Welcome to the newest weekly installment that I’ll be bringing you only right here on theDNVR.com ahead of the weekend.
I’ve gotten to know someone over the last several years who I would consider to be somewhat of a gambling expert, and we spend a lot of time discussing the NHL. No, not just because I’m desperately trying to win some money back, although we’ve all been there right… right? But also because it helps me see the game from a different vantage point that I hadn’t looked at it in the past, in our pre-legalized sports-betting lives.
It occurred to me that I should take some of those great conversations and observations and write them down and pass them on to you folks.
So look for this piece to be dropping every Friday to give you some of my best bets for that upcoming weekend, and even some futures and props along the way.
Anaheim +100 vs Vegas
The odds don’t seem to have caught up to the reality of the Vegas Knights. Case in point they still have the 4th best odds to win the Stanley Cup even though they are in danger of being a wild card team. I understand those odds reflect what people believe they can be at full strength but that’s not the team playing Anaheim Friday night. Vegas lost to Boston last night and has exactly one win over a team not named Buffalo or San Jose since the start of February.
This is the second night of a back-to-back and I doubt we see Robin Lehner two nights in a row.
Meanwhile Anaheim is coming off an exciting win over Boston on a late Trevor Zegras PP goal Tuesday. They are rested and they need this one more, against a team they are chasing as they sit just outside the 2nd wildcard entering this one. Give me the Ducks as a small underdog at home.
Tampa Bay vs Detroit O 6.5 (+100)
Tampa likes to score. Detroit likes to let teams score, including giving up a dime spot to Toronto last week. Tampa will be on the second night of back-to-back and with Andrei Vasilevskiy getting the start last night in Pittsburgh we should see the backup Brian Elliott and his .902 save percentage. That should be enough to get us to seven total goals. I don’t love going over 6.5 which is the highest total you’ll see in an NHL game but it shouldn’t matter and at +100 it’s worth it.
Side note – The NHL didn’t do the Red Wings any favors with the TB, FLA back-to-back this weekend.
Vancouver vs Toronto o6
Vancouver games has gone over 7 straight games after Thursday’s 4-3 win over the Islanders.
Toronto has gone over 5 of the last 6. They are coming off a listless performance against Buffalo Wednesday which should give Sheldon Keefe ample fuel to light a fire under their asses.
This game has 5-3 written all over it. DraftKings doesn’t have a line up for this one, but my guess is it will be 6 with heavy juice or 6.5 and even like the Tampa game above. Regardless, just lay the heavy juice and take the over.
Colorado vs Calgary First Period o1.5
Avs first period overs were the gift that kept on giving in 2021. Then something weird happened (mostly stellar Avs goaltending) and it didn’t hit for 9 straight heading into the All Star break. Since the break it’s picked back up including 5 of the last 7 games after deciding offense was optional last night in Arizona. The First Period over is 6-3 in Calgary’s last 9 games.
I get the sense that the Avs might be out to prove something in this one facing the Pacific Division leaders in front of what will most likely be a packed house on Pride Night at Ball Arena.
That should lead to a quick pace early which should help us get to 2 goals in the first 20 minutes. Again we don’t have the actual line, my guess is it will be steep (-165+) but it’s just hit so often, and a win is a win.
Why Not Parlay +670
TB ML -295, WPG -105, FLA ML -345, TOR ML -278, COL ML -148
Big favorites plus Winnipeg over Dallas combined to give a solid almost 7-1 payout. The logic goes like this – Winnipeg and Dallas feel like the same teams to me so I’ll take the one at home.
As we mentioned above Tampa and Florida play Detroit back-to-back Friday and Saturday and Colorado and Toronto are coming off atypical sluggish defeats to lower tier teams. It is worth a flyer at +670
Prop to Watch
Alex Newhook Anytime goal scorer
I like Alex Newhook to get a goal Saturday. He has been around +600 lately but we won’t have the official odds until game day (His odds were just under +300 in Arizona after being moved up to the second line). Jared Bednar praised his play against the Islanders during his postgame media availability the other night saying, “I thought he was awesome tonight. Last couple games he’s been skating, moving the puck, real good decisions, his third period was fantastic.”
While I have no actual proof of this, it feels like when he talks up a player for doing things that don’t show up on the stat sheet, they tend to go do something that does show up on the stat sheet soon after. I’d bet it at +300 or better.
