Avalanche Roundtable: Draft Day

 

It’s finally draft day. We’ve covered 100 prospects here at BSN Denver, had multiple features highlighting players the Avalanche may consider down the road, and even had three separate mock drafts. Today, the goal was simple. We sat down as a staff and after all the hours of pouring of prospect film and debating the merits of the players finally answered the simple questions.

If the Avs keep the 10th pick, who is the one player you want to see them draft the most and why?

Austin: Give me Lawson Crouse at tenth overall, and I’ll be a happy camper. The thought of being able to combine the speed game of Duchene and MacKinnon with the power game of Landeskog and Crouse gives me the tingles.

Crouse has his production concerns but I’m not worried at all. Put on the tape of this kid, and you’ll see a force on the entire ice surface, every single shift. You can find plenty of power wingers who didn’t have elite production in juniors during their draft year, but turned into dominant NHL players. Jarome Iginla is an example that comes to mind. Iginla averaged 0.99 points-per-game as a 17-year old with the Kamloops Blazers, while Crouse averaged 0.91 ppg as a 17-year old with the Kingston Frontenacs.

Of course, we all know the career that Iginla has gone on to have, and it would be unfair to pin those expectations on Crouse. That said, if I were a betting man, I’d put money on Crouse being called the best power forward in the NHL at some point over his NHL career. If the Avalanche take him, I’d prefer they give him another season in juniors to really hone his offensive skills and confidence. It certainly worked for Iginla, who scored 63 goals and 136 points in 63 games for the Blazers the year after he was drafted.

Cole: It’s hard to argue against Austin’s stance on Crouse and I don’t care to. Crouse has serious talent and smarts wrapped up in an NHL-ready body. The power winger did a lot of heavy lifting in Kingston without much support from his team, and showed well at the World Junior Championship when he was finally surrounded by more talent.

Most years I believe Lawson Crouse would be a Top 5 selection but because of the extraordinary depth of this draft and some of the very flashy talent available, he’s fallen a bit on some scouts lists. I still think it’s a reach to believe that Crouse will fall all the way to 10th overall, but if he’s there the Avalanche should sprint to the podium to select their new power winger.

Casey: In my eyes it’s unlikely Crouse falls that far, but Cole and Austin make a solid case. He’s the type of player that will make a huge impact on this Avalanche team sooner rather than later. Provided Crouse is not available–and if the rumors pan out that the Columbus Blue Jackets are looking to trade up–then I would also be happy with the Avs acquiring Zach Werenski.

Werenski is favored to go to the Blue Jackets if they keep their eighth overall pick, but there’s a lot of talk that they’ll try to trade up. If that happens, Werenski would be a great pick for the Avs. He’s a smooth-as-butter left handed defender with powerplay quarterback capability. He could chew up a lot of minutes for the Avs, and as AJ said in his profile of the young defender, he could “play Robin to Erik Johnson’s Batman.”

Andi: Sticking with the Batman theme, Pavel Zacha’s game brings so many tools that he’s this draft’s equivalent of the caped crusader. Of the prospects mentioned so far, he has the highest likelihood of sticking around until 10th Overall, plus he brings a great shot, decent defense, and some physical play.

But more importantly, his passing and vision are there. Those are two areas the Avs – forwards included – struggle with, particularly when it comes to transitioning.  Also, if you look at the players Matt Duchene has found chemistry with in the past, there are some common attributes, such as good passing, smart reads away from the puck, and a decent shot.  I see a lot of those aspects in Zacha’s game, and that’s on top of the fact that he just plays fast, fun hockey.

There are questions about him, including his small sample size of a season, but I think he’d thrive and possibly excel in the Avs’ system. While it’d be great if the Avs could draft a defenseman with #10, Zacha makes a lot of sense for the team as their top forward prospect.

In regards to moving the 10th pick, the Avalanche have been connected throughout the league as a team interested in either trading up, trading down, or trading out of the first round entirely in exchange for an NHL defenseman. Of these options, which one would you prefer the Avs to do?

Austin: I’m pretty comfortable sitting at 10th overall, but have also made it known that I have a lot of love for Evgeny Svechnikov’s game. If a scenario presented itself where the Avalanche could move back a few picks, grab Svechnikov, and come away with an additional asset such as a 2nd-round pick, I’d be all for it.

Using the 10th pick as a trade-chip to grab a top-four defenseman straight up would also be a pretty logical move for the Avalanche to make as well, depending on the Ryan O’Reilly situation. There are so many variables in play, it’s tough to really say I prefer an option. I think the best stance is keeping all options open, which is totally a politician’s answer, I know.

Cole: Because of the extremely deep Top 10 in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, it seems like teams are more willing than ever to move back a few slots if it means acquiring an extra asset. I think the Avalanche should do the exact opposite tomorrow night, and aggressively look into moving up in the draft queue in order to draft defenseman Ivan Provorov. I truly believe Provorov will be one of the best players to come out of this draft class, and as a big-minute left handed defenseman he’s a perfect fit for the Avalanche’s greatest area of need.

There are three top tier defensemen in this draft and with Noah Hanifin a near-lock for the Top 5, and Columbus sure to select a defenseman at 8th overall, the Avs might not have a chance to grab one of these highly touted blueliners. If Ivan Provorov is available when New Jersey or Philadelphia pick 6th and 7th, the Avs should aggressively pursue the opportunity to leapfrog over Columbus and take the Russian defenseman.

