Breaking down the best and worst fits for the Avs on the trade market

This piece was written by guest contributor Dayton Buchanan

When General Manager Joe Sakic and the Colorado Avalanche acquired Devon Toews and Brandon Saad this off-season two things were confirmed: 

1. The Avalanche were ready to go all in. Their self-perception matched the public perception, they were legitimate cup contenders, and after years of careful cap-management and asset accumulation, it was time to treat each new season as one in which the Avalanche were expected to win the Stanley Cup.  
2. The Avalanche have an identity.
   

In acquiring Toews the avalanche solidified what would become one of the best defences in the NHL and added a player that before he had ever played a game in an Avalanche jersey had no question regarding how he would fit in on the Avalanche blue-line. Toews skates well, has fantastic defensive suppression metrics, and some of the league’s best transition stats.

Saad provides more than a veteran presence and playoff experience. A player who was nicknamed “Man-Child” while playing in Chicago, Saad has long been praised for his defensive responsibility, and with a big frame, and career 14% above league average impact on driving expected goals per 60, it was incredibly easy to foresee the havoc Saad-Kadri-Burakovsky would cause as a 2nd line.  

These moves highlight what has turned Colorado around from the season-which-must-not-be-named to the “favourites or whatever” as Nathan MacKinnon would put it, the entire organization appears to be in sync. The front-office has acquired players which they know will complement the way that head coach Jared Bednar wants to play, and Bednar has coached a suppression, transition, execution-style that has gotten the most out of seemingly every player that has dressed for the Avalanche (as long as we agree to collectively forget the Marko Dano experiment).  

This makes the trade deadline an interesting proposition for the Avalanche, it’s not as simple as “go get a good player.” If the front office decides to add another player (they’ve already added two!) before the April 12th deadline, how that player fits into the Avalanche roster construction is more important than that player’s individual talent. There’s a reason Tampa Bay was able to seamlessly integrate Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow into their lineup on route to their Stanley Cup last season, they were not only good players but good players whose style fit right into Tampa Bay’s system.  

While the trade deadline is a moment of opportunity, oftentimes that opportunity is for organizations to shoot themselves in the foot. With that being said, let’s look at some targets who fit the Avs the best, some underrated possibilities, and some landmines they should avoid.  

Centres 

The Big Fish: Mikael Granlund 

To say the last three years in Nashville haven’t gone according to plan for Granlund is an understatement. Having left Minnesota (yuck) as a first-line player, he has since seen his production drop from the 69 points he scored in 2016-17, to just 41 points over the combined last two seasons. For whatever reason, Granlund just hasn’t worked in Nashville’s system. While the third line of Nichushkin-Jost-Donskoi has been excellent for Colorado as of late, if you aren’t buying that the production stays as consistent as it has; Granlund still drives offence at 4% above league average and is above league average in shot assists. In a 3rd line role, and as a distributor on the 2nd powerplay unit Granlund could turn back the clock to his pre-Nashville self.  

The Underrated Gem: Colin Blackwell 

Blackwell is the rare case of a player who has thrived under the coaching of David Quinn. The Rangers forward came into this season just hoping to solidify an NHL roster spot and has done that and more in the 29 games he’s player this season. Blackwell has played steady 3rd line minutes all season and has made the most of those minutes thus far, the 28-year-old right-handed pivot has 10 goals and 4 assists. He has shown a strong finishing ability, drives offence at 5% above league average, and suppresses opponent’s offence 5% better than league average. Combine that with the fact that by data gather by InStat, Blackwell has been an elite NHL player in transition, both exiting and entering the zone with possession at elite rates. All this, as well as his barely over league minimum cap-hit of $725K for this season and next, makes Blackwell a very appealing addition to Colorado’s bottom 6.   

The Landmine: Luke Glendening 

If NHL games were decided based off whoever won more faceoffs, then Glendening would be one of the best players in the league. Unfortunately for him, they are not. Glendening has carved out a solid career in Detroit, and now finds himself on seemingly every trade bait board. The Avalanche should go right ahead and skip his name though. He drives offence 12% below league average, is a hard 4th line player, and he’s poor on the penalty kill. When adding a centre you have to ask, is he better than Tyson Jost? Is he better than Pierre-Edouard Bellemare? In the case of Glendening, the answer to both is a resounding no. It just isn’t worth the acquisition cost to fill a role that is already taken care of.  

