Welcome to the Roy Report! Every Wednesday, Avalanche head coach Patrick Roy peels back the curtain on the team during an in-depth radio interview on FM 104.3 The Fan. Even if you missed it, BSN Denver has your back, providing both a recap and analysis to keep you up to speed. 

Last Nights Win & Bad Angle Shots 

The first topic of the day focused on last nights’ impressive 4-0 stompdown in Philadelphia.  Roy felt that it was one of the team’s best games on the road in a long time.  He was especially pleased by how the team managed the contest, got pucks on net, and maintained a relentless mindset.  Goaltender Reto Berra made the stops the team needed, but the rest of the Avs helped him substantially by filling passing lanes, moving the puck well, and doing a lot of little things right.  Their sense of urgency came through in their play, and he was very pleased by the overall performance and result.

He also was particularly happy with how the team attacked the net.  Both of Matt Duchene’s goals were rebound put-aways, and Cody McLeod tallied the fourth of the night on a wrap around.  However, Roy spent a lot of time talking about Iginla’s goal.  At the beginning of the year, Iggy probably would have passed on the shot because it was such a bad angle.  However, the fact he did get it on net and it did trickle through shows the entire team that they don’t necessarily need to be in the slot or in the perfect position to take a shot.  Sometimes even bad chances will go in.  He believes this willingness to shoot and overall sharpness around the net is the biggest reason why the team scored four goals last night.

[You’ll notice that his shot selection rhetoric from two years ago has gone the way of man-to-man D.  As frustrating as it might be, Roy is still a young coach who is learning what works at the NHL level and what doesn’t.  Shot selection worked in 2013-14, luck-fueled or not, but it has become a detriment since.  

Now, he’s at least saying the right things now when it comes to getting this club to shoot more, but talk is cheap.  Real life examples – like Iginla’s goal last night – are going to have a much stronger effect on the decisions individual players are going to make on the ice.  Shooting and netfront tip-ins are going to be a huge part of getting this team turned back into the right direction, but getting the team (and in some ways, the coach) to buy in isn’t going to happen overnight.]

Duchene’s Goals

Matt Duchene’s second goal was play of the week.  After talk earlier in the year that Duchene needed to find his game, he’s tallied five goals in the last four games.

You’ve been open in saying Dutchy needs to get it going. These last handful of games, he seems to have found his game.  What has been the difference?

He’s around the net. Plain and simple: he’s around the net.

Roy also gave some props to MacKinnon’s great play on Duchene’s first goal and to Holden ability to hold the puck in at the blueline and get a shot off which lead to his second.  Overall, he just reiterated that when a player is around the net, it pays off.

[This logic can be applied to most players.  Part of the reason guys like McLeod, Skille, and Mitchell lead the Avs in high danger scoring chances to start the year is their propensity for chillin’ around the net.  Good things happen when you’re by the place where goals go in.  

When high talent players like Duchene remember this little fact, they start scoring goals again.  Granted, putting Dutchy on a line where he has players that can actually pass to him certainly helps, but he’s upped his game as well in these past few weeks, and it’s helped break him out of his cold snap.]

Reto Berra

There’s no question that netminder Reto Berra is playing well, so Roy was very emphatic that he deserves more starts right now.  Varlamov has had a rough start to the year, and while he was phenomenal two seasons ago and a huge part of the 112 point season and coach of the year award,  Berra’s hard work is finally paying off and he’s been steady night after night.  Varlamov is working hard to get his confidence back, a fact that Roy really appreciates, but the two goalie setup is something good teams have. The coach feels lucky to have both.

Berra’s had a bit of a rough career as well, which makes this play even more impressive.  He was drafted in 2006 and only has a few seasons of NHL play under his belt, so there’s no doubt that he’s paid his dues.  Roy did admit that he really struggled after he was brought in from Calgary, but he’s worked really diligently with goaltending coach Francois Allaire.  Now, he moves well, is square to the puck, and makes goaltending look simple, which are all the hallmarks of the best in the league.  There was a goaltending battle in camp, but Berra’s play was enough to boot Calvin Pickard to the minors.  His play has been really strong since.

