Well then!

Thanks to a couple of last-minute surprises, the NCAA Men’s Hockey Tournament Selection Show actually had some drama attached to it. In previous years, the use of the Pairwise system meant that only tweaks were really required but the field was pretty much set beforehand.

With the lack of consistent schedules around the country, the Pairwise system was rendered essentially meaningless this season, giving us a little drama on Selection Sunday.

The drama ended up benefitting Avalanche fans (though certainly not Denver Pioneers fans…) because the last two teams in the tournament were Notre Dame and Omaha, each the home of at least one Avalanche prospect.

In total, the Avs have eight prospects across four teams representing the organization in the 16-team field. Even better, the Avs prospects are going head-to-head so you can get your fill of them all at once. Let’s look at the bracket first just for fun before getting into the stuff you’re really here for.

Boston College vs. Notre Dame – Saturday, 11 a.m.

This is the behemoth of the two matchups. Taking place two hours before the second game of Colorado’s series against Vegas, this is must-see-TV for fans of Avalanche prospects as a ridiculous six players should play in this game. Let’s start with the BC boys first.

Alex Newhook

Newhook is the star of Colorado’s prospect pipeline with the graduation of Bowen Byram (it hasn’t officially happened yet but Byram is a full-time NHLer now so no more prospect talk about him).

After starring for Team Canada at the WJCs, Newhook battled some injury issues upon returning to school but he is back to full strength and is one-third of the best line for the Eagles alongside Mike Hardman and Matt Boldy.

The real question about Newhook here is not how he performs in this game but what comes next. Plenty of NHL organizations would have signed Newhook after his fantastic freshman season but the Avs were in a position of luxury where they could afford to wait another year.

Well, that year officially ends whenever the Eagles either lose next or win the NCAA title. Should Notre Dame upset Newhook, he immediately goes on ELC signing watch.

Because of his age, if Newhook signs an ELC for this season, it will automatically burn the first year of that contract. It’s a practice that has become very common around the league. As organizations entice top players to leave school early, they often agree to burn that first year of the ELC to get that player closer to the second contract where the “real money” can begin to come in. Newhook would then be eligible to play for the Avs immediately should the team want to give that a try.

If Newhook signs his ELC to begin next year, the Avs will get all three years of his ELC and would likely then sign Newhook to an ATO and send him to the Eagles for the rest of the season.

This will be the biggest ELC story to follow among Avs prospects.

Drew Helleson

Helleson has experienced a legitimate breakout this year. Drafted from the powerhouse USNTDP in its most loaded class ever, Helleson’s defense-first mentality elicited memories of the Josh Anderson selection, which has not gone well at all as he toils in the minors with no real chance at making the leap to the NHL.

After a decent freshman campaign that saw him post six points (1G, 5A) in 28 games, Helleson’s offense took a significant leap forward. He recorded 4 points (2G, 2A) in seven games at the WJCs for the gold-medal-winning Americans and that offense translated and he bumped his production up to 15 points (4G, 11A) in just 21 games this season.

The offense is important because Helleson’s defense was already very good. With his great size and physical mindset, that part of game was never in question. His defense took another step forward this year as he further embraced his role as a defensive stopper but his instincts on offense were a totally different animal.

Helleson’s leap should at least make it a conversation for the Avs to sign him this year. As the cupboard in the pro ranks empties thanks to graduations from Makar, Byram, and probably Conor Timmins (he should be done with the AHL no matter what moving forward), the Avs have no real prospects left on defense in Loveland.

With Justin Barron age-eligible to jump straight to the AHL next year, signing Helleson could give the Avs a chance to change the complexion of the Eagles defense next year with both Barron and Helleson manning the right side.

The likelier outcome is Helleson returns to BC for his junior year, takes on a leadership role in a program that is likely losing serious firepower this year (see: Newhook, Boldy, Spencer Knight and potentially even more) and let his game fully round out next season before signing him.

That’s the plan that makes the most sense, but it’s a testament to Helleson’s development this year that this is even a conversation.

