Avalanche Roundtable: Are the Avalanche a playoff team?

Avalanche opening night is upon us. Why are the Colorado Avalanche not a playoff team this season?

Casey: The first thing that leaps to mind, honestly? The quality of their competition. The Avalanche’s roster is improved. They’ve got a shiny new coach. But it’s still an uphill battle in the West unless someone else underperforms.

J.D.: The two most likely options for the Avalanche not making the playoffs – either a rash of injuries to key players or the tough level of competition among the Central Division teams. They have very little control over either of those.

Andi:  While I agree that competition and injuries – not to mention a rough schedule to start the year and a rookie head coach – are the biggest hurdles, if the Avs miss the playoffs, the blame will most likely lie with the Avs’ top forwards.  Last year, they weren’t good enough to carry the team.  Yes, possession and a host of other factors came into play, but at the end of the day, goals win games.  If the top six don’t produce, the Avs won’t play past mid April.

Cole: While the Central Division took some serious hits to its quality this summer, it’s still the hardest division in hockey and the Avalanche have a steep hill to climb if they want to make it to the postseason. For the first time in years, the reason they won’t make it there has nothing to do with the team’s defensive group and everything to do with their paper thin group of NHL wingers. The Avs are just an injury away from players like Rene Bourque and Blake Comeau playing top six roles on the team, and no step forward from Nathan MacKinnon will be big enough to offset that lack of depth.

On the other side of the coin, why are the Avalanche making the playoffs?

Casey: Well, their roster has improved and they have a shiny new coach. But in all seriousness, the improvements made to the bottom six are impressive. The evident growth of Grigorenko and Zadorov shown in camp and the preseason is another factor. The Avalanche don’t have to lean on 23 minutes of ice time a night from Nick Holden anymore, either. The team has improved in a lot of little ways.

J.D.: The Avalanche look to have a quality system with a sound structure, their defensive strategy appears much improved, and they seem to be adapting the team tactics to utilize the players’ skill sets. The new defensive pairings should help. The leaps Nathan MacKinnon and Matt Duchene appear to have made, Mikhail Grigorenko’s improved play, and the addition of Mikko Rantanen should bring more exciting goal scoring to the offense. So the future looks bright. Of course, I think I said that last year, so hope springs eternal at the start of the season.

Andi:  In my opinion, the biggest x-factor here is Bednar.  The Avs traditionally do very well under new coaches, and in the preseason games and practices, it’s easy to see that excitement is high.  Bednar’s systems push the pace and channel that excitement into speed and intensity  and his attention to details should clean up much of the sloppiness that’s cost the team points in the past.

The Avs have the talent to be, at the very least, a slightly above average club in the NHL.  Moving on from Roy’s very passive systems and getting back to the basics of pass support and a strong forecheck should help this subtly improved roster rocket up the standings.

Cole: The Avalanche have quietly built the best group of defenseman that they’ve had since the 2004-2005 lockout, and with Nikita Zadorov, a rejuvenated Patrick Wiercioch and the potential addition of Chris Bigras later in the season, it’s a group that figures to improve as the season wears on. The Avs’ blueline group is mobile, dynamic, and creative, and should contribute plenty on the offensive side of the puck. The entire blueline is capable of scoring 20 or more points, and the new uptempo breakout introduced by Jared Bednar is going to give them the opportunity to take this group’s tools and exploit them.

Keeping it simple, give us your basic Avs predictions. Top point scorer, top goal scorer, breakout player, disappointment, and bold prediction.

J.D.: MacKinnon as top point scorer, Duchene with top goal scorer, Nikita Zadorov as breakout player, Colborne as disappointment, and my bold prediction is they advance to the second round of the playoffs. Bonus guess – Rantanen makes a run at the Calder for Rookie of the Year.

Andi:  I agree with JD about MacKinnon and Duchene, and Zadorov and Grigorenko are my picks for breakouts.  Unfortunately, I expect Iginla and Beauchemin’s age to catch up with them, leading to disappointing years.  And as for bold predictions… I’m swinging for this Bridich Barrier I keep hearing about with this one:  I predict that the Avs will win the ‘16-17 Central Division.

Cole: Given a healthy season, Nathan MacKinnon will be the Avalanche’s top point and goal scorer. My choice for breakout player of the year is Patrick Wiercioch. The big, possession positive defenseman lost the confidence of his coaching staff in Ottawa but with a new mandate from the Avalanche, he’s going to work his way into larger, more regular minutes as the season continues.

The biggest disappointment on the team will be Fedor Tyutin who, although he’s surrounded by low expectations to begin with, looks as though the wheels have already fallen off in preseason. My bold prediction: Jarome Iginla will have a minor resurgence under Jared Bednar, defy father time, and score more than 25 goals.