC West tight-end kingpins Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. It would also make the Broncos’ fifth-year option decision an easy one.