Blazers-Nuggets battlegrounds

1. Jokic took 6 three-pointers in the first two meetings with the Blazers and 3 in the first half of the last game. It’s safe to assume he will attempt at least six threes in each game throughout this series. He might need to take even more. He’ll also have to convert them at a high rate. Nurkic isn’t a versatile defender but he is very good when he is allowed to roam the paint and block off driving lanes. He’s also a great rebounder. Both of those things become negated by having to run out at Jokic if he can make himself a serious threat.

Perhaps the most under-the-radar aspect of Jokic’s improvement this season has been his speed and agility off of the dribble. He’s always had the skill for a dribble-drive game but his improved speed, however slight, has made him deadly as a dual spot-up/pump-and-go threat. That will serve him well in this series if he can make himself enough of a threat to warrant a hard closeout.

2. The Blazers finished the season with the 2nd worst defense in the NBA but were around league average over their last 15 games. The return of Jusuf Nurkic has helped those numbers but the starting lineup still features just one reliable rim protector (Nurkic) and one mobile wing with length (Covington).

Jokic will draw Nurkic out onto the perimeter which means one of Porter or Gordon will have a major size advantage inside. The Nuggets will likely look to play through Gordon in the post whenever Covington is on Porter, forcing the Blazers’ two biggest players away from the paint. Gordon needs to convert those opportunities at a higher rate than usual. Equally as important will be his aggressiveness on the offensive glass.

Porter can also take advantage of these Gordon post touches by crashing the offensive glass hard. As good as Covington is as a defender, he’s not the most attentive rebounder.

3. It will be interesting to see how the Nuggets approach ball screens between the guards and forwards. In their most recent matchups, the Nuggets would send hard hedges and fight under with the guards. To do this properly against Lillard and McCollum, the guards will have to recover and attack the ball handler well above the three-point line. Meet them at or below the three-point line and you are vulnerable to Lillard logo threes and McCollum crossovers and stepbacks.

4. The Blazers may make the adjustment to go away from ball screens in the clutch, trusting Lillard to generate good looks for himself off of isolations. This is especially dangerous given Facu’s size. You can see in the clips below how easily Lillard gets to his spots and how little he is bothered by Facu’s contests.

5. The biggest challenge for Facu will be crowding Lillard’s space without fouling. Lillard is going to get calls like the one below, where Lillard draws marginal contact while Campazzo appears to be in legal guarding position. That’s just the NBA. It sucks, but there is no changing it. Campazzo did not foul out of a game this season but he did rack up 5 fouls in 5 different games, against Utah, Atlanta, Charlotte, Memphis, and Golden State. All of those teams feature elite guard play.

Conversely, Campazzo can’t afford to shy away and allow Lillard to take shots comfortably. Every attempt has to be challenged while remaining cautious not to over-pursue on-ball steals and deflections. It’s a tall task for a rookie but could be the biggest battleground in the entire series.