Avalanche Roundtable: How good will this Avalanche team be?

Oh, hi!

It’s been a while since we rolled out a roundtable and it seemed like the beginning of the Avalanche season was a pretty good time to do it. There are lots of angles to cover for this year’s team and we’ve done a lot of that already in the preseason but now it’s time to talk predominantly about the big picture.

Let’s see how the staff feels about the upcoming season.

Fun one to start. Who scores the first Avalanche goal of the season?

AJ: Valeri Nichushkin. He looked incredible in the preseason and I think he’s going to find a completely new level this season. I’m all in on the team’s bet that Nichushkin is for real and will continue his upward trajectory. It would be even better if it was a pretty goal, the kind he usually doesn’t score.

Evan: The Revenge Tour of Sam Girard begins early this year, as I’ve got La Tornade scoring the first goal.

Jesse: To be honest, I like the picks that everyone else has made, but I’m going to go even further off the beaten path. It feels like that first goal of the season always comes off one of the last sticks you would imagine. I’m taking Logan O’Connor, I say that finishing touch comes through a but more this year.

Meghan: It’s going to be Artturi Lehkonen. He likes to get to the dangerous areas of the inside ice and he was already doing it in preseason.

Who has the better sophomore season, Alex Newhook or Bowen Byram?

AJ: I’m plenty high on Newhook, but I think Byram has that “it” factor to be a truly special player in the NHL. Despite Cale Makar and Devon Toews as a bonafide top pairing, I think Byram can slide into a job that sees him play around 20 minutes per night and put up high-end results. I think Newhook will score more points, but Byram’s all-around game will be one of the team’s most important factors of success.

Evan: I will go with Bowen Byram. We’ve already gotten a good glimpse of what Byram can do when he’s truly healthy and comfortable on multiple occasions, whereas we’ve only seen very small flashes from Newhook. The postseason showed Byram is ready to be unleashed and he’s full of confidence, whereas it might take Newhook a minute to get up to speed in that second-line center spot.

Jesse: It’s hard… because the sample size was so limited for Byram that it’s almost hard to judge how big of a “step” he can actually take. For example, I think we could see a bigger improvement from Newhook relative to what he did last year. However, I genuinely think Bowen Byram could be the most impactful defensemen on the Colorado blue line behind Cale Makar (honestly he was already that in the Stanley Cup Final).

So, if it’s who will have the biggest improvement over what we saw last season… I think it’s Newhook. If we’re talking – who will have the biggest over all impact on the team between these two, I think it’s Byram.

Meghan: I’m expecting a big step forward from both, and by individual measure, I think  Alex Newhook takes the biggest leap. By that I mean Newhook’s rookie numbers will pale in comparison to this year’s. Some of that is inevitable through the opportunity of playing alongside the likes of Evan Rodrigues and Val Nichuskin. I think he has a 60-point season in him.

Game 1 of Round 1. Who starts in net for Colorado?

AJ: Marc-Andre Fleury. Kidding! Alexandar Georgiev. Every year the Avs have hopped aboard the goaltender carousel, I’ve been nervous. Something about Georgiev has left me with total peace and calm. I’m buying his stick and think he will be one of the breakout goaltenders of the league this year. Pavel Francouz will continue as a reliable and steady presence behind him, but this is Georgiev’s net for the next few years.

Evan: Alexandar Georgiev. I do think it’s going to take a good chunk of the season for him to get truly comfortable, a lot like Grubauer in his first season in Colorado, but come February he will be the guy who takes control of the net and starts in the postseason.

Jesse: I’ll go against the crowd here. Jared Bednar has said that this will be an open competition in net, whoever is playing the best gets the net. Alexandar Georgiev will get the first look at the start of the season, but I think Pavel Francouz will be nipping at his heels all season. As someone who is a big believer in Francouz’s upside, I’ll say he captures the crease by April.

Meghan: It’s Alexandar Georgiev. It won’t be a demerit of Francouz in any way either. They’ll share starts at points in the regular season and I expect Georgiev to get comfortable playing behind this Avalanche team, especially by spring.

