Avalanche Roundtable: What are the expectations for Avalanche-Predators?

The regular season is over and the road to the Stanley Cup is set for the Colorado Avalanche. They open up in Round 1 as the number one seed out west, taking on a Nashville Predators team that sputtered a bit coming into the postseason as they blew a four-goal lead against the Arizona Coyotes in the final game of the season that would have sent them to Calgary as the seventh seed.

Game 1 of the series begins Tuesday night in Denver. We’re doing a bunch of different written and video content on the playoffs, so it’s as good a time as any to get a roundtable rolling.

Colorado and Nashville. Reverse seeds from the last time these two teams met in the postseason. We’ll start on Colorado’s side of this. What most concerns you about the Avalanche right now?

AJ:

Losing six of the last seven, it would be easy to pick something. Lack of confidence, poor special teams results, weak finish to the season by Darcy Kuemper. Pick something, right? Really, the thing that stands out most to me, however, is a lack of chemistry. The Avs haven’t played a single game with what will be their Game 1 lineup. It was 82 games of piecemeal lineups. Versatility is great, but they are going to be learning how to best utilize their players on the fly.

Jesse:

For me, I don’t see a ton of areas with this team that make me “concerned”, but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t see any potential problems. My biggest thing is making sure they don’t get too far ahead of themselves. The narrative all year has been about the second round, and I know the team wants to prove everybody wrong, but I worry that they may end up being too focused on that, and forget that they need to reach the second round first. The coaches and leadership group have given you every reason to believe this won’t happen, but it’s human nature and it’s tough to look past.

Meghan:

The Avalanche’s means to apply the right amount of pressure as needed has been tested throughout this season. We’ve watched this Avalanche team earn and lose leads with the ability to find their way back to winning in the end in a number of different ways. It’s a component of their identity that has required unity in order for the team to assess the effort needed to elevate their play. This bodes well for the chemistry among the team, but this is also an area that lacked cohesion in their final stretch. In the April 22nd Edmonton game where MacKinnon, Nichuskin, and Cale Makar committed full efforts, it was noted that the team wasn’t in total agreement on the level of effort that was expected. This miscalculation could be chalked up to a few things – I believe the decision to conserve efforts was intentional across the board to mitigate injury risk, but it is concerning that they appeared to execute this differently in their efforts. It is my belief the end result was every bit intentional with guys resting, but I fear there will be a little bit of recalibration in Game 1 as they return to mutual understanding and applying necessary pressure.

Rudo:

The injury readjustments. Landeskog being the obvious one here, he hasn’t played in six weeks and if the return isn’t seamless the top line could be fighting an uphill battle from the start. Down the stretch, we’ve seen a number of different players held out for varying lengths because of nagging injuries. This time of year no one is fully healthy and the Avs getting time off is certainly a positive but it also showed just how many guys are dealing with something here or there that the Avs will have to battle through.

Now to Nashville’s side. When looking at the Predators today, what presents the biggest challenge to Colorado’s ability to win a best-of-seven?

AJ:

Simply put, it’s that their best players have had the kind of seasons that suggest they can go toe-to-toe with Colorado’s best players. Now, the Avs are certainly deeper, but Colorado’s ultimate trump card is their high-end talent is just…better. Nashville’s best players might have overperformed for 82 games, but it will be a challenge for Colorado’s big guns to match their output.

Jesse:

I think you are going to get the absolute best effort they have to give from Nashville, and there are a couple of guys that really love to play against the Avalanche. I really do think this series is going to feel a lot like the 2018 series between these two teams. The Preds are going to hang around in most every game, after all, they’ve got some quality high-end talent. If they are within striking distance every night, they’ll have some guys that can make plays.

Meghan:

I’ll never underestimate the motivation and inspiration playoff hockey can bring. There is added incentive for Matt Duchene to advance in post-season play and it’s hardwired in every single hockey player to aspire to win it all. Nashville has a solid offensive threat in their top line of Forsberg, Granlund, and Duchene and their fanbase is a passionate one – the atmosphere in Bridgestone Arena for Games 3 and 4 will likely energize them.

Rudo:

With it looking like Juuse Saros is going to be sidelined for the entire series the answer really is not much. The Avs are the better team at every position on the ice. The only thing to fear is that the Preds are the team of destiny, they sit with four players shooting above 18%. For three of them, that’s more than 5% above their career averages. If the hockey gods decide the bounces go in the net, that’s tough to beat.

Pick one player from the Avalanche that you think will be the depth guy to make a play that changes the series.

AJ: I’m throwing a hail mary with Nico Sturm. We saw him overextended most of his Avalanche tenure but at the very end of the season, he finally slid into the 4C job and looked as good as any Avalanche 4C in many years. Could he really be the answer at the position the Avs have been looking for since the glory days of Stephane Yelle? I’m saying yes.