Left Wingers 

The Big Fish: Jake Debrusk 

DeBrusk seems to have fallen out of favour with the Bruins organization, and if they decide to finally move the 23-year-old winger he seems like he’d be an excellent fit in Colorado. DeBrusk has seen his production and defensive impacts take a slight hit this season, but at only 23 years old he already plays the mature style that Colorado adores. He’s strong in transition and on the forecheck while playing very strong deep defensive coverage. On top of this DeBrusk is above league average in both the volume of shots he takes and finishing ability. At a modest cap hit for the rest of this season and next DeBrusk could bring strong defence, scoring, and an edge to Colorado in a middle 6 role. As long as he and Kadri don’t kill each other.  

The Underrated Gem: Eric Robinson 

If you’re the type of hockey fan who is worried about Colorado inevitably matching up against Vegas and their old-school 4th line in the playoffs, Eric Robinson is a player you will love. The modern version of a Ryan Reeves or Will Carrier, Robinson will not provide a ton of offence, he currently has 11 points in 40 games this season, but he has very strong defensive suppression numbers, driving 8% below league average expected goals against at 5v5.

Robinson, despite being a poor passer, is responsible with the puck on his stick and plays a low-risk game. He’s fine in transition, makes a lot of hits, forechecks aggressively, and is 6’2 200lbs who has elite defence while only taking 1 penalty all year. Robinson would provide smart, physical depth. 

The Landmine: Ryan Dzingel 

A guy who was one of the talks of the deadline a few years ago, Dzingel once again is a feature on many trade bait boards, as he’s a UFA at the end of the season. Two years ago, there was a bit of an appetite amongst fans for the Avalanche to add him at the deadline, this time around there are way too many red flags with Dzingel that the Avs should absolutely be steering clear. This first problem: fit. There isn’t a single winger in the Avalanche top 9 that I would bump down to make room for Dzingel, that leaves him on the 4th line, and as a guy who doesn’t drive play at either end of the ice it’s a pointless acquisition.

Donskoi is a guy who has poor defensive underlying numbers, but he’s fantastic in transition, and he produces, this gives him a clear role on whatever line he’s on. Dzingel is around average defensively, below average in transition, and far below average at driving offence. Twice in his career, he’s scored twenty goals, but he’s struggled to produce, or stay healthy in the last two seasons. All that, plus a $3,375,00 cap hit, which could limit the ability of the Avalanche to make any other additions, and it paints a picture of a guy who absolutely should not be wearing burgundy and blue this season. 

Right Wingers 

The Big Fish: Sam Reinhart 

If Colorado wants to go crazy, it should go crazy in this direction. Buffalo is a tire fire, and if Joe Sakic and Co decide to pluck that carcass, Sam Reinhart should be the #1 target. Reinhart is a guy who would slide seamlessly into Colorado’s system, and give them an embarrassment of riches in the top 6.

Reinhart is everything you could want in a top 6 winger, he drives defensive results, 6% better than the league average in xG. He’s excellent in transition as one of the league’s best forwards at exiting the zone with possession according to inStat. He puts up at least 50 points a season like clockwork, with his career-high 65 points coming in 2018-19. Reinhart is right in the heart of his prime at 25 years old and is an RFA at the end of this season. He will need a raise, likely somewhere in the $6,000,000 per year range, and would add another player to protect in the Seattle expansion draft this off-season. Those are all serious issues the front office would need to address.

However, those issues would be addressed after the season, and if you are focusing solely on this season, there are few players (who could realistically be had) who could increase Colorado’s chances of winning the Stanley Cup more than Reinhart. He’s young, talented, plays an Avalanche brand of hockey, and wants the hell out of Buffalo. Reinhart could be Colorado’s Marian Hossa.  

The Underrated Gem: Andrew Mangiapane 

When I said few players could increase Colorado’s chances of winning the cup more than Sam Reinhart, the reason that sentence said “few” instead of “no” is Andrew Mangiapane. Mangiapane has been a bright spot this season on a Calgary team desperate for them. The 25-year-old currently has 21 points in 40 games, and while playing 2nd line minutes has some of the best offensive and defensive impacts in the NHL.  