Which Central Division team is best built to give the Avalanche problems?

AJ: I think the Wild are really well-built and they have a superstar in Kirill Kaprizov to match some of Colorado’s high-end skill. Their defense is stout and I love how well-coached that team is. I don’t know how Fleury does there and I’m iffy on their ability to drag out career years from basically their entire top nine forwards again, but the team lacks a major weakness and I think they’ll give the Avs fits.

Evan: I’m not particularly scared of any of them, and this might sound strange given how lopsided the series was, but Nashville. Of all the teams in the Central, they have the best goaltender (when healthy), and the McDonagh and Niederreiter acquisitions both made them better and tougher to play against. The real answer is none of them, but I felt compelled to pick a team.

Jesse: For stuff like this, I always look at how do the teams match up. Not necessarily who is the next-best team. For me, it’s still the St. Louis Blues. I think the Blues took a step back this year, but their play style is built to try and stifle what it is that the Avalanche do well.

Meghan: I’m dreading the head-to-head with Minnesota mostly because I am afraid of the fanbase after this Hockey Capital USA business. I’m kidding, but I do think Minnesota will generally play with a chip on their shoulder after getting edged by St. Louis through six games in the playoffs. Kirill Kaprizov is primed to continue stunting on all of us and Joel Eriksson Ek has another level to his game. They have strong leadership at the blueline and goaltending remains a question mark much as it does for the Avs.

Which trade deadline acquisition from last year best acclimates to life as a full-time Av?

AJ: I tried to think of a reason Josh Manson and Andrew Cogliano could take this from Artturi Lehkonen but the reality is both of those guys should be role players this year while Lehkonen steps into the biggest role of his career. I think he’s equipped for the moment and what he does well is going to mesh wonderfully with Colorado’s strengths and weaknesses at forward.

Evan: Artturi Lehkonen. Nathan MacKinnon has already made it his duty in life to protect Lehkonen at all costs, which means we’re going to see Lehky get a lot of time on 29’s wing. With Rantanen potentially on the other side, at least to start the year, he’s going to shine.

Jesse: I want to say Josh Manson, just because of the jump his game seemed to take after arriving in Denver at the trade deadline, but how do you not say Lehkonen? Everything he does well is emphasized by the Avs and their system. I’m really excited to see what he does with a full season in an Avs uniform.

Meghan: Artturi Lehkonen is a great answer because he is such a natural fit. Josh Manson is an honorable mention because I think we see his game transform the most between the two. With Lehkonen it’s an inherent stylistic compatibility: the speed and try-hard ability. For Manson, the way he traditionally played defense is celebrated with added room to lean into the offensive side of his game.

Time for your bold Avalanche take of the year.

AJ: A combination of factors leads to Alex Newhook not only doing an adequate job replacing Nazem Kadri, but I’ve got Newhook actually outscoring Kadri this season. Meghan mentioned above the possibility of Newhook hitting 60 points and that’s the high-water mark I have for him, too. Without the explosiveness of the Avalanche defense and aggressive style surrounding him, I think Kadri reverts to the 50-ish point player he has been the majority of his career, in part thanks to the more conservative system Flames coach Darryl Sutter runs.

Evan: Artturi Lehkonen scores 30 goals stapled next to MacKinnon most of the year. I’m all in on the Lehkonen hype.

Jesse: I mean, I think my bold prediction came earlier when I said Francouz takes the starting job by the time the postseason rolls around, but you know me, I’m always up for a good hot take. I’ll say Val Nichushkin scores 30+ goals. He has gotten better every time he has stepped on the ice in an Avalanche uniform, and I think his offense takes another big step forward now with that nice new contract.

Meghan: We’re getting an unexpected call-up opportunity by Christmas – unexpected meaning it won’t be Jayson Megna or Jacob MacDonald. It will be someone we haven’t seen play in an Avs regular season game like Charles Hudon (less bold) or Shane Bowers or Oskar Olausson (more fun).