Jesse:

JT Compher. Say what you will about Compher, but he quietly almost scored 20 goals this year and has a track record of making plays and scoring goals in huge playoff moments. Compher is a Swiss Army knife for this team, and they’ll need him to come through in a moment where they’re looking to put the series away, and I think he does it.

Meghan:

Erik Johnson has been … pretty solid down the stretch. With a goal and an assist in his last 5 games and defensive play that has kept the Avalanche in things, I like the way he is trending at this point in the year. I’m not expecting fireworks, but I am hopeful for quiet defensive plays that limit opportunities in their own end, and I like him as a means to not overextend Cale Makar and Devon Toews.

Rudo:

It’s the guy you least expect so I’m going to say, Jack Johnson. Did you know he has 21 points in 30 playoff games? Granted all of those points came a half-decade ago or more. Everyone remembers Krupp’s cup-winning goal in ’96 but the Avs two successful playoff runs are dotted with big goals from defensemen that aren’t Hall of Famers. Adam Foote found a bit of a scoring touch in both the Avs cup runs.  Jon Klemm’s insurance goal gave the Avs the win in game 3 against the Kings in ’01, Skoula also had a goal in game 3 of the cup finals that year though admittedly less pivotal. Craig Wolanin scored what is technically a game-winning goal in game 2 of the Conference semis against Chicago in 96. If those guys can do it, Jack Johnson can.

Which pending Avalanche free agent has the most to lose this postseason?

AJ: I think just based on the nature of the position, it’s Darcy Kuemper by default. He’ll never get a better opportunity on a high-end team than right now. His postseason career has quietly been pretty good, but he was always an underdog. He isn’t now. The pressure will never be higher for him to make good. Failure to do so could have a devastating effect on his ability to get a big deal this summer.

Jesse:

I think it’s Nazem Kadri. This guy just had the best year of his career, being a centerpiece for a bonafide Cup contender. He is going to get paid, so long as he can kick a horrible personal playoff trend. Kadri has one last chance to land the big deal and set himself up for life, and as of this moment, someone is absolutely going to give him a huge contract, but if he goes out and does something stupid in the playoffs (for the fourth time) that costs his team, potential suitors may look at that and say “Nah, we’re good.”  His regular season was great, but he needs to have impactful playoffs to prove to everyone else, and himself, that he has grown as a player.

Meghan:

I wanted to give an answer not already given, but it’s also Darcy Kuemper for me. Where playoffs are concerned, he’s on a bit of a redemption tour, so this will serve as an important indicator of his capabilities following what has been a good season for him with the Colorado Avalanche. If he brings the Avalanche on a deep cup run, the Avalanche may not be able to keep up with his market price if this is a relationship he’d wish to continue. Should he choose to look elsewhere, he will have to contend with a situation similar to Philipp Grubauer. In this case, Kuemper will be without a Cale Makar, Toews, Byram, and say what you will, Girard. It could be a shock to the system.

Rudo:

Kuemper is the real answer but if you are talking skaters I’m going to say Andre Burakovsky. Burky’s regular season stands just fine and is going to get him paid a nice tidy sum, but a big postseason from a guy like that is the perfect recipe for a team to make a mistake. He already has one Cup under his belt as a depth option in Washington, another one would really cement him as a key piece to playoff success especially if he shows significant production on the Avs second line.

Nothing about Colorado or Nashville for this one. Which non-Avalanche playoff series are you most excited to keep tabs on?

AJ: I’m honestly bored of the teams out west and while Minnesota-St. Louis looks great on paper, those are two teams I’ve watched enough of to last a lifetime. Toronto and Tampa Bay each have extraordinary streaks going. The Lightning have won eight straight playoff series, the Leafs lost seven straight. While TB has won the last two Stanley Cups, they would be underdogs in this series if their opponent was anyone other than a Leafs team everyone expects to find comical ways to screw up. I’m thrilled that series is on Colorado’s off-days.
Jesse:

Tampa/Toronto is easily #1 on my list of non-Avalanche must-see TV. After that, I’ll keep an eye on Florida/Washington, Minnesota/St Louis, and I’m really curious to see how things shake out with New York/Pittsburgh.

Meghan:

The Minnesota/Blues series could go a number of different ways in my mind. Minnesota has been on something extra lately and I’m really curious to watch along for the ride. Binnington in playoff form always provides me with entertainment and Kirill Kaprizov is to me what Trevor Zegras has been much of this season – an embodiment of some of my absolute favorite things to enjoy about hockey.

Rudo:

The entire east looks like it’s going to be an absolute bloodbath, let chaos reign. It’s hard not to be immediately hyped on Tampa VS Toronto but I do have quite a bit of curiosity about where teams like Florida and New York stand now that we are down to proper playoff hockey. For many teams it’s been weeks of essentially meaningless games, let’s see who turns up now that everything is on the line.