Welcome to the second installment of “Avalanche Mailbag”, where I try – keyword try – to answer/address/discuss some of your questions and observations.
As I write this, the Avs have lost three games in a row and just lost two key young forwards (Tyson Jost and J.T. Compher), not to mention a defenseman (Patrik Nemeth) who was among the NHL’s leaders in plus-minus.
There has also been some discussion/speculation out there that things are getting worse between Matt Duchene and the team again. I’m going to, therefore, distill the many variations of the question, “Will Duchene be traded anytime soon?” into one and discuss it here. Here’s what I think:
I do think Duchene wants a change of scenery, and I am a bit concerned that his situation will become a larger distraction as time goes on. But I don’t think this is a case of him growing “more frustrated” of late. I haven’t sensed his attitude/demeanor any different from when he first reported for training camp. He’s been professional, has played hard and mixed with teammates. But this still is not a guy with big smiles on his face. He’s basically punching a time clock every day and going home when his shift is done.
Do we all wish it was a better situation? Of course. It’s been awkward from the start. You want everyone to love wearing the sweater. You want everyone to feel great about being where they are. I do believe that hockey is a game of chemistry and camaraderie, and when those things are missing, winning gets harder. That’s not to say everyone has to love each other. But when things are awkward, when people feel like they’re walking on eggshells around each other, it’s a tougher situation to develop winning chemistry in my opinion.
So, Joe Sakic needs to deal him as soon as possible, right? Well, if anything is imminent, I’m not hearing it. Not to say a deal can’t happen 10 minutes from now, but I’m still not hearing that anything is very close. If Sakic is going to deal Duchene, he wants full value in return. What is that? It depends who you ask, but everyone knows it’s, at minimum, a real good defenseman and/or a real good defensive prospect and probably a draft pick and/or another prospect.
Here’s the thing: Sakic probably only has until this season’s trade deadline to really get anything close to what he wants. If Duchene is not dealt by the start of next season, he’ll go into the final year of his contract with Colorado and be eligible to be an unrestricted free agent when that one is over. You think Duchene is going to want to re-sign here, if all things stay equal?
The Avs can NOT let Duchene walk for nothing, like they did with Paul Stastny in 2014. Now look, the Avs were in a damned if they did-damned if they didn’t scenario with Stastny then. Stastny was in the final year of his deal, eligible to be UFA and the Avs explored trading him. But they were in the midst of what finished a Central Division-winning season, with Stastny one of the top contributors. How would that have looked to the fans if they traded him? Stastny wound up getting a very fair offer to stay, but he took a little more money to sign with the St. Louis Blues.
The Avs have to get something for Duchene. I think they can still get a lot from a team that is desperate for offensive help.
Here’s what I think will happen: I think if the Avs continue to muddle along with a mediocre record, Duchene will be traded somewhat soon. I would bet by Christmas. If they have a good record, a playoff record, then I think you’ll see them wait closer to the trade deadline and thereby get the most of his playing talent until then. Either way, I think Duchene is gone by the deadline at the latest.
The deadline this season is Feb. 26. That’s a little more than four months away. By then, this whole saga should be over.
Hey Dater,
If Patrick Nemeth continues to play well throughout this year providing Barrie with the much-needed coverage, how likely is it that the Avs will extend/resign him. If they do will that delay the development of our younger defensemen that are rising through the ranks (Timmins, Makar, etc.) And secondly, at what point in the season should Yakupov be extended if his good play keeps up?
Thanks for all you guys do,
Jon Thomas
Jon,
I wouldn’t worry about Nemeth delaying the debut/development of either a Makar or Timmins. Both of those kids are big pieces of the Avs’ future, but they were still only drafted this summer. They’re still just teenagers. I definitely don’t think it’s out of the question either one, especially Makar, could make the team next season, but that might still be a stretch.
As for Yakupov, well…your question was sent a few days ago, before Yak was benched the other night by Jared Bednar for all of the third period. He certainly started off well, but as of this writing, Sunday night, he’s back in the doghouse. It’s been a frequent residence for him in his NHL career.
So, let’s hold off on the extension questions for now. He’s still got to prove he can be an everyday player.
Hey Dater,
The Avs genuinely look improved thus far this season. After watching the Broncos flounder at quarterback despite having an elite defense, it begs the question pertaining to the importance of drafting. Should the Avs tank this season on purpose to permanently (for the foreseeable future) address their woes at defense by drafting a generational talent of their own such as Dahlin, Svechnikov, or Boqvist? The Avs very well could sit squarely in the middle of the standings this season if they’re not careful and play to their current full potential. Would this be squandering a possibly epic draft class opportunity?
