Breaking down what Colorado should do with their own free agents

26.

That’s the number of players in the Avalanche organization that don’t currently have contracts for next season. The maximum limit is 50 and most teams spend the season in the 48 range. All this means is Colorado’s front office has plenty of work to do in making decisions on some futures here.

Let’s jump into a breakdown of who needs re-signing and which players they are likely to bring back and let go.

NHL Roster

Derick Brassard (UFA) – It was an iffy roll of the dice at the trade deadline to acquire a player who had fallen off so hard in both Pittsburgh and Florida and his addition to Colorado made very little impact overall. He slowly worked his way down the lineup, spending most of his playoffs on the fourth line. Across regular season and playoffs, he scored just five points in 29 games (4g, 1a). The Avs gave up a third-round selection for those five points so it’s easy to say that didn’t work out. If they don’t sign Brassard, they will receive a sixth-round pick from Florida.

Verdict: Expect that pick to be conveyed. There is no legitimate reason to sign Brassard.

Colin Wilson (UFA) – For about 60 games or so, this was a pretty easy decision. Wilson struggled to stay healthy, was moved around the lineup frequently, and failed to carve out a consistent role. Then the switch flipped near the end of the season and he was an impact player in the run to secure a spot in the postseason. Then the playoffs started and Wilson went to another level entirely, scoring eight points in 12 games (and a ninth that was infamously called back; cool rules, NHL). There’s a case to be made here.

Verdict: Let him test the market. His inability to consistently stay healthy in two years is a concern. He provides good work along the wall and in front of the net, which Colorado lacks in general. Reality is his production doesn’t scream “Must re-sign” but he could be a solid guy to bring back in the second wave of free agency if the Avs miss out on other targets.

Gabriel Bourque (UFA) – A guy the Avs liked more than everyone else who watched their games, it’s obvious he has value in their eyes. He’s a fourth line player who just barely gets into games, though, and while he plays on the PK there’s a legitimate question as to how effective he really is on it. Is his PK work enough to justify the complete lack of offense he brings?

Verdict: No, I don’t think it does. Without any additions, Colorado’s fourth line could look quite a bit more dynamic than it often did this past year. With Vladislav Kamenev getting back to health, he could center the fourth line with Matt Nieto and A.J. Greer (or potentially another prospect) as his wings. That’s a line with way more upside. Bourque did well to continue to earn one-way deals from the Avalanche but it makes for the organization to move on now.

Patrik Nemeth (UFA) – One of the better finds in recent years from Colorado’s pro scouting department, Nemeth has been nothing short of a warrior on Colorado’s bottom pairing the last two years. There is absolutely nothing he did wrong here but he’s become the victim of a numbers game. With Makar taking his spot in the lineup next season, Mark Barberio and Ryan Graves can serve as the 7th/8th D on the back end.

Verdict: He walks. He should have a legit market, too. Teams are always desperate for competent help to shore up their defense and Nemeth could absolutely be that guy. For once, Colorado’s depth makes it easy to let a quality defender go. Nemeth’s work should be rewarded on the open market.

Semyon Varlamov (UFA) – It ultimately ended up playing out more or less how the Avalanche hoped it would. Philipp Grubauer eventually took the starter’s job, led the Avs to the playoffs, and even upped his level of play once there. Varlamov, meanwhile, faltered in March as he tried to recreate the excellence he displayed in leading Colorado to its late-season playoff surge a year ago. It’s obvious whose net it is now.

Verdict: Joe Sakic seemed to make it pretty clear in his presser earlier this week that Varlamov will not be a priority. He said he will stay in touch with Varlamov as July 1 free agency plays out. Varly will look for greener pastures elsewhere.

Sven Andrighetto (RFA) – Andrighetto had his opportunities to prove it in the NHL. They moved him around the lineup and tried to make it work. Ultimately he landed as an odd-man out once the playoffs rolled around. The greatest indictment of his future came when the Avs rolled out an 11-forward lineup in the playoffs with Andrighetto a healthy scratch. To me, that said it all.

Verdict: Andrighetto does not receive a qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent.

Alexander Kerfoot (RFA) – Kerfoot is arbitration eligible and I think that’s where this probably goes. Kerfoot has two 40-point seasons in the first two years of his NHL career. He’s a maddening player at times because he’s involved in so many scoring opportunities that don’t result in goals but…he’s also involved in so many scoring opportunities. He’s not a guy who gets caved in defensively and he actually emerged as Colorado’s best faceoff man this past season. He’s an interesting player as he’s more of a classic ‘tweener than a true top-six guy but numbers don’t lie.

Verdict: He’ll definitely be back. I expect one of the sides to file for arbitration and for them to settle before a hearing ever takes place. Kerfoot is a valuable commodity as he’s the only forward outside the top line to record 40 points the last two years. His secondary scoring is an important element to achieving better balance on this offense. He shouldn’t go anywhere.

Vladislav Kamenev (RFA) – Injuries have stolen the last two seasons from him so who he is as an NHL player is still entirely up in the air. The only reputation he’s earned so far is injury-prone and that’s always a questionable designation. Is he brittle or just unlucky? Either way, the Avs don’t really know who he is yet but there’s no reason to give up on him yet.

