Broncos by the numbers: Expect Jerry Jeudy's drop rate to improve

Jerry Jeudy was targeted more than any other Broncos receiver in 2020, and more often than any Broncos rookie since Eddie Royal in 2008, when he emerged as the team’s No. 2 receiver in a Jay Cutler-powered passing offense.

He also endured a higher percentage of off-target passes thrown his direction than all but one of 127 players league-wide who were targeted at least 50 times last year, according to the data compiled by Pro Football Focus. Of the 110 times he was targeted, 52 passes were caught and 12 were dropped, leaving 48 passes uncatchable — a 41.8-percent figure that was only exceeded by Cincinnati’s A.J. Green.

In Jeudy’s final six games with Drew Lock at quarterback, 40.5 percent of the 42 passes thrown to him were uncatchable, per PFF’s data. Seven of them were dropped, including five in Week 16 against the Chargers, giving him a drop rate of 16.7 percent in those games.

Frustrating? Yes. And with the five drops against the Chargers, some of it was self-inflicted. That day ensured that he would finish with a season-long drop rate among wide receivers with at least 50 targets that was exceeded by only his fellow Broncos draft pick, K.J. Hamler.

But don’t expect it to last. Drop percentages usually improve from the first to the second year — especially with the Broncos. Take the progression of Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant in recent years, based on drop data compiled by Pro Football Focus:

COURTLAND SUTTON:

• 2018: 17.6 percent (1 every 5.7 catchable passes)
• 2019: 4.0 percent (1 every 25 catchable passes)

TIM PATRICK:

• 2018: 14.8 percent (1 every 6.8 catchable passes)
• 2019: 5.9 percent (1 every 17 catchable passes)
• 2020: 0.0 percent (no drops in 51 opportunities)

NOAH FANT:

• 2019: 6.5 percent (1 every 14.3 catchable passes)
• 2020: 4.6 percent (1 every 21.7 catchable passes)

Now, consider the pattern of other Alabama wide receivers selected in the first round, taking a look at their play over the length of their rookie contracts:

JULIO JONES:

• 2011: 11.6 percent (1 every 8.6 catchable passes)
• 2012: 7.7 percent (1 every 13 catchable passes)
• 2013: 10.9 percent (1 every 9.2 catchable passes)
• 2014: 7.1 percent (1 every 14.0 catchable passes)

AMARI COOPER

• 2015: 20.0 percent (1 every 5.0 catchable passes)
• 2016: 5.6 percent (1 every 18.0 catchable passes)
• 2017: 17.2 percent (1 every 5.8 catchable passes)
• 2018: 6.4 percent (1 every 15.7 catchable passes)

CALVIN RIDLEY

• 2018: 11.1 percent (1 every 9.0 catchable passes)
• 2019: 4.5 percent (1 every 22.0 catchable passes)
• 2020: 9.1 percent (1 every 11.0 catchable passes)

All improved in their second years. All had some regression in their third seasons, although their drop rates did not revert to the rate of their rookie seasons. Jones and Cooper both had substantial improvement that they maintained in subsequent years; Cooper has dropped just 5.5 percent of his on-target passes since his fifth season (one every 18.1 catchable passes), while Jones has dropped 6.9 percent of his on-target passes since his fifth year (one every 14.5 catchable passes).

Assuming Jeudy has the same improvement shown by his fellow Alabama receivers, one can reasonably expect that he will never endure a campaign like his rookie season again.

Better days are ahead for Jeudy.