BadBall: Examining Colorado's late-game meltdowns

 

I often joke about the difficulty of winning games on the road in college basketball, begging Colorado fans not to get their hopes up with the knowledge that they will be eventually let down.

Of course, the don’t-get-your-hopes-up philosophy has proven to be especially important in the two most memorable losses of the season for Colorado, a loss to the Trojans of Southern California and a loss in Salt Lake City to the Utah Utes. In both games, the Buffaloes blew a lead of at least 14 points with no more than nine minutes left on the clock.

While I remain that you should never get your hopes up on the road, I also agree with the many who have said to me, “You should be able to get your hopes up when you’re up 14 with nine minutes left.” You shouldn’t do it, but you should be able to. I’ll admit, even I got to thinking “how did they lose that” after Saturday night’s meltdown. Even worse, the meltdowns have not been isolated to road games, in fact, they’ve struck in every type of game, including on a neutral court.

So what’s up with “Tadball” failing the Buffaloes late in games?

Well, to be fair, not all of the late game decelerations have ended in disaster for Colorado. The Buffaloes have seen eight leads of eight points or more disappear (or close to it) this season with less than ten minutes on the clock — in those games, the Buffaloes are 4-4. But wait, isn’t the fact that eight sizable leads have dissipated to close quarters reason enough for concern? Indeed.

Let’s have a look:

12/22/15: Colorado sees a 10-point lead with 2:32 left in the game shrink all the way down to one before barely escaping Penn State 71-70 in Vegas.

12/23/15: One night later, the Buffaloes take an eight-point lead over SMU with 8:29 left but only score 12 more points in the rest of the game, losing 70-66.

1/4/16: Just two games later, Colorado holds a ten point lead over Stanford with nine minutes left. The Buffs score just four points in the remaining minutes but find a way to hold on, 56-55 in Palo Alto.

1/9/16: In their next game, the Buffaloes take an eight-point lead over Utah in Boulder with just under 10 minutes remaining. The Buffaloes score just eight points down the stretch and see Lorenzo Bonam’s buzzer beater put an end to an otherwise perfect home record with a buzzer-beating layup.

2/13/16: CU takes a nine-point lead over Washington with just over four minutes remaining, only to see that lead shrink all the way down to one, saved only by the strength of the back iron on a Andrew Andrews buzzer-beater attempt.

2/18/16: The Buffs take a 15-point lead over USC with nine minutes left, only to allow the Trojans to go on a 34-12 run to close the game, the bid for a signature road win quelled as USC wins 79-72.

2/24/16: A Josh Scott layup with 3:31 remaining gives Colorado a 10-point lead over Arizona, as the Buffaloes search for their biggest win of the season. Colorado scores a grand total of zero points after Scott’s bucket but once again hangs on as another buzzer beater falls short.

3/5/16: The latest. A Tory Miller layup caps off a 16-0 run to give the Buffs a 14-point lead over Utah with just over eight minutes to go. Colorado promptly allows a 19-0 run to the Utes and is eventually out-scored 26-10 in the final eight. Another signature road win wiped from the resume.

It looks even worse when you put it all down on paper, doesn’t it? Colorado has blown or come very close to blowing a large lead in 25-percent of their games. Why?

Well, first of all, the obvious — Tad Boyle teams have always taken the air out of the ball late in games. Remember in 2012, Boyle’s most storied season, when Colorado led Arizona 48-36 late in the championship game of the Pac-12 Tournament? Arizona finished the game on a 15-5 run, giving the Buffs a very narrow escape. Or maybe you remember a few nights later, Colorado’s lone NCAA Tournament win under Boyle, the Buffs led 53-33 in the second half before surrendering a 22-4 run. Again, they’d escape, going on to win 68-64.

Tadball has always been defense, it’s always been rebounding and, love it or hate it, it’s always been taking the air out of the ball with a late lead. The problem is, this year Tadball has, seemingly, been less successful. There isn’t a coach in the country that’s okay with blowing four late leads.

If you’re looking to place blame anywhere but the team, how about this — the new shot-clock. It’s not all that crazy to believe the NCAA taking five seconds off of the clock has hurt Tad Boyle’s late game strategy. In the process of upping the pace of the game, raising the score of game and creating a more exciting product on the court, the new rule takes five seconds off of every possession. That adds up to about a minute less that Colorado can take off of the clock in that 10-minute period at the end of the game. Certainly doesn’t help.

That can’t be the only reason, though. In my opinion, the problem is a mix of a few things.

First, inexperienced, inconsistent guard play. The Buffaloes guards have not been consistently strong all year, sophomore Dom Collier has shown flashes as has freshman Thomas Akyazili, but neither have put it together for an extended period of time. Senior Xavier Talton has stretches where he is a calming influence on the floor but then follows it up with stretches where his decision making goes out the window. The common trend in all of their downswings has been pressure defense. Of course, when a team has their backs against the wall, down big late in a game, their defense is going to be taken up a notch. The increase in pressure causes Colorado’s guards to press themselves, creating an increase in turnovers and bad decisions.

The next problem lies within Colorado’s leadership on the floor. I’ve said it once, I’ll say it a million times, college basketball is not conducive to teams lead by big men. It is a guard’s game. Colorado’s unquestioned leader and best player on the floor at any given time is 6-foot-10 Josh Scott, the Buffs have done a better job this year than any other year at feeding him the ball, but when you try to run clock, Scott’s job, and the job of those trying to get him the ball, becomes much harder. Instead of having to deny Scott the ball for 20 seconds, the defense only has to deny him for 10. Instead of having time to methodically dissect his defender and go to work once he does have the ball, Scott is forced to make quick decisions and often forces shots he normally wouldn’t take.

When Tad Boyle’s late game tactics were at their best, the ball was put into the hands of guys like Cory Higgins, Alec Burks, Spencer Dinwiddie, even Carlon Brown. There were three easy steps—take the ball up top, run the clock and go. All of those guys were capable of getting most anything they wanted in a short amount of time. This year’s Buffaloes don’t have a guy like that and adding in a fourth step of getting the ball to Scott has proven to be detrimental to the system.

Boyle’s belief in defense has always led him to trust his guys to get the stops necessary to win the game regardless of what happens on the offensive end. Unfortunately for the coach, his defense this season has often shown to be prone to giving up points in bunches.

For the Buffs, four times this season the offensive freeze up has been matched with the defensive let down, creating a momentum shift that no amount of timeouts can turn around. For the Black & Gold it was the difference between the winningest regular-season in program history, an undefeated home slate, and likely the highest NCAA tournament seed in the program’s history (since the expansion to 64 teams.)

That, of course, will always be hard to swallow for Colorado fans but as we head into the postseason all of that is wiped clean anyway. Maybe Buffs far and wide can find solace in the fact that Colorado has shown an ability to play at that level, maybe they can find warmth in the fact that Colorado has zero road games remaining this season. Maybe, just maybe, the latest meltdown will be enough for Tad Boyle to make some slight tweaks to his late-game strategy.

Will the late leaks prove to be the downfall of the 2016 Buffaloes or merely a bump in the road? Only time will tell.

Colorado opens up their postseason on Wednesday afternoon in Las Vegas against the Cougars of Washington State (3:30 MST, Pac-12 Networks.)