Verdict: He gets a qualifying offer (QO), probably signs it, and comes back for a third try at earning a full-time NHL job.

J.T. Compher (RFA) – Like Kerfoot, he has arbitration available to him and he’s absolutely coming back. What his contract looks like is up for debate but there’s no doubting he’ll be back.

Verdict: They will offer him a QO for now and then begin hammering out an actual contract. This is another potential arbitration case for Colorado. A bridge deal here would make plenty of sense.

Mikko Rantanen (RFA) – He does not have arbitration available to him this year and his agent has strongly hinted at bridge deals for his two high-profile clients this summer (Rantanen and Patrik Laine). This could be a lengthy negotiation.

Verdict: He’s obviously staying.

Ryan Graves (RFA) – This kid was a revelation for Colorado. Needing a boost on the blue line, Graves finally got his call-up and he did what he had to do in order to force the Avs to keep him the rest of the season. He’s young and he proved to be a quality bottom-pairing defender. While he’s certainly not better than any of Colorado’s current top-six guys, he’s quality depth and young enough that he could be around for a while.

Verdict: Definitely receives a QO. He’s going to compete in training camp for the same job he finished the season with.

Nikita Zadorov (RFA) – The heavy-hitting Russian machine is set for another contract showdown with Colorado’s front office. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out because arbitration is on the table this time around and I can’t imagine it doesn’t come into play. The complete lack of offense from Zadorov means there’s a hard ceiling on how high his contract can realistically be. This is going to be a fascinating deal to follow.

Verdict: It may not be a pretty process but this one will eventually get done. Big Z should be patrolling Colorado’s blue line for another couple of years, minimum.

AHL Roster

Max McCormick, Andrew Agozzino, Scott Kosmachuk (UFA): McCormick was acquired midseason for J.C. Beaudin and did the veteran thing for the Eagles (I guess? He wasn’t very good) while Kosmachuk was okay as their annual AHL free agent that stops by for one year. Agozzino grew up in the Avalanche organization and in my eyes shouldn’t be going anywhere. Just keep him and let him continue to be a face of the Eagles as they continue to add more prospects to the group.

Verdicts: Lose McCormick and Kosmachuk, keep Agozzino.

David Warsofsky (UFA): After appearing for the Avalanche in the playoffs, Warsofsky didn’t see any action in Denver this season. Given they rotated a number of players from the Eagles into the NHL lineup at some point, that’s a pretty clear indication of where this is headed.

Verdict: Warsofsky walks.

Pavel Francouz (UFA) – Francouz was excellent as the starter for the Eagles in his first season in North America. With Varlamov likely departing the organization, I fully expect the Avalanche to target him as their potential NHL backup behind Grubauer. Sakic said they would begin contacting agents and working through negotiations this week and next. I imagine Francouz is one of the first phone calls he should make.

Verdict: Bring him back. 100%.

Julien Nantel, A.J. Greer, Sheldon Dries, Dominic Toninato (RFA) – This is a pretty clean group overall. Nantel has been around for a while and it just really isn’t working out for him. Greer just had his best season in the AHL and should be loudly knocking on the NHL’s door next season. Dries appeared in more games for the Avs (40) than the Eagles (25) in the regular season. I expect those numbers flip next year. Toninato had a solid overall year and certainly did enough to warrant keeping around.

Verdicts: Nantel leaves, Greer and Toninato definitely stay. The tough call here I think is Dries. Is he in the NHL plans? Or is he more quality AHL depth at 25? If he comes back, there needs to be a real plan in place. I could just as easily see the organization moving on from him but this is one of the few true toss-ups in my eyes.

Mason Geertsen, Anton Lindholm, Sergei Boikov (RFA) – This trio of drafted players seems like they have all run their course for Colorado. Of course, the Avs need somebody to play on the defense next to Nic Meloche and Mark Alt (Conor Timmins, too, we all hope) next season. Lindholm and Boikov could have options back in their home countries they might prefer. I’ve actually liked Geertsen’s overall development so keeping him out of this trio is my favorite option. Boikov’s friendship with Kamenev and Igor Shvyrev is another wrinkle that could help keep him around another year.

Verdicts: I say keep Geertsen and let Lindholm and Boikov explore other options but the Avs might value some of the off-ice value Boikov brings to the organization.

Spencer Martin (RFA): There are still flashes of greatness from Martin, including his legendary 68-save shutout last season for the Eagles. Those flashes are just that, though, and he doesn’t play at a high enough level consistently. The team has already signed Adam Werner to come over from Sweden and compete for one of the jobs with the Eagles. I’m just not sure what the organization would be hoping to get from Martin in bringing him back unless he simply has no other offers and would rather play for the Utah Grizzlies in the ECHL.

Verdict: Have to let him go. It simply didn’t work out but Martin should really be able to continue finding work. He’s a pro-caliber goalie, just not an NHL-caliber one.

The 26th player was goaltender Joe Cannata, who recently signed in Sweden.

---

That does it for the predictions on the current roster. As the summer progresses, we’ll get into more of the free agency process and which players from other teams the Avalanche should be keeping tabs on.