[The Avs would be even more hosed than they already are if last year’s Berra had showed up.  He has been very steady in net beyond even last night’s shutout.  Nearly two years after the trade was made, we’re beginning to see why Allaire was high on this guy and why Sakic & Co. pulled the trigger on the deal.  It stinks that it took so long for it to not look like a moronic move, but at least it’s paying off eventually. 

The other side to this is Calvin Pickard, who is down in the minors again.  Is he ready to be a full-time NHL backup?  If he keeps playing the way he has been down in San Antonio, the answer is probably.  Berra’s great play might open a door for a trade in a “sell ’em while they’re hot” move. It then becomes a balancing act of whether or not Varlamov is ready to resume his full-on starter role without hosing over a team that desperately needs wins.  I would be surprised if Sakic wasn’t making phone calls right now.]

Nick Holden

The other player that’s stood out in a good way to the 104.3 guys was Nick Holden.  He had a couple assists last night, which brings him to a total of eight on the season.

While Roy still considers Erik Johnson and Francois Beauchemin the first pair due to their matchups against most top lines, he does like how well Tyson Barrie and Nick Holden have been clicking of late.  They’re both capable of joining the rush and making plays, and last night, both of them made a lot of sharp decisions, managed the puck well in the neutral zone, supported the rush, and were solid defensively.

[Nick Holden has been playing well this year, but it’s important to keep it in context.  If you’re expecting him to consistently play 20+ minutes a night against top competition, you’re not going to have a good time.  Playing him with Tyson Barrie primarily in the offensive zone, and eh, you might be okay.  

Holden’s at least a better option there than Guenin, but it still means that the Avs have a less than outstanding top four.  Hopefully that will begin to turn around in the next few years with the maturation of Gormley, Zadorov, and Bigras.  Until then, even with Holden’s solid play, the Avs are very limited defensively.]

Getting on a Roll

Roy was then asked whether or not he felt the current seven game road trip was the make or break point of the season.  He didn’t quite want to go that far, but he agreed that it was extremely important.  The team didn’t have the start they wanted so they need to start turning it around, and for Roy, that point is right now.

He acknowledged that the club is in the bottom of the league, and even though they keep saying they’re close to turning it around, they’re still losing a ton of one goal games.  The coach blames a lack of relentless play on the ice.  Confidence is a huge part of success in this game, so working hard to create big plays and then building off of them can turn around the narrative surrounding the team.  He feels that the structure the club is running is much better than two years ago, so now it’s just a matter of going out there and playing with that edge.

[When Roy says play with an edge, I don’t get the sense he’s talking about starting fights.  He just wants his team to win puck battles, put the biscuit on net, drive hard to the goal and through the neutral zone, and play with general intensity.  It’s something the team did well last night, but it’s not been a constant in their play so far this year.  

One goal games are a problem for the club right now, and while there are a lot of other problems going on, confidence is certainly a factor.  In ’13-14, confidence was the one thing they didn’t lack, and their 28-4-8 record was probably at least somewhat related.  Rekindling that is something the team has control over, unlike shooting percentages or bounces or luck.  If they’re able to reinstitute urgency to their play, many of the other problems they’re facing will fade into the background.  It’s a good start after a terrible beginning.]

Importance of the Goalie

Talk returned to the early goal against.  Roy was asked what goes through a goalie’s head when they let in a weak fluky goal like Iginla’s tally last night.  He replied that it’s not just the goalie that’s thrown by a goal like that – it’s the bench as well.  It catches them off guard and puts more pressure on everyone, especially the netminder, to hold off the storm until they can even the score.

It’s why goaltending is one of the most important roles in the business of hockey.  Even if a team is getting terribly outshot, the goalie can still individually win them the game and turn the analytics sideways.  The recent Avs game against the Rangers is a good example – the team played pretty well, but Henrik Lundqvist was phenomenal.  Carey Price in Montreal is another example.

[And herein lies Roy’s issues with most advanced stats.  He doesn’t buy in to the concept that all goalies are going to return to a league-wide average, and it’s certainly not going to dictate what they do game-to-game.  There is a psychological and humanistic side to the position that stats do brush over in their current form, and as a former goalie, he has a hard time reconciling that.  

