Back to our winning ways, analyzing the Week 9 NFL picks

 

YPP is back baby! after two off weeks, things got back on track in the NFL’s Week 9 as the metric went 7-3-1 with differentials over 1 point. More importantly, differentials of 4 points or more were 4-1-1 on the week, an important sign. All that led us to a winning week going 2-1-1 to get back to .500 with a 17-17-2 record on the year.

Our latest EW spreads didn’t fair nearly as well going 3-5 with differentials over 1. While the old EW numbers based off of the Vegas over/unders went 4-6 in Week 9, not great by any means.

We offered some interesting picks last week, so without further ado here’s how our picks broke down, plus our Week 10 EW suggested spreads.

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The Falcons get us back on track

The Atlanta Falcons are a true YPP darling; they’ve sat atop the rankings for over a month now and were thus big favorites against a lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers. -3.5 for the Dirty Birds just wasn’t enough as YPP had them at -7.5.

Truth be told, in the first half this pick didn’t look like a sure thing but as the game wore on and the Falcons came out swinging things worked out nicely. Julio Jones was back and so was Matt Ryan, throwing for four touchdowns. Atlanta ended up winning easily 43-28. A matchup that proved crucial was Bucs rookie cornerback, Vernon Hargraves III, covering the much bigger Jones.

This whooping will undoubtedly vault the Falcons even higher above the pack in the YPP differentials, they’re suggested spreads moving forward are bound to be interesting.

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No matter how hard the Fins try they get the cover

This one was extremely risky. The Miami Dolphins have played extremely well and won for us every time we’ve picked em but this one they made us sweat out. The New York Jets were only 3.5 point underdogs against a Fins team that’s been highly ranked per YPP.

Despite Ryan Fitzpatrick getting banged up and taken out at points, Miami struggled to break away. In the fourth quarter as the Jets took the lead, 23-20, and 5:42 remaining things didn’t look promising. But Kenyan Drake, the speedster from Alabama, took a Kickoff 95-yards to get the lead to 4 and our bet won.

Jay Ajayi had another game over the century mark and the Dolphins have now gone 3-0 for us when we pick them.

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A push and a loss turn the week into modest pickings

Taking the Rams as 3 point underdogs against the Carolina Panthers after Carolina got things back in line seemed risky, but the matchup was far too interesting. Also, it was hard to trust this Panthers team in a season like this.

The Rams’ ability to match Carolina’s physicality proved key here. However, in a low scoring game, once the Panthers took a 13-3 lead with 3:18 left in the game, this pick seemed doomed. The Rams offense doesn’t inspire much confidence but managed to get the touchdown to make this a push with less than a minute remaining. A push isn’t a win but it’s no loss, we’ll take it.

Our other unsuccessful pick was the Denver Broncos as 1 point underdog to the Oakland Raiders. We’ve covered this game extensively so I’ll avoid going into what happened on the field. However, numerically speaking this 3 point differential was iffy. What appealed was that instead of the Raiders being favored YPP had Denver at -2, a consensus line with EW. Oakland was able to exploit the Broncos defense in a way that we haven’t seen in quite a while and the Raiders crowd was raucous, deserving more than the 3 point home advantage we award when setting up the spread.

Instead of the Broncos, YPP had three other games it liked by a differential of 4 points or more; the Cleveland Browns, New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Browns fell well short of covering the 7.5 points to the Dallas Cowboys. Cleveland has been an outlier for the most part in their YPP spreads, something we’ve tried to be more aware of as time goes on.

The Giants and Jaguars both covered. New York took care of the Philadelphia Eagles winning by 5 (NYG was -2.5 going in) in part by generating pressure and forcing turnovers on rookie Carson Wentz who’s come back to earth in the last few weeks.

While the Jaguars partially benefitted from Nick Foles and not Alex Smith playing in this one (part of why we stayed away from the line). Foles did not play badly by any means, but the Jags ‘D’ that’s been surprisingly good all year managed to keep the score down in this contest. Even with the cover, the Jags offensive issues continued and their quarterback play was particularly poor. They remain a hard team to take as that offense sets them back significantly.

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Early numbers preview

Below are our EW numbers that are based on the preseason over/under numbers. We wouldn’t place many bets off these numbers but they’re still an accurate predictor of the Vegas spreads.

Stay tuned throughout the week for all the updated suggested spreads for the NFL’s Week 10.

Teams	Current Spread	Expected Wins 2016 prices	Advantage	Home Field	Suggested Spread	Difference
CLE		4.5
@BAL	-10	8.5	8	3	-11	1
DEN		9	4		-1	2.5
@NO	-1.5	7		3
GB	-2.5	10.5	9		-6	3.5
@TEN		6		3
MIN		9.5	4		-1	3.5
@WSH	-2.5	7.5		3
CHI	-1.5	7.5	0
@TB		7.5	0	3	-3	4.5
KC		9.5
@CAR	-3	10.5	2	3	-5	2
ATL	Even	7.5	0
@PHI	Even	7.5	0	3	-3	3
LAR		7.5	0
@NYJ	-1.5	7.5	0	3	-3	1.5
HOU	-1.5	8.5	2
@JAX		7.5		3	-1	2.5
MIA		7.5	1			1.5
@SD	-3.5	7		3	-2
DAL		8.5
@PIT	-2.5	10.5	4	3	-7	4.5
SF		5.5				1.5
@AZ	-13.5	10	9	3	-12
SEA		10.5	0			4.5
@NE	-7.5	10.5	0	3	-3
CIN		9.5	2			1
@NYG	-2	8.5		3	-1