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Believe it or not, the Denver Broncos can forge a path to the playoffs. Here's how:

Andrew Mason Avatar
November 3, 2021
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“There’s a gleam, men,” the late Marty Schottenheimer told his Cleveland Browns in 1987.

Denver Broncos general manager George Paton did not use those words when he addressed the media on Tuesday, one day after the Broncos traded Super Bowl MVP, eight-time Pro Bowler, certain Ring of Famer and likely Pro Football Hall of Famer Von Miller.

Paton was real about the feeling of the moment and the pulse of the room and Broncos Country.

“We are 4-4. It feels like we’re 1-7,” he said.

But then he quickly added, “but we are 4-4 — and we’re right in the thick of it.”

The state of the Broncos in recent weeks may make one’s eyebrows arch at such a sentiment. But then you look around the room of teams in the playoff conversation in the AFC and you think, “He may have a point.

There are 11 teams at .500 or better in the AFC. The Broncos are one of them — coming in at the tail end of the cluster. But the best of those teams in the standings is 6-2, and that team, the Tennessee Titans, just lost its workhorse, Derrick Henry, regarded by many as the best running back in the NFL today.

And after the events of the last 48 hours, the Broncos have a path to the postseason — even with Miller now preparing to don blue and gold and rush passers in the shadow of LAX.

The path isn’t even incumbent upon stunning the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday — although a win at AT&T Stadium would do wonders for the battered morale of the team, organization and fan base.

That said, the Broncos must do better. Better than scoring just 16.2 points a game, as they have mustered since Week 4. Better than allowing first-possession touchdowns in three of their last four games. Better than six giveaways in the last three weeks.

“We were 3-0 at one time. Everyone thought we were the greatest thing since sliced bread,” Paton said. “It’s very fragile in this league. You lose one, it could add up. We’ve had a lot of injuries, [but] that’s not an excuse. That’s not an excuse, but we are getting some guys back.

“Despite everything that has happened to our football team, we’re 4-4. Not what we wanted, but I do think we’ll continue to improve.”

But it’s not just about the Broncos. Factors beyond Colorado have gathered to keep them in the race:

1. THE CHIEFS ARE MORTAL

Given a chance to pull themselves out of their mediocre form with a Monday-night home game against the battered New York Giants, Kansas City mucked around and finally escaped with a pedestrian 20-17 win that squared their ledger at 4-4 but did nothing to inspire confidence for them in a three-game stretch that includes a pair of contests against teams with just one loss: Green Bay and Dallas.

Long-term, Kansas City and Mahomes aren’t going anywhere. This is the type of season that most elite and all-time quarterbacks and their teams endure at some point — or at least those not named Joe Montana and Tom Brady.

  • The New Orleans Saints went 7-9 for three consecutive years (2014-17) with Drew Brees at the wheel.
  • The Green Bay Packers went 4-12 in 2005 and 6-9-1 in 2018 despite having Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers starting all 16 games in those seasons, respectively.
  • The Indianapolis Colts went 6-10 in 2001, Peyton Manning’s fourth season as their quarterback. He was never the starter for a team that won fewer than 10 games again.
  • And old-school Broncos fans surely remember their team’s 5-11 finish in 1990 with John Elway starting every game.

“These things happen,” as the late college-football commentator Carroll “Beano” Cook often said. For the Chiefs, they’re happening now.

2. CHARGERS GONNA CHARGER

Something I occasionally hear on social media and in comment sections is the long-held belief that the Chargers — no matter their home city, top-shelf quarterback or uniform — will find a way to “Charger” it up.

And when you really stop and think about it, their lack of accomplishment over the last 20 seasons with Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and now Justin Herbert at the helm is mind-blowing. Despite having a certain Hall of Famer, a likely Hall of Famer and a young quarterback off to perhaps the greatest start of any passer not surnamed Marino or Mahomes, the Chargers have a remarkably pedestrian collection of accomplishments: seven playoff appearances and five division titles — with none of those coming since 2009. The last time the Chargers had a home playoff game, Herbert was in sixth grade.

They’ve averaged 8.6 wins and 7.4 losses during that span. Ten of their last 19 season since Brees became the full-time starter in 2002 were either 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7. To “Charger” means to perpetually take one step forward and follow it with another step backward; that pattern persisted last month, with three consecutive wins followed by a blowout loss in Baltimore and a fall-from-ahead defeat to the Patriots.

On paper, the Chargers are probably the AFC West favorites. But their continued capacity for confounding results leaves the door ajar for someone — anyone — to walk through.

3. RAIDERS IN TUMULT

The human tragedy of the fatal Tuesday-morning car accident in Las Vegas involving Henry Ruggs III is what matters most. But there are football implications, as well, and with Ruggs facing a Felony B DUI charge and the potential of a prison sentence of at least two years if convicted, the Raiders lose the vertical-speed threat that was opening up their attack at all levels.

With Jon Gruden’s departure after the revelation of a series of racist, homophobic and misogynistic emails, no team has dealt with more tumult than the Raiders. They’ve won both of their games since Gruden’s resignation, averaging 33.5 points an outing after mustering just 23 points in the two games prior to Gruden’s exit. They should be all right this coming Sunday against the New York Giants, but then they face their toughest stretch of the season: three games in 12 days against the Chiefs, Bengals and Cowboys. That is when the loss of Ruggs’ downfield threat could catch up to them.

That’s what could help the Broncos.

Now, the bad:

1. THEY’RE ALREADY BEHIND IN TIEBREAKERS

Head-to-head losses at Pittsburgh and Cleveland put the Broncos on the wrong side of the fence if they end up deadlocked with either of those two teams. What they would need for a potential positive result against either of those teams in the I-76 rivalry is for team from another division — likely the New England Patriots — to wiggle their way into the mix, thus creating a three-way tiebreaker that would remove head-to-head results from the equation.

2. THEY HAVE A HOMELY COLLECTION OF WINS

Here are the records of teams beaten by the 11 AFC clubs at 4-4 or better:

  • Pittsburgh: 16-15 (.516)
  • L.A. Clippers: 15-16 (.484)
  • Las Vegas: 17-21 (.447)
  • Tennessee: 19-27 (.413)
  • Baltimore: 15-24 (.385)
  • Cincinnati: 13-23 (.361)
  • Cleveland: 11-21 (.344)
  • Kansas City: 11-21 (.344)
  • New England: 9-20 (.310)
  • Denver: 7-23 (.233)
  • Buffalo: 9-31 (.225)

The Broncos haven’t beaten a team that has a better record than the New York Jets’ 2-5 mark; they have lost to all four teams they’ve faced who currently have records of .500 or better, including to the .500 Browns, who played without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield and their top two running backs.

This sort of form will not suffice.

 

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