With a modest Cap-Hit of $2,425,000 for this season and next Mangiapane would be very reminiscent of the Blake Coleman addition for Tampa Bay last season. While not fantastic in transition, Mangiapane would likely need to play with someone who carries the puck well. Luckily, the Avalanche has plenty of those. Mangiapane can play throughout the lineup and would also mitigate the loss of Saad in free agency in the offseason. The first person who can come up with a reason why the Avalanche shouldn’t target Mangiapane will have my respect forever, because for the life of me I can’t come up with one.  

The landmine: Mike Hoffman 

Since the Blues have seen their playoff hopes get crushed, in part due to the Avalanches back-to-back wins against them this week, they’re a new addition to the sellers list, and General Manager Doug Armstrong has shown an affinity for selling in the past, moving out Kevin Shattenkirk at the 2017 deadline, and Paul Stastny at the 2018 deadline. This season, Hoffman, who signed a 1-year $4,000,000 deal in January, appears to be his main trade chip. Hoffman, who has 21 points in 36 games this season, love him or hate him for it, is a player with an identity.

The six-time 20 goal scorer is a constant threat to score from the right side at 5v5, and on the powerplay. He is also a threat to do absolutely nothing defensively, and as we’ve seen in the past, that doesn’t fly under Jared Bednar’s watch. Hoffman is most effective on the ride side on the powerplay, a position which is occupied currently by Mikko Rantanen and Andre Burakovsky, two of the few players in the NHL with a better finishing ability than Hoffman.

He’s average in transition, suppresses the opponent’s offence below league average, doesn’t drive play, and is far below league average at completing passes in the offensive zone, in front of the net, and on the breakout. Hoffman is the definition of a passenger, and for a team whose head coach says he wants “no passengers” like he’s trying to fill a quota, Hoffman and the Avalanche just don’t make sense.  

Left-Defence 

The Big Fish: Mike Reilly 

I would have loved to talk about Mattias Ekholm here, but with the expansion draft problems it would cause, and Nashville’s recent surge in the standings, it just isn’t realistic. Reilly on the other hand is very realistic and very appealing. The Ottawa defender sees his current $1,500,000 contract expire at the end of this season, so he’s a pure rental. As far as defensive depth goes, few players fit Colorado more than Reilly.

He suppresses opponent’s offence 2% better than league average and drives offence at a stunning 17% above league average, Reilly is solid on the penalty kill and fantastic both in transition and as a puck distributor. He’s put up these stellar underlying numbers all while playing on the 2nd pair in Ottawa. Put him in Colorado’s system, and with a more appropriate 3rd pairing role, and it’s fair to assume he would thrive.  

The underrated Gem: Ben Hutton / Dimitry Kulikov 

If you could morph these two players into one defenceman you would be laughing all the way to the bank. Unfortunately, you can’t, but for the roles they would play for Colorado you aren’t too concerned about their respective shortcomings. They’re similar in size, and both would be playing 3rd pairing/ PK on the Avalanche. At 5v5 Hutton drives offence 4% above league average and suppresses opponents 4% worse than league average, whereas Kulikov drives offence at a league-average rate, but suppresses opponents 10% better than league average. Hutton is an excellent penalty-killer, driving suppression 6% better than league average, whereas Kulikov drives results 3% worse than league average.  

I think Hutton would be my preference, since he exits and enters the zone at above league-average rates, whereas Kulikov is slightly below league average. Hutton has also been one of the best defencemen in the league the last two seasons at defending against the rush, an area where MacDonald, Byram, and Girard have all struggled this season.  

Both Kulikov and Hutton would be smart, low-risk depth additions to Colorado’s back end.  

The Landmine: Alex Goligoski 

There is a lot to consider with Goligoski, primarily, his usage. Since the 2010-11 season he has played first pairing minutes, both in Arizona, and in Dallas. He also hasn’t been a positive play driver, either offensively or defensively, since the 2014-15 season. Currently, at 5v5, Goligoski drives offence at 2% below league average, suppresses opponents at 3% worse than league average, while having league average results on the penalty kill. Goligoski defends against the rush worse than any regular defenceman for Colorado, is poor in transition, and is an average skater.

