Boise State Preview: Exploring CSU’s path to victory against the Broncos

DENVER — Colorado State is looking to put a difficult loss to Utah State in the past and do something the program has never done before, which is beat Boise State. 

Winless in the previous 10 meetings, the CSU players and staff are more than aware of the history with the Broncos. They’re also itching to change it. 

Any time a team bullies you for a decade straight it’s going to lead to some serious motivation, and there’s no doubt that everyone in CSU’s locker room is sick and tired of falling short to their division foe. 

“We haven’t beaten Boise State. That’s the high water mark in the conference,” Steve Addazio said on Monday. “To their credit they’ve done it year in and year out. They’ve established that tradition, that watermark. So if you want to build your program, you want to try and get those wins against the premiere teams. They’re a premiere team.”

Beyond being a significant moment in program history, a win over Boise State would also have massive implications on the race in the Mountain Division. If the Green & Gold move to 3-1 against league competition, even after falling short to the Aggies last Friday, they’ll still have a shot to come out on top of the division standings.  It’s no guarantee as they’d obviously need to close out strong. But a win keeps the hope alive for CSU. Plus, it would all but bury Boise State, who hasn’t lost three league games in a single year since 2015. 

With all of this in mind, let’s look at the history between the two teams and explore what needs to happen in order for the Rams to come out on top. 

History of dominance 

While it may be painful for the Ram Faithful to acknowledge, Boise State has pretty much owned the Mountain West since joining the conference in 2011. Obviously they’re 10-0 against CSU but the Broncos only have 16 total losses to Mountain West teams in the last 11 years. What’s more, there isn’t a single team in the conference that owns a winning record against Boise State. The closest is San Diego State at 3-3. 

It’s not just the regular season that Boise State has controlled either. Before Utah State and San Jose State came over from the WAC, giving the league enough teams to add a title game, Boise State was co-champions with Fresno State and San Diego State in 2012.

Since the conference went to the current format in 2013, though, it’s been Boise State that has represented the Mountain Division in five of eight MW title games. They’re 3-2 in those title games, with the losses coming to Fresno State in overtime (2018) and then San Jose State (2020) in a flukey season impacted by the pandemic. 

The slip-ups

Outside of San Diego State, there have not really been any teams in the conference that have had the same type of sustained success as Boise State over the last decade. However, as good as the Broncos have been, they’ve only gone undefeated in league play one time. 

In 2019 they went 8-0 against the conference and what’s crazy is only Wyoming and Colorado State even stayed within a single score of them. It was pure domination. 

Every year aside from 2019, Boise State dropped at least one game against MW competition though. In 2011 it was TCU. SDSU took them down for the first time in 2012. Air Force has gotten them a couple of times over the years including this fall. It doesn’t happen all that often but the Broncos are mortal. 

Here’s a look at all the times they have fallen to Mountain West competition: 

League Losses

• TCU (36-35) | 2011
• SDSU (21-19) | 2012
• Fresno State (41-10) | 2013
• SDSU (34-31) | 2013
• Air Force (28-14) | 2014
• Utah State (52-26) | 2015
• New Mexico (31-24) | 2015
• Air Force (37-30) | 2015
• Wyoming (30-28) | 2016
• Air Force (27-20) | 2016
• Fresno State (28-17) | 2017
• SDSU (19-13) | 2018
• Fresno State* (19-16) | 2018
• San Jose State* (34-20) | 2020
• Nevada (41-31) | 2021
• Air Force (24-17) | 2021

CSU’s path to victory 

As we’ve already established, Boise State historically doesn’t lose league games very frequently. Well, they don’t lose that often, period. But as we’ve seen over the course of the 2021 season, the Broncos aren’t exactly playing like their typical dominant self. When you punch them in the mouth, you can stagger them a little bit. 

Luckily for Ram Nation, the type of football that has worked best against Boise State this season, and really most seasons, is a physical and aggressive approach that relies on ball control and quality defense. When teams like Air Force, SDSU, etc. go toe to toe with Boise State, it’s not because they’re as skilled, it’s because they’re the team that dictated the tone of the matchup. They’re the team that punched first and then never relented.

CSU is going to need to play similarly if they want to pick up the first-ever win over Boise State on Saturday. Offensively the Rams would certainly benefit from an efficient passing attack but getting the ground game going will be paramount. As will being able to connect on the shot plays when offensive coordinator Jon Budmayr dials them up.

If CSU can control possession by leaning on David Bailey, eventually it’s going to wear down the defense, especially if he runs as hard as he did against Utah State. But hitting the explosive plays is how the Rams can best optimize their chances of winning. Not only will it keep Boise State’s defense honest but it will also bring the crowd to life and swing the momentum. If you’re going to pull an upset, you have to strike when the opportunities are present. 

Another way to swing the momentum is obviously by creating turnovers. The Rams are going to play an aggressive brand of defense and because of that there will likely be a few plays that go against them. Much like the way CSU wears you down with the ground game on offense, however, the relentless pressure the Rams bring on defense tends to take a toll on opposing offenses and can definitely lead to mistakes. 

Kudos to Logan Bonner for taking an absolute beating last week and somehow staying in the game. Most quarterbacks can’t take that type of abuse though. And if the Rams can get after Hank Bachmeier in a similar fashion, it’s going to create opportunities for turnovers, big sacks, etc. The defense has carried CSU all year. The Rams definitely need their ‘A-game’ on Saturday.

Can you be perfect?

Finally, if the Rams are going to win, it’s going to take a nearly perfect performance. Although it’s a cliche, football really is a game of inches. A play here, a penalty there, can truly be what makes or breaks you. And when you’re an underdog the margin for error is even thinner. 

Last week we saw E.J. Scott drop what should have been an easy touchdown. The defense gave USU free plays repeatedly. There were issues with communication. It was just far too sloppy all around. Honestly, regardless of how it played out, the Rams were fortunate to even be in the game with how many little things they did wrong. 

Against a team like Boise State you aren’t going to be able to get away with those same types of errors. They’re too explosive and they’re too talented. It’s going to be so important that the Rams not only play aggressively but also intelligently and consistently.

This is a winnable game for CSU but it all comes down to execution. 

Game info

Kickoff: 5:00 p.m. MT (Canvas Stadium)

TV: CBSSN