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A tornado emerges victorious in a battle between an avalanche and a hurricane

AJ Haefele
AJ Haefele
February 29, 2020
A tornado emerges victorious in a battle between an avalanche and a hurricane

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AJ Haefele

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JDC15

JDC15

February 29, 2020

Good stuff AJ. At the start of the season if you had said the Avs would be missing Mikko, Kadri, Grubauer, Calvert and that MacKinnon was pointless you’d chalk it up to an L.

JDC15 Replying to JDC15

February 29, 2020

100%

earl08

earl08

February 29, 2020

That was a tricky goal. TT seemed to have enough time to get leverage and shoot high, but I think he saw Johnson closing and decided there wasnt time to drag it. From the goalie’s view, TT was wide open and probably looking to go high; the quick/low shot was a surprise. Iginla used to drag and kick, then go 5-hole like a bawse, bc it is so unnatural.

teerav42

teerav42

February 29, 2020

That is a fun fact AJ. I want to wish Duchene the best, but that’s not very feasible with him in Nashville these days.

Nieminen4Prez

Nieminen4Prez

February 29, 2020

Carolina seems like a team that plays to impress the stats folks (fwiw, I love fancy stats), but doesn’t necessarily translate those stats to wins.

They launch shots from everywhere and are no. 1 in the league in that department, but their team shooting percentage is 8.6%. I know the general thought is that they should be around 10% but I think their shot selection makes it more than likely that they will underperform in this metric.

2018-19 they had a 8.1% shooting percentage.
2017-18 they had a 8.5% shooting percentage.
2016-17 they had a 8.0% shooting percentage.

Either they are the unluckiest team in the world or there is something to be gleaned from these stats and the way Carolina plays.

I’m probably missing something and would love to hear your take, AJ.

Nieminen4Prez Replying to Nieminen4Prez

February 29, 2020

Generating shots/scoring chances is great but if you don’t have players capable of beating goaltenders, it’s all process and no finish. This where the Avs have been able to outperform their underlying process metrics over the years. They’ve had players capable of blowing pucks past goaltenders. The Hurricanes have been low on high-end offensive players for years and while they have a few nice finishers now (Aho, Svechnikov), they’re still not deep on legit goal scorers. All that quality shot generation goes to the goaltender too often and that’s just a talent problem for them.

Carolina is middle of the road on the shooting percentage so it isn’t like their 8% this year is a major outlier in any direction. They’re just not an elite finishing team despite being tops in Corsi and fourth in generating scoring chances. They do everything right except finish. A good reminder that a team full of analytics darlings can only take you so far if you don’t have elite talent somewhere.

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Nieminen4Prez

Nieminen4Prez

February 29, 2020

Makes sense. Appreciate the response!

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