None of these results are good, but, should be taken with a grain of salt since he has been playing as a 1st pairing defenceman for god-knows-what-reason. There is a chance that playing in Colorado as a depth option would lead to success for Goligoski; but with a $5,475,000 cap-hit, and Colorado having real cup aspirations, I don’t see the benefit in taking the risk that Goligoski represents. Especially when there are better options available.  

Right-Defencemen 

The Big Fish: David Savard (WAS TRADED YESTERDAY TO TAMPA BAY)

If you want an offensive defenceman you’ve come to the wrong place. Luckily, on a blue line with Cale Makar, Samuel Girard, and Devon Toews, that isn’t really what you’re lusting after in a deadline rental. In his career, and more importantly the last three seasons, the 30-year-old Savard has been a consistent suppression machine for Columbus. Currently driving suppression 5% better than league average at 5v5, and 2% better than league average on the PK.

He’s excellent defensively, except for against the rush, so he’s a natural fit in Colorado. Savard isn’t a great skater, so he has low zone entry results, but he exits the zone better than league average, and on a team like Colorado, where every forward line has a player who is elite in transition, all Savard has to do is put the puck on their stick, which he is more than capable of doing. Savard has steadily played 2nd pairing minutes in Columbus the last three seasons, and would likely be asked to play the same, potentially less depending on Bowen Byram’s health, in Colorado. At age 30, with 10 NHL seasons under his belt, 5 trips to the postseason, and still playing a heavy-hitting, shot-blocking style without hindering his team, Savard brings a lot to like to a Colorado team expecting a long playoff run.  

The Underrated Gem: Ilya Lyubushkin 

Lyubushkin is a player I have been fascinated with for a few years now. He’s never played more than third-pairing minutes in Arizona, has a whopping 10 points in 118 NHL games, but has been one of the league’s very best suppression defenders in that time. He’s 27 years old, signed for $1,000,000 which expires this offseason, and plays very, very, good defence.

Things Lyubushkin is bad at: skating, passing, transitioning the puck, shooting the puck.  

Things Lyubushkin is good at: rush defending, static defending, separating opponents from the puck, limiting scoring opportunities.  

He’s very unsexy, but as a hard 3rd pairing defensive defenceman, who gets 0 O-Zone starts, and gets thrown out there to do nothing other than defend, Lyubushkin could be a very smart depth addition for Colorado. He won’t cost much in a trade and will be a massive improvement on Dan Renouf. Why not! 

The Landmine: Brandon Montour (WAS TRADED YESTERDAY TO FLORIDA)

What an unfortunate last three seasons Montour has had since being acquired by Buffalo for a 1st (!!!) round pick in the 2018-19 season. Brought in to solidify Buffalo’s top 4 Montour has done the exact opposite. At 5v5 Montour drives offence at 4% below league average and suppresses opponents 6% worse than league average. On the PK Montour’s suppression improves, but remains 4% worse than league average. He grades out as being tied with Jack Johnson for the worst rush defencemen in the NHL, and he exits his zone well below league average.

Montour IS a very good skater, which has led to him being a very good puck-rushing defenceman, but on Colorado you would likely prefer to see any other defenceman not named Ryan Graves being the one carrying the puck into the offensive zone. Montour’s name has been a fixture on trade bait boards this season, and with an expiring deal and an awful Buffalo team it makes sense why. But for what Colorado is looking to add, and where they expect to go in the playoffs, Montour just doesn’t make sense.

Conclusion 

The Avalanche are arguably the league’s best team, and as evidenced by the 15-game point streak they just went on, they’re rolling right now.  

At the time of writing this: 

Colorado’s first line of Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen has a 5v5 xG% of 66.45% 

Their second line of Saad-Kadri-Burakovsky has a 5v5 xG% of 65.03% 

And their third line of Nichushkin-Jost-Donskoi has a 5v5 xG% of 73.82%  

They have been dominant, and there are very real questions over whether or not it’s smart to mess with chemistry that is clearly there. However, with the defensive injuries Colorado has sustained this year, it’s my opinion that they should be adding a depth defenceman, and I made it clear where I stand on the goalie situation.

No matter what the front office chooses to do, as long as they stick to the process that has gotten them to where they are right now, and trust the identity of the team they have built, Sakic and Co. are more than deserving of the benefit of the doubt, and Avalanche fans should be excited to watch the roster that gets iced in the playoffs, regardless of who’s on it.