I love spring/summer and I hate spring/summer. Love the weather, love the later daylight, love the easier way of life in general. Hate the fact that the off-season for a hockey team out of the playoffs early is so loooong. Doesn’t it already seem like a long time ago that the Avs finished up? Only four-plus months to go before we see any Avs players back on ice around here.
So, lots of time for things like this, a lazy Tuesday Mailbag.
Let’s get to it:
Can this roster win a Stanley Cup in the next 6 years?
— x-Mike Klynsma (@MikeKlynsma) May 8, 2018
Mike,
Well, maybe not THIS roster. But a roster that includes Conor Timmins and Cale Makar and as many as three more first-round picks by this time next year, not to mention any players from free agency/trade? Sure, that roster might be able to win a Stanley Cup. Take it from me – the optimist!
What’s the dream scenario for the Avs at goalie next season?
— Ryan Koenigsberg (@RyanKoenigsberg) May 8, 2018
Well, Ryan (a k a, one of my bosses),
I guess the dream scenario right now is that Semyon Varlamov comes back fully recovered from his latest injury and returns to Vezina Trophy-finalist form. He is entering the final year of his contract, and I always like it when guys have that “new contract” carrot in front of them. Let’s face it, Varly is almost certain to be the team’s No. 1 goalie for another year. Sure, they just signed Czech goalie Pavel Francouz to a one-year, one-way deal, but he has zero NHL experience and some of his saves percentages in international competition are south of the Mendoza line.
What about Jonathan Bernier, you ask? Well, I talked briefly with his agent today. He does plan to talk soon with Joe Sakic about the possibility of a new deal in Denver, but I get the feeling that is just a matter of courtesy/formality. I think he’s going to test the open market on July 1. That’s just my hunch at this point. But I just think Bernier is going to be looking for more security than the one-year deal he played on this past season in Colorado. And, I just have a hard time seeing the Avs invest long-term in him. Yes, he was outstanding for a good chunk of last season, but he finished poorly. I know injuries might help explain some of that. But I just can’t see the Avs writing a massive check to him long-term. We’ll see, but the best hope the Avs have right now continues to rest with Varly. A little scary? Yeah, it is. But goaltending is always worrisome.
Is the NHL potentially headed for another lock out when the current CBA expires?
— Evan Brucker (@EvanBrucker) May 8, 2018
Evan,
Depends who you ask. I’ve had a couple of agents tell me they think there will be another one, for sure. And I’ve had a couple others tell me they think a lockout will be avoided. The big fight is going to come down to escrow. As I detailed in an exclusive story for BSN a few weeks ago, players lost 14-percent of their paychecks from the 2015-16 season, because of escrow. That money was lost and is never coming back. That’s a huge loss for players.
As I wrote in the story: “Players and their agents definitely are not happy about it. One player agent told BSN Denver that the escrow issue will be the “hill the players are prepared to die on” when the current NHL collective bargaining agreement expires in 2022 – although there are “opt-out” windows for the NHL and players in September of 2019.”
The owners certainly aren’t going to want to opt out of this current CBA in 2019. The players might. Or, they might just wait ’til 2022 and worry about it then. I hope it’s the latter.
Are there any concrete plans to build and move into a new practice facility?
— SC Brothers (@BrothersSteve) May 8, 2018
Hey Steve,
The Avs aren’t saying much about when/if they plan to move to a new facility. We did a story last year about it, and Josh Kroenke said it could be a double-facility housing the Avs and Nuggets. But as of now, it doesn’t seem as if anything will be ready by the start of this coming season.
If Spencer Martin is the avs “best” goalie prospect should they take the best available goalie in the draft early to ensure a quality prospect or try to sign/ trade for a younger prospect?
— Brendan Reinhart (@bjreinhart) May 8, 2018
Brendan,
Generally, the rule of thumb is to not draft goalies high in the first round. My colleague A.J. Haefele and I talked about this on a recent BSN Avalanche podcast, and he said the Avs should not even think about taking a goalie with the 16th pick next month. Me, I’m not so hard-and-fast about this supposed cardinal rule. If there’s a guy who scouts see as a potential excellent goalie and he’s available, I don’t see why it would be so bad to take him. It’s certainly an organizational need right now.
Thing is, goalies take so long to develop. You don’t just draft an 18-year-old goalie and put him in your starting lineup like you can easier with position players. But with the Avs having a first-round pick this year and two others next year (the one belonging to Ottawa), I don’t see why they couldn’t at least think about a goalie at No. 16 this year.
Odds the Avs make a run at Karlsson or Carlson???
— Jackson (@BiggieSchmahlz) May 8, 2018
Hey Biggie,
If Karlsson is offered in trade, you know they’re gonna want an established player or two and probably their 2019 first-round pick back. I don’t see that happening, therefore. But a nice offer for potential UFA John Carlson? Yeah, I can certainly see that. He’ll get a nice offer from probably most every team in the league, though. He’s a right-hand shot D-man who posted 68 points in 82 games this season. He’s gonna get paid. Yes, the Avs will have a ton of cap room and, yes, they can always use another good D-man. I expect the Avs to make a very nice offer for him, indeed.
