Avs-Blues Game 69 Studs & Duds

Studs

Mikko Rantanen

Tonight was one of THOSE Mikko Rantanen games where he and the Avalanche top line didn’t play very well from the standpoint of, you know, playing the majority of the game.

In classic Mikko fashion, however, he made the chances he got count and scored the seventh hat trick of his career. Rantanen is a guy who drives me crazy because he can be so lazy and erratic in his play (see: the turnover that led to the third St. Louis goal) but sometimes it just does not matter.

For my money, he is one of the most talented goal scorers in the NHL and last year’s 55-goal explosion was an entrance into the truly elite territory. This year has been more of a (small) step back as that lethal shot has beaten goalies less often and he has relied more on deflections and rebounds and greasier goals to get his.

Not tonight.

No, his hat trick tonight did have one deflection off a nice feed from Jonathan Drouin but that was sandwiched in between him beating Jordan Binnington cleanly. He can wire a puck like few others in the world. The rest of his game wasn’t great but tonight was one of those nights where it didn’t matter.

When you score three goals and your team wins, the rest doesn’t matter much.

Casey Mittelstadt

This seems like a broken record since being acquired, but Mittelstadt was once again really good. He scored on a nifty little pass from Sam Girard and the release was excellent and the placement of the shot was perfect (it beat the goalie, so obviously).

Beyond the goal, the rest of Mittelstadt’s game is something I am encouraged by. His primary matchup tonight was against this bizarro line of Jake Neighbours-Pavel Buchnevich-Brandon Saad. Mittelstadt beat that line up enough that St. Louis eventually broke the trio apart and stopped going to it (no shock they had success elsewhere because those are three wings by trade, even if Buchnevich has taken some center duties in his career).

My only complaint about Mittelstadt isn’t about his game so much as it is Jared Bednar, who only played his second-line center for 13:23 tonight. Why? Colorado’s top line scored their goals, no doubt, but were getting crushed in possession numbers throughout and it created an excellent opportunity to see how that Mittelstadt line handled protecting a one-goal lead in the third period.

It makes me a little uncomfortable that Bednar might have developed some really bad habits this season in relying on his top guys so much that he doesn’t want to trust anyone else in the closing moments of games. It worked and all because they won so how strongly can I really criticize this? Still, I want to see Mittelstadt’s TOI start to increase given how well he is playing.

Sam Girard

When Girard has good games, they are obvious to spot. His legs are going all game and he’s escaping pressure with his trademark elusiveness and moving pucks into dangerous areas.

The assist he had on Mittelstadt’s goal is great. He walks down low with the puck and draws the attention of the St. Louis defense, has his head up the whole way, and as soon as the crease opens for him to find Mittelstadt, he hits him. A well-earned assist.

On the other side of the ice, I really liked how Girard handled the defensive zone. In nearly 18 minutes of 5v5 time, the Blues only created 0.42 expected goals against Girard. That’s rock solid, especially when you compare them to the numbers of the top guys. His game was so reliable that he actually got more shifts in the third period than either Devon Toews or Cale Makar.

Duds

Colorado’s top pairing

I’ve written in this space this season about the inconsistent play of Devon Toews and Cale Makar and the impact it has had on Colorado’s defense as a whole. The group just isn’t as good when their top pairing is having off nights, of which there have been more this year than in previous seasons.

Tonight is one of the worst performances I’ve seen from these two. A lazy Toews turnover eventually led to the first St. Louis goal (Ross Colton’s insistence on standing in one spot and not marking anybody didn’t help) and a Makar turnover turned into an Avalanche penalty kill to start the second period.

Things didn’t improve from there and the numbers are staggering. As a pairing with 15:28 of 5v5 time together, they allowed the Blues to outshoot them 14-6, which is the best number here. They gave up two goals, likely aided by the staggering 18-2 scoring chance advantage St. Louis had against them. The high-danger chances being only 8-2 in favor of the Blues feels like a godsend compared to those other numbers.

Those are the types of numbers the top pairing usually puts up against other teams, not get dropped on them. On one hand, the Avs still won despite that (good!) but on the other, those numbers exist (bad!).

For what it’s worth, the Avalanche top line also got annihilated in shot metrics but when three of their own shots go into the other net, well, you let that go.

The third line

The discerning eye had already picked up on the fact that Logan O’Connor was the glue guy who elevated every line he played on this season. When LOC went down for the season, it seemed the Avs had acquired enough depth in Brandon Duhaime and Yakov Trenin to sustain that loss.

For the moment, it has not gone that way.

Ross Colton has looked awful since the trade deadline and his struggles in the defensive zone have become more pronounced with no LOC around to help cover for him. There have been a lot of moving parts alongside him, so we can chalk it up to finding chemistry and all but this was another game where that group just did not produce much.

In only 7:37 of ice time together, Parise-Colton-Duhaime surrendered two goals and shots on goal were 7-3 in favor of the Blues. That line is supposed to be a safety valve and it did not do its job. Something to keep an eye on.

Unsung Hero

Justus Annunen

I wanted to consider Jonathan Drouin for this spot because I thought he also had a really underrated game and his find of Rantanen on the power play was a sneaky pass after he sold shot the entire way. That’s the kind of stuff I thought we were going to see more of on the power play this year but his usage has been weird so we haven’t seen a lot of that creativity.

Anyway, this is about Annunen, who was put in some very tough spots tonight but his game once again rose to the occasion. He finished with “only” a .909 save percentage but watched his team erase a 3-2 deficit and turn it into a 4-3 win in part because he did not budge late in the game.

The Avalanche had stopped playing meaningful offense after taking the lead early in the third period and leaned on Annunen. The rookie handled the moment well and got his team across the finish line. It wasn’t a spectacular performance, but that he even got this start with Columbus on the schedule next was a test of faith by Bednar and I think Annunen responded well. His encouraging play continues.