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Every NHL draft season, one player finds himself as the X-factor of the first round. Teams picking in the top 10 are all weighing the pros and cons of drafting a player they see with outsized talent but enough risk to give them pause. In 2017, teams were grappling over the boom-or-bust potential of Cale Makar. In 2015, it was Pavel Zacha. Who is the kid who is going to force a team to walk the fine line between genius and incompetence in 2019?

Meet Trevor Zegras.

Of the Americans vying to be selected in the top 15 of this year’s draft, he is the least physically memorable. Jack Hughes and Cole Caufield are small enough to fit inside your pocket. Matt Boldy stands the most physically imposing at a cut 6’2″ and Alex Turcotte is a fire hydrant of a human at 5’11” and already 185 pounds. Then there’s Zegras, a 6’0″, 175-pound forward who played a lot of wing but moonlights enough as a center to allow teams to dream on him playing the pivot in the NHL.

The question over his position is just the beginning of trying to unravel the mystery box that is Trevor Zegras.

When you fire up video to watch Zegras, you see a smooth-skating forward with a little bite to his game defensively. The edge he plays with especially stands out in a draft class loaded with players at the top who aren’t known for their willingness to engage in the rougher stuff. That’s great; teams always are looking to add attitude and skill to make them harder to play against.

What also shows on the video is a player who can flip the switch between whirling dervish and sniper. He shows exceptional vision and possesses rare playmaking ability and the highlight reels are full of him firing ridiculous passes through traffic to create easy goals for teammates.

Of course, those same ridiculous passes that don’t end up in goals still take place but they don’t make for great viewing on YouTube montages with Breaking Benjamin blaring in the background. Instead, those passes tend to create odd-man rushes for the other team and that’s the double-edged sword of Zegras.

One scout quoted in the “NHL Draft Black Book” summed up the dichotomy of the way Zegras plays offensively:

“F***ing kid had a 2 on 1 and all he had to do was make the simple pass, but no, he had to pull some fluff bullsh** fancy dangle garbage and the Russian D (defenseman) took it away from him.”

His offensive potential is very high-end, with some believing he could be a 100-point player in the NHL someday, but his playstyle comes with a fair amount of risk. How that playstyle gets coached up at the next level will play a major role in just how much of his potential is tapped into.

With Zegras heading to Boston University next season, he’ll have an opportunity to play in the same meat and potatoes offense that Shane Bowers lived through this past season. It was an offense designed around going hard to the net and…that’s about it. Zegras and his tendency to make the flashy play when a simple one is needed will present quite the contrast for head coach Albie O’Connell.

Before Zegras gets to Boston and pulls on a Terriers sweater, however, his NHL destination must first be decided. This is where Zegras has a chance to shape what appears to be an increasingly unpredictable top of the draft. Everyone knows who is going first and second, though the order is still up for some debate, beginning with Chicago at the third pick, things immediately get interesting.

The long-standing connection for the Blackhawks has been their hometown kid and Zegras linemate at the USNTDP, Alex Turcotte. As the draft nears, however, Zegras himself has pushed into that conversation. Zegras at three would likely result in Turcotte going fourth to the Avalanche and Bowen Byram, the draft’s top defenseman, fifth to Los Angeles.

If Turcotte does land in Chicago, the Avalanche have one whale of a decision on their hands. Zegras has put his name in the conversation with forwards such as Kirby Dach and Matt Boldy. If he’s taken, he immediately becomes Colorado’s top prospect. If he gets by the Avs, Byram is still the likely play for the Kings but that leaves Zegras ripe for the taking by Detroit, who sits at six and covets the American forward.

That all of the teams owning selections three through six all have eyes for the same American forward sets him up to be the linchpin of the first round. Every decision has a consequence and whenever someone pulls the trigger on drafting Zegras, they could be pulling the pin on the grenade that blows up their career or cementing their status as a draft guru. There doesn’t appear to be any middle ground on projecting Zegras.

Projecting teenagers to the NHL is always difficult. Coming into the draft on a stacked team and with uncertainty over whether he’s a center or a wing was going to present problems to begin with. His high-wire act will need to be reigned in at higher levels. If Zegras finds the sweet spot, whoever drafts him could be getting a bonafide superstar.

It’s only their organization’s future on the line here. Who will be the team to take the chance on Trevor Zegras? Whoever it ends up being will be closing their eyes and swinging as hard as they can for the fences.