July 1, 2019.

A day that forever changed the trajectory of the Avalanche and Maple Leafs alike. Tyson Barrie and Alex Kerfoot were shipped to Toronto in exchange for Nazem Kadri and Calle Rosén. Both Joe Sakic and Kyle Dubas surrendered cornerstone assets in exchange for much-needed role players.

On Saturday night, we saw the results of that trade come to light in poetic fashion.

In an emotional matchup, each player competed against his former team for the first time and the action did not disappoint. Barrie and Kadri each produced two-point nights while the Maple Leafs fended off a late Avalanche push to win 5-3. The game’s result, featuring remarkable performances from key trade pieces, begs the question: which team is the victor of this offseason mega trade?

A little over a quarter of the way through the season, the Avs own the first wild card bid in the West (fourth in the Central), while the Leafs are knocking on the door of a playoff spot in the East (fourth in the Atlantic). While the squads have relatively similar records, their trade acquisitions have resulted in dramatically different outcomes.

Toronto’s additions

Through 25 games this season, Tyson Barrie and Alex Kerfoot haven’t been major factors in Toronto’s gameplan. A previous centerpiece in Colorado’s five-on-five and man advantage attacks, Barrie has found himself excluded from Toronto’s top power-play group.

His 2:03 average power-play time per game ranks seventh among Toronto’s skaters and pales in comparison to his 4:03 average last season in Denver. His production has taken a significant dip as well. By the end of November last year, the Canadian native had already amassed 20 points (3g, 17a). After two months playing under the microscope in Canada’s largest city, he’s only logged ten (2g, 8a).

But perhaps brighter days are to come for the Avs’ all-time highest-scoring defenseman. Just last week, Leafs head coach Mike Babcock was fired in favor of former Toronto Marlies bench boss, Sheldon Keefe. Keefe immediately promoted Barrie to the top power-play unit and paired him with 22-year-old Travis Dermott. In the two games since Keefe’s changes, Barrie has notched his first two goals of the season, including a power-play score against the Avalanche.

Barrie ranks eighth among all NHL defensemen in Corsi for this season, hinting that Barrie has been putting in solid work while wearing a Maple Leafs sweater, but simply hasn’t been rewarded for it. With a more involved role and maybe less pressure under a new coach, Barrie could soon return to his old form.

Similarly, Alex Kerfoot has been underwhelming as Toronto’s new 3C, with eight points (5g, 3a) through his first 22 games. At this time last season, he had already posted 18 points (4g, 14a). His usage hasn’t changed much, yet his production is down. Maybe it’s adjusting to a new system or a lack of chemistry with new linemates, but Kerfoot hasn’t quite found his footing in Toronto.

The Harvard graduate failed to tally any points in over twelve minutes of ice time on Saturday night but still managed to make his mark on the contest. Kerfoot’s cross-check in Colorado’s defensive zone sent Erik Johnson flying head-first into the end boards. The hit will result in a hearing with the Department of Player Safety on Monday.

Meanwhile in Denver…

Nazem Kadri has referred to his move to the Avalanche as a “blessing in disguise,” and Colorado’s front office surely feels the same. The “Nasty Naz” has filled a clear role for the Avs that they lacked going into the offseason: a consistent second-line center. His 17 points in 23 games put him on pace for 60 points on the year and his best season since 2016-17 (61 points).

Despite injuries to five Avalanche forwards, the team is still managing to win games. Kadri’s consistency and veteran leadership play a major part in those wins. The Ontario native fit right into his role on a Colorado power-play featuring three all-stars. Following the departures of Gabe Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen to injury, the ten-year veteran has handled an even more focal role seamlessly.

Calle Rosén did not make the initial Avalanche squad out of camp but has put together a productive campaign with the Colorado Eagles. His eight points and 28 shots earned him a call-up on Sunday in the wake of Erik Johnson’s potential injury. We may be seeing more of the former Toronto Marlie in the coming weeks.

The final exchange of the Avs/Leafs summer blockbuster came in the form of draft picks. Dubas sent the Avalanche a third-round pick to make up for a third they gave up for Andre Burakovsky, while Sakic sent the Leafs a sixth to add to their plethora of late-round stock.

While every move has its doubters, most scored this trade as a draw before the start of the season. Both Sakic and Dubas risked key organizational pieces to garner players who they believed could put them in cup contention, and both teams arguably have the potential to go all the way.

The jury is still out on which manager came out ahead in this deal, but early gains certainly favor the Avalanche. Like any deal, the returns for each party won’t be realized for some time. With sweeping changes making their way through the Maple Leafs organization and plenty of question marks for both teams entering the remaining 50-plus regular-season games, either team could still emerge victorious.