Breaking down Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets' newest European import

According to Sportando.com, Nikola Jokic will sign a contract with the Denver Nuggets in the coming weeks, hopefully in time to play for the Nuggets’ in the Las Vegas Summer League which begins play July 10.

The 20-year-old, second-round pick of 2014 averaged 15.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game while taking home MVP honors for KK Mega Vizura of the Adriatic League last season.

After the 2014 draft, ESPN.com’s Kevin Pelton published his annual rookie Wins Above Replacement Player rankings which  projected Jokic at a 3.1 WARP. That ranked him fifth among all rookies going into last season, just behind Utah’s Dante Exum.

Pelton had this to say about Jokic:

Reports originally indicated Jokic would pull his name out of the draft before Monday’s deadline. But he stayed in, ostensibly after getting a draft promise. Whoever takes Jokic in the second round will be getting a top-five value, statistically.

When evaluating Jokic’s game it is apparent that he’s not at all like the Nuggets’ two recent European pick-ups in Joffrey Lauvergne or his eastern-European brethren Jusuf Nurkic. In fact, Jokic looks to be a happy medium between the two.

Strengths: Shooting

Jokic is a big body and every bit of the 6-11, 253 pounds he’s listed at. However his greatest skill is his jump shot and because of that he projects as a stretch four or five who can also venture into the lane for the occasional post-up or put-back.

Picture Jokic as the Atlanta Hawks’ Pero Antic crossed with Andrea Bargnani of the New York Knicks, someone who will drift around the perimeter looking for a kick-out or a pick-and-pop three but also has the ability to penetrate on occasion and finish at the rim.

Here’s Jokic knocking down a three from the top of the key. His release is smooth, his shot is straight up and down and his form is compact enough where there isn’t too much wasted motion:

Jokic is not simply just a catch-and-shoot big man. He can also come off quick-hitting screens and pin downs like he does here:

As teams across the league continue to structure their offenses around three-point shooting and spacing, Jokic may be entering the league at just the right time. He has a skill set that fits what is expected out of a modern stretch four or five and his awareness and length are perfect for the countless pick-and-pop situations he could find himself in next season.

Notice how Jokic drifts into the space vacated by his teammate and is able to knock down the three with perfect footwork and a quick release. He has the awareness to float to the three-point line, get his feet set and launch a jumper with form that mirrors his previous shots.

Strengths: Offensive and Defensive IQ

I’ve already touched on how Jokic excelled in Europe as both a standstill shooter and a pick-and pop-marksman, but he’s also an intelligent and crafty player able to make his presence felt on the offensive end in other ways.

Here’s Jokic in a classic single-high pick and roll, a set he will surely be used in next season with Denver:

As the screener, once Jokic makes contact with the on-ball defender he immediately notices the opposition’s help side has totally vacated the paint and instead of floating to the three-point line he dives to the hoop for an easy flush.

Defense, on the other hand, is where Jokic has some room to grow. But he’s shown some positive signs that he can be an adequate defender in the future.

Although he may struggle initially defending isolation post ups due to his quickness and limited athleticism, Jokic has still shown he at least knows where to be on the defensive end, especially when he needs to rotate over from a help-side position.

Here, at the 2014 Nike Hoops Summit, he displays perfect help-side positioning throughout the possession and finally makes a nice defensive stop rotating over from the weak side:

Weaknesses: Post Defense

While Jokic can come over effectively from the weak side and rotate to give his teammates help, he doesn’t have the quickest feet or first step which may make him vulnerable to a sudden shoulder or ball fake when defending in isolation post-up scenarios.

Here Jahlil Okafor takes Jokic to school down low:

Weaknesses: Athleticism

Jokic may be a plus athlete overseas in the Adriatic League, but the NBA is a different animal when it comes to big men and their athletic abilities.

His limited athleticism especially shows up when he’s battling for a rebound and it’s evident that Jokic’s quickness and timing on his second and third jumps aren’t quite up to speed yet.

Jokic has made a habit of using his wingspan and natural ability to grab rebounds, which works in Europe but doesn’t work in the NBA nor against the best college players in the nation, as is evident here versus former Texas Longhorn, Myles Turner:

It would be wise of Jokic to study tape of centers like Marc Gasol, Andrew Bogut and even his own teammate Jusuf Nurkic, who despite not having the greatest jumping abilities, all still use their bodies effectively to gobble up boards.

Jokic undoubtedly has the shot and basketball IQ to be a role player his rookie season in an up-tempo Denver offense that will play to his strengths.

His offense is already far enough along that he can be a plus offensively in the right system, but the real test will be if he can stay on the floor defensively.

Realistically, it’s unclear what positions Jokic will be able to guard in the NBA. He’s probably too slow laterally to guard playmaking fours, but not physical enough to battle with bulky fives down low.

While his offense is there already, what’s going to determine if he sticks with Denver and in the NBA is whether he has the work ethic and dedication to improve his quickness and defensive presence.

No matter the case, Jokic is an incredibly intriguing prospect with tons of upside and one the Nuggets were blessed to obtain so late in the draft. It’s likely his presence will only benefit the Nuggets in wining basketball games next season and if he’s able to hit his ceiling he could turn into a solid backup big down the road, or perhaps even a starter.