Avalanche Roundtable: Important second half looms for Colorado

The Avalanche finished up the first half of their regular-season schedule with a thrilling comeback win against the Boston Bruins last night. They end the first half where they ended the regular season last year: First place.

As the second half schedule begins with Friday night’s roadie in Chicago, let’s see what the Avs gang has to say about the first half and what to look forward to in the next 41 games.

What’s the biggest Avalanche-related surprise from their first 41 games?

AJ: When the Avs take the ice on Sunday against the Buffalo Sabres, it will have been 87 days since they lost their last home game. They’re one win away from setting an NHL record for wins in a single month. A 4-5-1 start turned into a 30-8-3 record. That’s six losses in the first 10 games and five in the next 31. This has all happened with Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews, and Val Nichushkin all missing 10+ games and the Avs using four goaltenders.

Evan: That Kurtis MacDermid is actually…getting better? He looked atrocious every game he played defense early in the season, but the Avs have managed to shelter him over the last little while and he’s played pretty well. I still don’t trust him and wouldn’t want him in the top six heading into the postseason, but credit to him, as his reads are better and it looks like his skating has improved a little as well.

Jesse: For me, it has to be Nazem Kadri, right? When the Avs acquired him a couple seasons ago, I said that he needed to be the 2017 version of himself, a version that saw him eclipse the 30-goal mark twice, for it to be a real home run for the Avs. Well, he has been that and then some through the first half of the season. We knew he had the ability to score and generate offense, but this season he’s putting in the work first, and then allowing his skill to take over when needed, and he’s showing that he has the ability to be even more than a 30-goal guy.

What first-half development either inspires the most confidence or the most concern heading into the second half of the season?

AJ: The thing that has felt the best to me has been player development itself. Alex Newhook has looked very comfortable after his brief AHL stint and his two-way play has been a vital part of the success of the forwards. Logan O’Connor began as a fourth line rotational type and is solidly on Colorado’s third line and occasionally moonlights in a bigger role. Before the injury issues, Bowen Byram was showing himself to be more than ready for major NHL minutes. Even Justin Barron and Justus Annunen had promising showings in brief NHL stints. Waiver claim Nicolas Aube-Kubel looks increasingly comfortable in Colorado by the day and is playing a role the Avs really needed. As Evan mentioned above, Kurtis MacDermid has gone from borderline unplayable to stringing together several solid showings. If those arrows continue trending upward, the Avs will be even better come playoff time.

Evan: The Bowen Byram situation. It’s awful, and there’s no other way to put it. His absence really hurts the top four on defense and maybe forces the Avs hand a bit on going after a bigger fish on defense than they would have liked to. I really hope on a personal level that he starts to feel better because he has a long career (and life) ahead of him to look forward to.

Jesse: I’ll take the upbeat approach on this one. The way the Avalanche are winning games this season has to instill the most confidence we’ve had in this team in decades. They can win close games, tonight checking games, they can play with pace, they can slow things down, they can grind out the win, or just purely out-skill you. A team we’ve seen many times over the years get uncomfortable in games and just let things get away from them. This year’s group seems to be taking a lot of very tough lessons learned from previous seasons and looks like they’re starting to put it all together. 

Which non-trade deadline storyline are you most intrigued by moving forward?

AJ: It’s Darcy Kuemper for me. He’s in a contract year, he’s already over 30 (the cursed number in the NHL these days), and this was the best shot he was ever going to get to prove he could be an impact goaltender on a team serious about winning. His slow start has turned into a pretty solid season. I want to see how he handles the spotlight of having to backstop a potential top seed through the postseason. Grubauer folded like the French last year, so seeing how Kuemper does is my primary curiosity.

Evan: Have the Avs truly made home-ice advantage a thing? Last year, they lost a crucial Game Five on home ice in overtime that really stung against Vegas. This year, they seem dead set on getting the home-ice advantage, and the way they’re playing at home, that could be a massive difference.

Jesse: It’s this goaltending tandem for me. We aren’t talking about it much, given what they gave up to acquire Kuemper, I don’t think we thought there would be any type of controversy over who the starter is. I’m not necessarily saying there will be one, but the way Pavel Francouz has looked since FINALLY returning from injury, coupled with the fact that you could have made a legitimate argument for him to be the starter over Grubauer (before Francouz got injured, and ya know.. the multi-month COVID pause) in 2020 when Frankie went 21-7-4 with a .923 SV% and a 2.41 GAA in 34 appearances, makes you wonder.. could he put some pressure on Kuemper if he continues to trend upward? At the very least, you hope it pushes Kuemper to elevate his game as well. Both guys want the net, both guys are playing well, and right in this moment, it’s hard to say that there’s much separation between the two.

I know it’s early but Colorado has five high-profile pending free agents (Kadri, Burakovsky, Nichushkin, Kuemper, Francouz). Rank their importance to Colorado’s Cup chances.

AJ: Kuemper, Kadri, Burakovsky, Nichushkin, Francouz. Obviously I feel a way about Kuemper, but no Kadri against Vegas last year very easily could have been the difference. Burakovsky’s disappearance in that series was also huge (another area where Kadri’s absence hurt). Nichushkin is so reliable at this point that you take what you know you’re going to get (great defense, solid play-driving) and hope you get that little extra (increased scoring rate). Francouz obviously rockets to the top if Kuemper gets hurt.

Evan: Kuemper, Kadri, Nichushkin, Burakovsky, Francouz. Kuemper was brought in to be the difference in the postseason, and they’ll need him to win it all.

Jesse: Kuemper/Francouz, Kadri, Burakovsky, Nichuskin. I think this is a great group to have to rank (good job AJ), all of these guys will be key in the Avs’ playoff push. Goaltending is going to be #1, gotta have that. I put Burakovsky over Nichushkin only because you know what you’re getting from Val every single night. Burakovsky is going to need to be an impact player in the playoffs, he can’t have stretches where he disappears, if he can match his level from last playoffs, that might just be too much offense for other teams to contain.

No question here, just give one thought about the first half of the Avalanche season.

AJ: This many All-Star caliber seasons. Multiple players in conversations for major awards. Superstars dotting the lineup. Young players delivering on vast promise. Determined team still smarting from crushing disappointment in the postseason last year. Feels like a team on a mission. Feels familiar.
Evan: The last time the Avs lost at home was the last game I sat in the press box at Ball Arena. Therefore, I don’t think I’m allowed back into that press box until they lose because this winning streak is just wild.

Jesse: This team is impressive. I’m not going to say “it feels different this year”, because there’s so much “year” left to be played. What I will say is, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an Avalanche team that is this complete. It’s an incredibly fun mix of skill, smarts, toughness, youth, and leadership. I’m having a blast watching them play.