Casey: I don’t want to see the Avs trade down unless they can secure a monumental return from a team like the Buffalo Sabres, whose second first-round pick is still 21st overall. Anything less than a top-four defender with NHL experience in some sort of package deal (speculated to contain Ryan O’Reilly, of course) would not be worth it. The type of player they can acquire by trading up, as Cole says above, is too valuable to trade down unless they get immediate NHL-ready talent in return.

I’d be happy with the Avs trading up or staying at 10th overall.

Andi: I’m also content with 10th Overall, but I do think there is quite a bit of value in trying to move up. With O’Reilly in play, I almost wonder if the Avs could find their way into the Top 5 of this draft and make a play for Noah Hanifin. It would mean putting a lot of faith and two (or more) substantial assets into an 18-year-old blueliner, but if it worked out, it could have a huge impact on the fortunes of this franchise.

Unfortunately, it takes two to tango. I’m not sure many of the teams ahead of us would be willing to trade down for a price that makes sense. Are Arizona, Toronto, or Carolina smitten enough with O’Reilly to move down a few spots? I don’t know. But I do hope Sakic is at least kicking some tires to see what might be available.

-Beyond but not excluding the 10th pick, what would you like to see the Avalanche accomplish this weekend in the draft?

Austin:  I have two things I’m hoping the Avalanche will look to accomplish this weekend. The first is shoring up their prospect depth at the forward position, especially on the wing. Big, fast, skilled wingers seem to be on the agenda, and I’d like to see the Avalanche come away with three or four players who fit that profile.

Cody Nickolet did a great job highlighting forward targets for the Avalanche round-by-round over on his Dub From Above blog earlier this week. Keegan Kolesar is one guy I think the Avalanche should draft in the third or fourth round.

The second is exploring a way to bring a young top-four defenseman on board. I’m all for going the UFA route, but I think the Avalanche need to be creative to really solidify their blueline, even if it costs future assets. Adding a guy like Patrick Wiercioch from Ottawa would really accelerate the blue-line rebuild, and at 24 years old, his age would align nicely with the Avalanche’s core players.

If an O’Reilly trade is going to happen, the draft is the time to do it, as it’s when O’Reilly’s value will be highest. Joe Sakic should make sure every GM in the NHL is as tired of hearing about Ryan O’Reilly as most Avalanche fans are. I’d prefer O’Reilly to be signed with the Avalanche, and am wary of trading him, but it’s certainly possible he could bring in a package that includes a stud defenseman.

As I’m typing this, the Avalanche have acquired Carl Soderberg, which I think ups the pressure to try and resolve the O’Reilly situation at the draft. Looking more and more like an O’Reilly trade is on the horizon.

Cole: On the draft front I’d like to see the Avalanche prioritize talent over two-way play in their early round picks. Last year the Avalanche opted for a “safe” two-way forward in Conner Bleackley, and while he still looks like he should make a solid transition to the NHL, it’s very clear that the Avs left some high end offensive talent on the draft board.

The Avs’ forward prospect pool is devoid of top six talent so the Avalanche should make sure that they use their 40th overall selection on a player with extremely high upside, even if that player comes with more perceived risks. The Avalanche are nearing a world without Alex Tanguay and Jarome Iginla in it, and when that happens they’ll need new, cheap, young wingers to replace them. For that reason the Avalanche are better off drafting a riskier forward with true top six potential than they are a safer, responsible player with a higher floor and lower ceiling.

On the business front, the most important thing the Avalanche can do is stay flexible, and not back themselves into any corners. Whether it’s a Carl Soderberg signing, a Ryan O’Reilly trade, or something else all-together on the draft floor, the Avalanche must be extremely wary of aging players and bad contracts. The closer the Avalanche get to the salary cap the more glaring Brad Stuart’s albatross of a contract becomes.

Over-committing money and term to players like Nick Holden (who’s extension doesn’t start for another week) and Cody McLeod aren’t extremely costly mistakes, but they add up quickly and give the Avalanche less cap and contract room to pursue higher quality impact players.

Casey: I want to see the Avalanche focus on talented forwards with high ceilings, wingers in particular. It’s a shame Paul Bittner is likely to go early in the second round, because he’s the type of second-rounder I’d love to see the Avs acquire.

I also have loved what I’ve seen of centerman Jack Roslovic, who really shined on the USA U18s this season. He’s well-rounded, has few gaps in his game, and plays with a competitive edge that’s fun to watch.

In later rounds, I’ve talked up my fondness for Nikolai Chebykin, Samuel Dove-McFalls, and Yegor Rykov as well. They’re projected to go most likely in the fourth (Rykov) to sixth (Dove-McFalls, Chebykin) rounds and each of them is the type of player that I could see deepening the Avalanche’s forward pool substantially.

Rykov and Chebykin are among my favorite Russian skaters in the later rounds of this year’s draft. Rykov in particular: he’s a big-bodied defender with a howitzer of a left-handed shot and leadership experience. He’d be a great pick in round four.

Andi: While I agree that the Avs really need to work on stocking the top 6 forward cupboard this draft, I also hope they don’t forget to snag a blueliner or two. Beyond Stefan Elliott – who may or may not even be back next year – the Avs are very short on right handed shots.  Yes, Johnson and Barrie are hopefully going to hold down that side for a very long time, but it’s smart to invest in a late-round potential backup plan as well.

Besides, with the glut of lefties in the system, the Avs AHL team will be desperate for some righties within the next couple years.