When it comes to discussing Roy and stats, I think it’s important to understand that he’s not strictly old school.  He does use his own in-house measure, and he is preaching more shots on net now.  I just think he isn’t aware of some of the nuances the stats are seeking to measure – close score, o-zone starts, quality of competition – but he’s also uncomfortable with some of the other limitations even diehard stats guys would admit still exist with the numbers.  

There is no perfect stat, and there is still an ongoing process to hone in on many of the details that have always made hockey so difficult to quantify.  Discounting the stats completely isn’t fair – and I do think Roy has warmed to them significantly – but he’s not content with them in their current form.]

Restaurants and Homecomings

The team won’t be going to Ray Bourque’s restaurant tonight because #77 is in Portland to watch his son play hockey.  They’ll go tomorrow instead.

Speaking of family and coming home, Roy was also asked about what it’s like to return to Montreal.  Roy was pretty matter of fact that it doesn’t do too much to him emotionally anymore.  He’s still happy to go back because of the career he had there, and he does love seeing his kids, but for him, he’s more focused on winning a hockey game.  He’s very happy in Denver and called it his home, and he enjoys every minute of what he’s doing and is excited about the team even if they didn’t have the start he wanted.

[Any time Roy is asked about his career, he very politely hits the nopenopenope button and distances himself from it.  To me at least, it seems Patrick Roy is no longer a goaltender; he’s a coach who is very committed to his current city and current team.  He’ll still give some goaltending insights, but as he said last week, that’s all he does even with his current the netminders.  He’s certainly not someone dwelling on his past or trying to coattail onto it for his future.  

Even if he may not always know what exactly he’s doing as a coach, it’s hard to deny that he’s working hard at learning and trying to do what’s right for his players and his adoptive city.  Part of this might be spin – he does know his radio audience is Avs fans – but it does come across as largely sincere.]

Nikita Zadorov

When the team decided to make the trade for defenseman Nikita Zadorov, they knew it was going to be a long term move.  Roy really appreciates the fact that Sakic was very on board with that mentality and isn’t pressuring him to give the kid playing time just to make the deal look good.

He also believes that Buffalo made a mistake when they decided to play Zadorov in the NHL so young.  He needed more time in the AHL to learn how to manage the game, control the game, and play the game the right way.  The Avs need to win games right now and can’t afford to give him that learning opportunity, so they decided to send him down and develop him properly, just like they did with Tyson Barrie.

Barrie was pissed about being sent down, and it was implied that Zadorov is too, but it’s what the team believes is what’s best for him.  The same thing goes for Mikko Rantanen. Roy even quoted his own experiences in the minors and how he learned the game and the professional lifestyle.  It’s how Detroit and Tampa Bay developed their players, and Roy is a big believer in that style of development.

[They did it because the Avs need to win games now?  Right.  That’s a very nice spin for “the Avs probably aren’t making the playoffs, so let’s start looking for how we can best improve our future”.  

It’s hard to argue with the decision to send him down, and it is probably going to be what’s best for him in the long term.  If nothing else, winning in San Antonio is probably going to be a lot more fun and productive than suffering through the Avs growing pains here in Denver.  Give him minutes, get his confidence up, and start looking ahead to what’s best for him 1-5 years down the line.  This season is already shot, so the future takes priority.]

The Nine Line

The Avs are currently running a top line of #92 Gabe Landeskog – #29 Nathan MacKinnon – #9 Matt Duchene, earning them the nickname of the Nine Line.  Roy loves what they’ve been doing and can use them a lot.  They have young legs and a lot of energy, so he feels comfortable playing them for well over 20 minutes a night.  Every time the team had an offensive zone faceoff, he played them last night.  It’s a huge advantage to have as a coach.

[Philly had absolutely no answer for that line last night, but I can guarantee that someone on this road trip will.  The problem with putting all your eggs in one basket like that is that the second line becomes pretty easy to shut down.  If the top line isn’t producing, by and large, the Avs won’t be either.  It’s a risk, but it’s fun as all get-out to watch while it’s working.  I do expect it to be split at some point, but it’s certainly a great card for Roy to play until then.]

https://soundcloud.com/1043thefan/patrick-roy-fan-morning-show-5