Colby Ambrosio

The freshman drafted in the fourth round last year thrived early on, especially as the WJC kids cleared out room for him to play more of a leading role than as a depth guy. As did his fellow Avalanche prospects, Ambrosio recorded 15 points (7G, 8A) this season. He took 23 games to do it, however, as it took Newhook just 11 and Helleson 21 to get to that mark.

Still, for a player who was not expected to play a major role on a stacked Eagles team, Ambrosio’s success puts him on the map to increase his role as the top guns sign their ELCs and vacate the top six.

Ambrosio is zero threat to sign an ELC and will be returning for his sophomore year. The only thing that’s changed is he went from a curiosity as a hyper-feisty player with goal-scoring potential to an impact prospect with his play this year.

It will be fun to watch him play his agitating style against fellow agitator Ryder Rolston.

Nicky Leivermann (Notre Dame)

Onto the Irish, we start with Leivermann. It’s been a long road for Leivermann since he was drafted in the seventh round back in 2017 as he went from high school in Minnesota to the BCHL for a year and then onto Notre Dame.

Drafted as a puck mover whom the Avs were hoping could “learn to play the game”, Leivermann’s junior year has been a legitimate revelation. A naturally gifted skater, Leivermann is your classic undersized defender who moves pucks with efficiency and aggression and fits the mold of what teams are looking for from blueliners more and more these days.

It’s been a slow burn for Leivermann, however, as he was great in the BCHL but had his season cut short due to injury. Then he got to Notre Dame, where he was part of a defense that had nine players on scholarship his freshman year and he struggled to find a place, scoring just two points (1G, 1A) in 23 games.

His sophomore year wasn’t a major leap forward but it was meaningful as he at least found a role as a regular in the lineup, albeit as an offensive player in a notoriously low-scoring and defensive system. His 12 points (5G, 7A) in 32 games played was a nice step forward but not quite the hint that a major breakout was coming.

This year, for a program that struggled badly and was not viewed as a legit NCAA tourney-caliber team by many around the country, Leivermann blossomed with 17 (5G, 12A) points in 29 games.

It wasn’t exactly the stuff of Will Butcher, but the upward trajectory as a late-round selection finding his way in NCAA hockey is similar. What the Avs can learn from the Butcher situation is that they should consider signing Leivermann as soon as Saturday night if the Fighting Irish season does indeed end at the hand of BC.

Giving Leivermann another year to develop would be perfectly defensible, but the reality is that if Leivermann has another strong year, he can just as easily wait until August 15 next summer and choose his destination.

While Colorado has excelled developing offensive-defensemen over the years, if Leivermann is being honest about the organization’s depth chart (extremely young defense in the NHL, then add high-pedigree players in Timmins, Helleson, and Barron), the writing could be on the wall that opportunity would be hard to come by here.

The temptation of job security is the carrot here for the Avs to offer him a deal. He also turns 23 later this year, meaning the ELC would be just a two-year deal instead of the standard three-year pact, so Colorado wouldn’t be making the same kind of investment an ELC normally would be.

For my money, I’m guessing Leivermann goes back for his senior year and whatever happens, happens, but, like Helleson, it’s a testament to his development that this is even a conversation.

Nate Clurman

The Avs do love their leadership guys and Clurman took over the captaincy of the Fighting Irish this year. A sixth-round pick back in 2016, Clurman has taken a truly circuitous route since draft day.

He returned to Culver Academy much to the dismay of the Avalanche, then spent a year getting traded around the USHL as he played for three different teams before finally beginning his career at Notre Dame.

Since getting there, Clurman has fought the same depth chart problem as Leivermann but has played significantly more games since arriving on campus than his fellow Avs prospect.

Clurman’s offense has never really come around as this year was his career-high with nine points (4G, 5A) in 29 games but that was never his appeal to begin with. Clurman has good size and an intriguing all-around game as a jack-of-all-trades type. He is the master of none but a guy that helps the Irish in a lot of ways.

I won’t say there’s a zero percent chance he gets an ELC but I will say the odds seem pretty damn low. One more year of college hockey seems necessary for Clurman.

