This afternoon, Colorado Avalanche Head Coach Patrick Roy lamented his team’s recent lack of firepower during the pre-game media address, specifically citing the large number of 2-1 games that the Avalanche have been involved in as of late.
He didn’t have to tell us; Colorado’s inability to consistently create offense has surely not been lost on either the Avalanche media or online community this season. Many have wondered if it’s time to recall Mikko Rantanen from the San Antonio Rampage, where he’s tallied 36 points in 28 games. Others proposed a trade for Jonathan Drouin, the wayward yet productive Tampa Bay winger who was the Oates to MacKinnon’s Hall when they played for Halifax.
However, the answer to Patrick Roy’s woes may already be on Colorado’s roster.
Roy also announced that he intended to give Mikhail Grigorenko the opportunity to play alongside Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon. Roy said that he liked where Grigorenko’s game is at right now, praising his work ethic and improved ability to protect the puck in particular. Roy says he’s curious to see how Grigorenko will play in more than a couple of games with Duchene and MacKinnon, indicating that he’s willing to give Grigorenko an extended look on the top line.
Is this the right move for Roy, and for the Avalanche? Let’s take a closer look.
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Thankfully, there’s a small amount of historical evidence available to be examined. In the wake of Gabriel Landeskog’s suspension for an illegal hit to the head of Brad Marchand, Grigorenko made a similar move to the top line for 2 full games, and he’s made several brief appearances since then.
In the limited amount of time they’ve played together, the 25-29-9 trio has been one of the Avalanche’s most productive lines. The unit has managed 5 goals in 45 minutes at 5v5 while conceding none, and their 14.03 Rel SCF% outstrips the 92-29-9 line’s 9.83% by a considerable margin. Their Rel CF% tells a similar story; 25-29-9’s 9.10% trails only 14-9-12’s 14.39% amongst lines that have played at least 40 minutes together. Clearly, when Grigorenko is on the ice with Duchene and MacKinnon, the ice is shifted in the Avalanche’s favour relative to what’s going on when the rest of the team is playing.
Grigorenko isn’t just along for the ride either. The 25-29-9 trio is the most effective line that MacKinnon has been a part of, and Grigorenko himself chipped in a goal and two primary assists during the aforementioned two-game stint. Grigorenko’s apparent chemistry with MacKinnon becomes even more important when you look at how MacKinnon’s performed alongside some of his other frequent linemates, such as Alex Tanguay and Jarome Iginla.
The 25-29-9 line has not yet met the 100 minute minimum required to be displayed on this attacker’s lattice, but their results together are impressive nonetheless. Jarome Iginla, vaunted goal-scorer though he is, no longer possess the ability to play at the pace of Duchene and MacKinnon. The same could be said of Alex Tanguay, though his ability to pick out a pass is certainly still an asset. The graph above quite clearly displays the impact of Jarome Iginla on Duchene and MacKinnon; it’s a rapid descent into the foreboding depths of the Corsi Ocean. However, Tanguay and Iginla are MacKinnon’s third and fourth most common linemates this season! Talk about dragging around the proverbial anchor.
Perhaps Grigorenko isn’t the solution, and the Avalanche should continue to explore various trade options, and look into recalling Rantanen from the Rampage. However, Grigorenko has the offensive pedigree, the chemistry with MacKinnon, and he’s certainly put in the work. If the Avalanche are serious about making a push for a wildcard spot, it’s time to give him an extended opportunity in the top 6.
Follow Luke Steer on Twitter: @lukeasteer
0 Comments (2 conversations)
phawksmulder
Good read! Glad to see some support of this move. I’d even venture to say, performance aside, the team really hasn’t given Grigorenko a huge amount of chances to capitalize on his potential after bringing him in so this is especially good to see for that reason. He’s done well in his stints with higher lines and seems to play with a solid calm demeanor (reminds me of Soderberg at times) and could be a good counter to that line. The team seems to have a tendency to get flustered and overpass with Duchene and Mackinnon being no exceptions. Maybe he can be a bit of a steadying force. He really needs to find some chemistry and giving him a shot with those guys might be the perfect solution as they’ve had some trouble finding a stable partner over the year as well.
I understood Roy sending him back to the bottom as it seemed he was unmotivated for a bit and those things are necessary. I won’t fully say he was being squandered or anything either at that point since our bottom-6 this year is a revelation of skill in comparison to years prior. Still, glad to see he’s getting the shot after coming back with a bit more fire. Hopefully he keeps it and capitalizes on some of that potential.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Grigs on the top line. I don’t think Tanguay and Iginla are capable of top-line minutes any more. Your analysis confirms my non-statistical eye test. I would love to trade Iggy and Tanguay to a cup-contending team, even if it’s only for picks and/or reclamation projects.
I know +/- is nothing, but -16 for a man of Iggy’s calibre is quite poor and worse than last year (E). His PPG average has dropped from approx. 0.71 over 82 games to 0.54 this season (59 games). That puts him on course for around 44 points for the year. That’s not good enough for a top line, IMHO.
Tanguay’s production is a similar story in all except +/- which is hovering around E (-2 vs +1). PPG is 0.42 vs last year’s 0.6. The common theme is that Tanguay is 36 and Iginla 38. They aren’t going to improve at this stage.
Grigs’ production on the face of it doesn’t look very impressive with just 17 points in 51 games – certainly not top line production, but there are a variety of reasons why I don’t consider that a major issue – his age and lack of time on the top line being the two main ones.
He appears to be a set up guy – 13 of his 17 points are for assists and his puck control is as stated – extremely good. He also appears composed when he has the puck, which is a talent sadly lacking for a lot of Avs players.
Good article, thanks for your time on it.