Thanks Dater,
Aaron Wagoner
Aaron (or A-Wags if you prefer)
Good question, but one that’s tough to answer. How has getting a top-5 pick in some of the most recent drafts done for their overall success? Trying to scheme the draft lottery is a risky thing, especially now that the worst team in the standings doesn’t guarantee itself the top pick. Just ask the Avs of last year.
On the other hand, you’re right: Fact is, sometimes being awful, tanking as much as you can, is the best way to get better faster. You get a generational kid at No. 1, and you can get back to the playoffs in a hurry. Edmonton did it in their second year with Connor McDavid, for instance.
My prevailing attitude, though: Don’t gratuitously try to tank. Play with honor, give the fans your best effort possible and go from there. It’s just better karma.
1. What do you think of Bednar’s systems so far (now that he has had a full offseason, actually had veterans at camp and has had the chance to hire his own staff)?
2. Bednar seems like an incredibly smart guy based on his interviews – I am always completely blown away by his ability to recall and break down multiple game moments while answering questions live. Given your experience with other coaches: is Bednar simply more articulate than average, or is he legit more astute on the bench?
Justin Anderson
Justin,
Personally, I do enjoy listening to and talking with Bednar. You’re right, he does have very good recall and breaks a down quickly and concisely. He’d probably be a great TV analyst. I’ve always enjoyed, for the vast majority of the time anyway, dealing with Avs coaches. From Marc Crawford to Bob Hartley to Tony Granato to Joel Quenneville to Joe Sacco to Patrick Roy and now to Bednar, they’ve all been professional with the media.
His systems? I mean, to me, your systems are only as good as your players. I have noticed the Avs are spending less time in their own zone than last year and seem to have a better scheme in getting pucks out. I think he has a more conservative offensive system than Patrick Roy did. His forwards aren’t as high up in the defensive zone as they were under Roy.
I just think that Bednar needs a better defense to play the kind of hockey he really wants. But every coach who isn’t winning usually says that. It’s why defensemen are at such a premium in this game now. And why it’s harder to get them in trade, even for a guy like Matt Duchene.
Hey AD,
First of all, I just wanna say I love the site, and what you AJ and the rest of the BSN crew do is fantastic and I look to you guys first for any Colorado sports news. My question for you, is what do you love most about being a writer?
Michael Harrison
Michael,
Thanks for the good words for myself, A.J. and BSN. We are growing very fast and I work with a bunch of insanely ambitious young people. I just try to keep up.
I’ve been really lucky to have earned a paycheck in this business every single year since I got out of college in…gulp, 1988. Academically, writing is the only thing that I’ve ever felt came easily to me. That isn’t to sound arrogant at all. I beat myself up constantly about my writing. It can always be better. It’s just that I’ve always felt at home with my fingers at a keyboard. Actually, when I was a kid, we wrote our papers in longhand, in pencil or pen. Being under a time pressure – a tight deadline – is something that’s never bothered me either. The tighter the deadline, the more I like it.
I just remember feeling comfortable writing, even at a very young age. I was an only child, had to amuse myself a lot, had to be “in my own thoughts” a lot. That might explain things a little more. I think that fits the profile of a lot of writers. I grew up just a sports junkie, but I also noticed the people doing the writing in the sports stories I read.
The thing that I’ve always liked about being a writer is that every story is different. I just like telling stories, telling stories from the perspective of the people I’m writing about as best I can. There have been times when I’ve felt writing about sports is meaningless.
Some nights in hotel rooms on the road, I’ve stared at the ceiling, saying stuff to myself like, “I’m writing about men pushing a piece of rubber around on ice. This is crap.” I guess you could call that my existential crisis phase. Thankfully, I think that phase has passed. I worked for a while as a teacher in a tough school district too, and that really helped me a lot. Being able to help even one kid made me feel like I was doing something more meaningful, and I think I did that with many kids.
But as one whom I told some of my existential angst told me in response: “Hey, what you’re doing has value to people like me. It’s how we get enjoyment away from our meaningless lives.”
That made more sense to me, lol.
Thanks to you and anyone else who has read my stuff over the years to have allowed me to do it.
Got a question for Adrian? Email him at Dater@thednvr.com
0 Comments (1 conversation)
Bob_W
Probably the best scenario for Sakic to get what he wants for Duchene by Christmas is for a team with the defensive players/prospects of the caliber that Sakic wants to have an injury or slump/failure on it’s top line(s). The more desperate the team the more willing they will be to give Sakic what he wants. But this requires the stars to line up a bit and apparently no such team is quite that desperate yet. As the trade deadline approaches you can add those teams that think the addition of Duchene will be that one missing piece that will put them over the top for the playoffs and/or the Cup.