Ryder Rolston

Another guy from Colorado’s most recent draft class, Rolston has had the slowest start of any of the newest members of the Avalanche system (well, Rolston and Nils Aman).

An energy player with NHL bloodlines, Rolston’s appeal is his skating and work ethic. Those both showed up in his freshman year but the offense was nowhere to be found. When you’re a defensive defenseman like Clurman or Helleson, it’s okay to post just six points (1G, 5A) in 28 games in your freshman year.

But as a forward? Not very encouraging. Like Ambrosio, Rolston will absolutely be returning for his sophomore year. Unlike Ambrosio, there will be more concern than optimism surrounding his sophomore year as Rolston certainly needs a better showing if he’s going to put himself on the path to an NHL deal someday.

Minnesota vs. Omaha – Saturday, 7 p.m.

Just two prospects in this game but both are legitimate choices for ELCs. Let’s start with the bigger surprise of the two.

Tyler Weiss

An undersized forward who was drafted at 150 pounds, Weiss is a guy who needed multiple college years simply to fill into a frame that could stand a chance to survive in professional hockey, let alone anything else to do with the development of his actual game.

What we have always seen from Weiss is a smooth playmaker who combines high-end skating with great vision and soft hands. His ability to finish has been a question mark throughout his career but there’s no doubt he can make the guys around him better.

Through his first two college seasons, this was the book on Weiss and he lived up to it with 26 assists to just seven goals.

This year, however, Weiss added real scoring punch to the Mavericks roster as he scored seven goals and added 14 assists for 21 points in just 25 games played. That’s the kind of breakout that makes you wonder if he’s a real prospect.

The size is still an issue but the biggest obstacle to an ELC, at least this year, is the glut of forwards graduating to the pro ranks in Colorado’s system. The Avs have to make choices on Alex Beaucage, Sasha Mutala and Luka Burzan while also preparing for Weiss’s opponent on Saturday night to also jump to the pros.

Nikolai Kovalenko’s contract in Russia is also coming to an end, making him an ELC candidate for the Avalanche. If you add in Newhook and don’t immediately drop him into the NHL lineup, you’re talking about five other players at forward heading to the Eagles if they sign all of them.

Consider Martin Kaut and Shane Bowers are still not NHL regulars and it really shows the true glut the Avs are facing at forward right now. It might be difficult to get Weiss into the system and into a role they like for him this year.

One more year of waiting to see how his game and body develop and letting some of the logjam in the organization clear itself out might give Weiss the best chance to succeed in pro hockey. I think that’s the smart play but, like Helleson and Leivermann, I could understand if the Avs just said screw it and decided to get Weiss into the AHL now.

Sampo Ranta (Minnesota)

Here’s the guy everyone is buzzing about when they stop trying to figure out which line Newhook is playing for the Avs immediately.

Ranta was drafted in the third round in 2018 and has been the model of what you want from a mid-round pick in college hockey.

He had an encouraging freshman year as he scored 16 points (6G, 10A) in 36 games for the Gophers. His sophomore year was a small step forward but a meaningful one as he played for Finland at the WJCs and added 20 points (12G, 8A) in 35 games for Minnesota.

Encouraging!

Then this year happened.

Minnesota is a number one seed because they have a great collection of talent but without Sampo Ranta’s excellent season, they don’t achieve anywhere near this level of success.

Ranta’s point-per-game season of 29 points (18G, 11A) in 29 games has been a legitimate revelation in college hockey. While he won’t win the Hobey Baker or anything, Ranta’s game of power, skill, speed, and a lethal shot has come along to the point where he should 100% be getting an ELC from the Avs. If he doesn’t he’s either hellbent on UFA after his senior year or the Avs are doing something dumb. That simple.

Upon signing, Ranta should follow the ATO route laid out earlier for Newhook.

That’s everything to know about Colorado’s prospects in this year’s Men’s Hockey Tournament. I can’t remember the last time the Avs had this many guys in the tournament so take it all in on what could be a great day of hockey with BC-ND in the morning, followed by Avs-Vegas in the afternoon and capped off by Minnesota-Omaha at night.