What do you even say about Colorado’s 5-4 loss to Florida tonight? They started the game well, fell apart with a couple of very lazy shifts, and found themselves down 4-1 entering the third period. The Avs mounted a respectable comeback but another self-inflicted wound at the end cost them in regulation. Let’s get into the difference makers from this one.

Studs

J.T. Compher

In a game that ended as competitively as this one did, it was actually hard to find multiple standouts because every positive contribution was largely equaled by a disaster elsewhere (you’ll see below), but with Compher, it was pretty much just good stuff.

He finished playing over 20 minutes again, winning key faceoffs that ended up not mattering and notched a goal and an assist with five shots on goal.

It’s the all-around contributions you really love from Compher and he gave the Avs that again tonight. His turnaround goal to tie the game in the third was an excellent shot. Perfectly placed while using the screen in front.

Kurtis MacDermid

The big guy finished with two assists and a fight it appeared he won pretty handily before, well, hurting his hand. All of that in just 8:59 of ice time. He had some shaky moments with the puck in space, which probably contributed to the low ice time, but overall if you’re getting multiple points from a guy like this, it’s very hard to complain about any negatives you perceive.

Andrew Cogliano

I kind of loved Cogliano’s game tonight. He scores the tip-in goal in the first period to give the Avs a glimmer of life at 3-1. He worked hard all night, engaged physically and was more active offensively than either of his linemates. That I’m down to Cogliano as a stud in this game says more about the disastrous mistakes by the stars on Colorado than anything, but it’s still fair to give Cogs his love in this one.

Duds

Colorado’s top pairing

It’s not a long clip but here are Devon Toews and Cale Makar being negatively involved in game-changing mistakes.

The final clip is just an inexcusable icing from Makar and Mikko Rantanen. I’m not pinning blame on either of them alone but combined that just cannot happen there.

The first Florida goal is best described as soft. Soft by Toews behind the net as he definitively loses a board battle to Anton Lundell while Makar does this really strange fly-by where he doesn’t make any attempt to help at all.

Makar makes it worse by going to the front of the net, seeing where the puck is headed and then just trying to get a stick involved. Where is the physicality Makar loves to show? He had Barkov with his head down and cutting across the front of his net ripe for getting rocked.

I’m not advocating for any kind of headshot, of course, but Barkov puts himself into a vulnerable position and Makar allows it to happen, somehow ending up standing alone in front as Barkov weakly backhands a puck past Alexandar Georgiev, who certainly could’ve made a more competitive play of his own right there.

Then you have Toews making absolutely no attempt whatsoever to stay onside as Evan Rodrigues brought the puck up. The resulting play was a goal that was brought off the board. While the Avs eventually tied it anyway, it’s another mental blunder from Toews, a player known most for his hockey IQ.

Florida’s game-winning goal is also just a mess. Toews floats out high to keep Colorado’s PK structure intact, but it leaves Matthew Tkachuk alone down low. That decision ends in Tkachuk getting three free shots on the doorstep at Georgiev. Now, ultimately bad luck dooms them here but it was again Toews putting Colorado in a tough spot. They didn’t survive it.

Nathan MacKinnon’s 6-on-5 play

MacKinnon wasn’t bad the entire game and he certainly wasn’t playing his best game. Overall, I’d say it was fine. He scored Colorado’s third goal to get the comeback really revved up but it was an absolute freebie as Sergei Bobrovsky badly botched what should not have been a serious scoring chance. That’s hockey, though, and the Avs needed it.

When it came time for the extra attacker, however, the worst of MacKinnon came to play. We haven’t seen many sequences like this in MacKinnon’s career, but it really stands out.

Yikes.

Converting scoring chances

I’m not even going to say a lot here because I think the film speaks for itself pretty well.

My only real comment to add is I found it striking the number of odd-man rushes by the Avalanche where no pass ever got made. There were probably four scoring chances in that package above you could argue a pass across would’ve created an even better opportunity.

This otherworldly puck luck

There’s been this recent trend where the Avs lose a game thanks to a wide variety of factors, luck being one of them, and people being aggressive in how they respond to the existence of luck. For me, the reality is that luck decides a ton of things in life and sports. Sometimes stuff just happens.

When Matthew Tkachuk gets shut down on three shot attempts by Georgiev in the waning moments of a power play late in the third period of a tie hockey game, that should have been it. Instead, Cale Makar’s stick gets on the puck and he slides the puck across the crease, where it hits the skate of Evan Rodrigues, who is busy taking away the backdoor feed to Barkov, and deflects in.

That’s the game-winning goal. Sports are cruel.

Mikko Rantanen

The factors involved in Rantanen’s late-game penalty are all frustrating. J.T. Compher is clearly hit in the face with a high stick but officials rule it a follow-through. Seconds later, Rantanen makes contact with Nick Cousins, who very clearly embellishes the contact and goes down.

Again, it sucks that the coin flip of both calls went against the Avalanche, but the second part of that never happens if Rantanen just keeps his cool and makes a smarter defensive play versus running into a guy who doesn’t have the puck.

Combine that late-game misstep with the number of scoring chances he had in the clips above, and you have a lot of “what if?” moments from Mikko Rantanen left out on that ice.

Unsung Hero

Florida’s pre-scout

This was something that caught my eye during the game quite a bit. Colorado has been one of the trendsetters in the NHL recently with a forward floating to the blueline to take a weak wrister from the point. The hope is the shot is either easily tipped or well-located and floats in.

We’ve seen MacKinnon score several of these goals over the last couple of years and other teams noticed and started copying that play. As other teams began incorporating it, defending it also became paramount. Now in my anecdotal experiences, this play is a staple only in Colorado, so it should be part of the video coach’s pre-scout notes on the Avs.

It would appear Paul Maurice remembered his time coaching the Winnipeg Jets in recent years and made sure the Panthers were prepared for this little wrinkle in Colorado’s playbook.

You’ll see below several instances where the Panthers aggressively defend the Avs’ desire to play with a forward or two out high in the offensive zone. Each of these ended up in either turnovers or no real scoring chance.

That final clip is interesting to me because the Panthers, in a 5-on-6 situation, chose not to try to press the situation and match Colorado’s numbers out high, but MacKinnon was afraid of trying to make the long pass across with just the one defender there.

Essentially, one Panthers player defended both Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen in that sequence because the Avs failed to adjust throughout the game to Florida’s pressure up high in the offensive zone.

This is something to keep an eye on in games moving forward after the Panthers had success flustering Nathan MacKinnon in particular.