Avalanche Roundtable: Is Lawson Crouse A Good Fit For Colorado?

Earlier today Andi Duroux profiled this year’s most interesting NHL Draft prospect, Lawson Crouse, and we wanted to expand on the discussion a bit so Andi, Cole Hamilton, and I sat down to discuss the possibility of the Avalanche selecting the burly forward 10th overall.

Lawson Crouse is one of the most divisive draft prospects in years. His combination of skills and questionable production make him about as polarizing a prospect as you can get. His pre-draft rankings range from 4th overall down to 35th. With the Avalanche owning the 10th overall pick, how would you feel about the team selecting him were he available?

Andi:  I for one am not thrilled about the prospect of drafting Crouse. If the Avs go the forward route with the 10th Overall pick, they need someone who can very comfortably break the Top 6 and bring scoring to the team. Crouse has nice size, a great wrister, and a high defensive acumen, but I don’t think he has the overall offensive instinct to make him worth a high pick in such a deep draft.

Cole: Unless something unfathomable happens on the draft board, I wouldn’t have a problem with drafting Lawson Crouse at 10th overall this June. The big question surrounding Crouse, which Andi addressed above is his offensive production. Why hasn’t he produced more in the OHL? Will he produce in the NHL? Is a team that picks him in the top 10 leaving too much raw talent on the board? They’re all fine questions, but I think when you see a player as complete as Lawson Crouse with the added bonus of size and an NHL ready defensive game, you have to stand up and take notice.

Most of the time when a team reaches to draft a power forward, they leave significant offensive talent on the board. Last year for example, Josh Ho-Sang dropped to late in the first round despite being one of the most gifted players in the draft. Three years ago the Avalanche balked on the undeniably talented and absolutely electric Jonathan Huberdeau to take a big bodied, complete power forward with question marks surrounding his offensive production. Today that player is the team’s captain and leading scorer.

AJ: I think the last point Cole makes is a crucial one. When talking about Crouse’s relative lack of production, especially in a draft littered with elite production players, you have to remember that he produced similarly to Landeskog at the same age and Landy went 2nd overall. Is it really such a reach to believe that Crouse is worthy of a top-10 pick when one of his most similar comps production and style wise is producing for the exact team we’re talking about selecting him?

Andi:  For that, I refer you first of all to this article looking at potential comps for Crouse. You’re right that Landeskog is a pretty good measuring stick, but it’s also worth noting that 2011 wasn’t an incredibly strong draft. Yes, the Avs passed on Huberdeau, but he was really the only other choice. Most of the other defensive minded players on that list were either later picks or ended up not meeting expectations.

In this draft, with other power forwards potentially still on the board like Zacha, Rantanen, and Meier – all of whom potentially have higher offensive upsides while still bringing the size of Crouse – the Avs have options and can pick and choose a little more. And that’s even before you start talking about the defensemen or smaller skilled forwards that could still be there at 10. In any other year, Crouse would be an absolute steal in the double digits, but I doubt he’s going to live up to expectations.

The forwards taken early this year will be judged on their point totals. Yes, his defensive game will help his team win games, but sure-fire high-end scoring is so rare a find later in the draft that when you get a chance to take it plus size, you don’t question it.

AJ: So the crux of your argument is that his offensive potential might be more limited than those selected around him. All 3 of the guys you mentioned had specific situations that help them. Meier played with a dominant center in Nikolaj Ehlers, Rantanen is playing in a league with adults, and Zacha’s production actually wasn’t all that good but it was his first year in North America.

Consider if Sam Bennett had been healthy all season and played with Crouse and that had boosted his point totals by even 20 points, a reasonable assumption given Bennett’s dominance at the level, would this even be a conversation? Would Crouse still be considered a guy that might even be available at 10th overall?

Cole: It’s a fair question especially since Crouse brings an element of perceived safety to scouts that the others don’t. Meier has some holes in his defensive game and his skating, Rantanen has similar skating issues and is yet to show on North American ice, and Zacha has an extremely small body of work for scouts to judge. With Lawson Crouse “What you see is what you get.”

No matter how far he slips in the NHL Entry Draft next month, it’s likely that he’ll be playing in the NHL next season because unlike most others in this part of the draft, he’s proven with Team Canada that he can handle tough defensive minutes and penalty killing every bit as well as a traditional top six role.

Andi: I’ll agree on that point.  At 10, you’re not going to get a perfect prospect, and Crouse’s defense does mean he has a fall-back as a defensive 3rd liner, if you will.  But for me, it’s the other details of his game that are really troubling. His passing is bad (even for Avalanche standards), and he seems rather weak on the puck. Even though he’s huge out there, I can’t tell you how many times I’ve watch a smaller player come in and easily remove the puck from his possession with a stick lift or well-timed bump.

His hands, especially in light to mid traffic, concern me, as does his vision.  He certainly wasn’t paired with the best players out there, but he didn’t make them better either.

I think it comes down to how you value the 10th overall pick.  I don’t really care what position it is, but I want to see us select someone who makes his teammates better on both ends of the ice. Crouse has the D down, but I don’t think he’s ever going to be that guy on offense. I question how he’d play with Duchene (for example), and I think #9 would be extremely frustrated and unable to find much chemistry with his style of play.

I’d rather take a slight risk to get someone that Duchene or MacKinnon can make scoring magic with than settle for a “safe” choice who probably will be a defensive tweener.

AJ: I’ll let Corey Pronman give my last thoughts about why I think Crouse and the Avs would be a good match come draft day:

“In the case of Crouse, the scouting analysis shows us that we have a winger who has skating and puck skills that are good (but not great), is great defensively, has high-end hockey sense and has an elite physical game. That combination of skills projects a reasonable ceiling of that player being an above-average scoring NHLer who clearly isn’t top-line caliber in scoring but plays very well versus the opponent’s best forwards and can be one of a team’s top penalty killers. If that outcome is realized, this is a very valuable asset for any NHL team and certainly for any of the teams looking to be picking in the top 10 of this year’s draft.”

Cole: At the end of the day, whatever player the Avalanche select 10th overall is going to have their legacy measured in comparison with the other players available on the board when they were selected. With such a fluid group of talent near the top of this year’s draft, I don’t feel comfortable calling Lawson Crouse a surefire win at 10th overall, but I don’t see anything wrong with the selection in principle, or with his fit for the Avalanche roster and organization.

The Avalanche as an organization are rich in young, high end offensive talent, but they’ve struggled to acquire the kind of possession driving force that many scouts expect Lawson Crouse to become at the next level. At the end of the day, the opportunity to acquire another young possession driving power forward who can play in all situations and kill penalties as soon as next season may be too good to pass up for an Avalanche team that finished 29th in the NHL last year for puck possession.

Lawson Crouse may not be the sexy pick with long dazzling highlight reels, but he could be the right pick for an organization in desperate need at the forward position.

Andi:  When you come right down to it, my biggest problem with Crouse is his upside.  When I look at all the issues the other prospects slated around that range have, I see relatively fixable deficiencies.  I don’t think that’s much the case with Crouse.

His two-way play will help whichever team drafts him win many games, but possession means nothing if you can’t pass, find your teammates, or keep the puck on your stick. Those are the core problems with the team’s current Corsi woes, so Crouse is far from a cure-all.  I’d just much rather see the Avs target someone with the offensive instincts to live up to a Top 10 pick and work to fill in defensive holes than watch them purposely limit themselves with a prospect who has little room to grow.