Hi Adrian. What is your opinion on signing Panarin. Avs needs wingers and UFA after next season
— человек в худи (@pol12va) May 8, 2018
I’d be all for it. Hell, it’s not my money. He’s got one year left at $6 million before he can be UFA. He’s got great talent. Why not?
Thanks for the questions.
0 Comments (2 conversations)
Nels
Good stuff AD, thanks. Given the Avs cap situation, and Varly’s constistency issues and expiring contract, why would the Avs not be willing to pay Bernie decent money and lock him into something like 3-5 years? Given the Avs cap situation, and Varly’s constistency issues, If he leaves aren’t we right back in the same spot as end of last season (give or take a Hamburgler)? Except Varly has only 1 season left on his contract. Scary. Who else is there?
Nels
Other than Andrew Hammond, obviously, whom the Avs definitely need to be bringing back for cheap. I can’t believe how little respect you give the Hamburlger considering his .935 SV% over 10 periods of hockey this season, 7 of those periods in the playoffs against the #1 team in the regular season. The guy won us like half of the Avs road playoff wins in the last decade, right? Maybe all of the Avs road playoff wins in the last decade, I can’t remember. Where’s the recognition for that? This new Czech guy has never played a second in the NHL and is getting more attention than Hamburgler’s 138 PLAYOFF minutes this year, at .933. What gives? Why aren’t you guys pounding the tables to bring back the Hamburgler for cheap?
Chris DeMott
I think because Mr. Hammond has history of playing like little Johnny. When he’s good, he’s very good. But, when he’s bad… The problem with that at the NHL level is that “Very Good” might steal you 3 to 5 games a season but “very bad” will cost you a higher percentage of those games. You want a guy that can roll a 915 to a 920 consistently and not blow up on you. Berra had the same issue, he was actually very good most of the time but he couldn’t win the off games.
You can’t believe how little respect we give a guy based on 10 periods of play? Really? Any of these guys are capable of coming up from the AHL and having one great night. Hammond did that in Nashville and we showered him with praise. Then the next game happened and he was god awful. Regardless of whatever caveats you want to throw out there about the defense in front of him, Hammond was terrible in game six. He’d even tell you that. 10 periods is not enough time to pass any judgment on any player at any level. It’s an extremely small snapshot.
The reality is Andrew Hammond just isn’t a very good goaltender. He played a great game in game five in Nashville and then got smoked in game six. His “real” level is somewhere in the middle of that but you won’t see the great nearly as often as the rest of it otherwise he would’ve been able to hold a job in the AHL. He hasn’t been good enough to do that and his NHL stints have all been small sample sizes for a reason.
Francouz is getting the shiny new toy treatmeant but we’ve said over and over he’s ticketed to start the season in the AHL as the 3rd goalie on the depth chart. The only reason there’s any kind of hype around him is because it’s May and news is few and far between right now.
Nels
The reality is Hammond’s NHL numbers state that he IS a good goaltender. .935 over 10 periods isn’t 1 good game, it’s more than that. He locked down the last 2 periods of the Philly game and gave the Avs the chance to win, and he did the same in the 3rd period in game 4 against the Preds. He wasn’t awful in game 6. The only goals I can find to fault him on were breakaway lasers from 2 of the best in the game (Forsberg and Arvidson). Why do we care about the AHL? His NHL numbers are all good, like, really good. I think you just don’t like the guy AJ.
Nels
Also based on his 25 games for the Sens.
Why would I have a bias against the guy? I have nothing against any of these guys. His NHL numbers are all SSS and his significantly larger sample at a league of lesser competition says he’s not the player he’s shown himself to be in the NHL but only in small doses. The data suggests he’s a player who has played above his ability in the NHL and given enough time the balloon will pop. All of my player analysis is built around a combination of what I see and what hard data tells me. And his NHL numbers have been propped up either by playing one or two games, which is meaningless in terms of drawing any kind of real conclusion, or he had the miracle run with Ottawa out of nowhere. Peter Budaj had one of those runs once upon a time. Guys can get hot. The encouraging part of Hammond’s career is the .914 he posted in 2015-16. But his inability to even be league average in the AHL is a major red flag to me and a big reason why I’m not handing a backup job he hasn’t earned over to him, especially with a starter with injury history like Varly’s.
Dan G
That’s the problem. A quick look at Cap Friendly sorted by UFA Goalers and you’ll see a dearth of options.
100% this. That void in the market is why Bernier would be wise to test the market. The Avs would be unwise to invest 3 years in ANY goaltender available in UFA this year. None justify that commitment.
Nels
Except Bernier. Bernier justifies the commitment.
Bernier doesn’t justify that commitment. His entire career, save one year in Toronto, he’s produced at a rate of a good backup. You don’t give long-term commitments to backup goaltenders.