Avalanche Draft Day Rumor Round-Up

The first day of the NHL Draft is finally upon us. Thank whatever deity you believe in, too, because I am completely sick of this draft class. I can only imagine how the scouts who exclusively cover prospects every year feel about this class.

Now that we’re here, though, the offseason is in full swing. That means it’s time for the rumor mill to kick up and get going in full swing.

I’ll tell you from my perspective that this has been the strangest offseason I’ve covered. There was no end-of-season presser from Sakic after the Avs were eliminated, there was no drama over a potential coaching change, and the team doesn’t have a top-10 pick as they did in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019.

Where things are interesting is the $22.3 million in cap space the team is estimated to have right now.

It’s a deceptively large number, however, because of the RFAs on hand that need to be re-signed. Not only that, but Cale Makar’s contract is sneaky costly for the Avs this year. While he only counts $880K against the salary cap, his contract carries up to $2.5M in performance bonuses that are attainable.

The Avs could always spend to the cap anyway but if Makar hits those bonuses, the Avs will be charged with an overage and the $2.5M (Or however many of them he hits) will carry into next season. It’s smarter money for the Avs to bake that money into this year’s cap than take the chance on it burning them next year so, functionally, the Avs actually are sitting on around $19.8M in cap space.

So let’s talk about how they might spend that.

The Avs extended qualifying offers to all of their RFAs already so Wednesday’s deadline doesn’t come with a lot of drama surrounding it. Vladislav Kamenev has already left for Russia but the team is expected to extend him a QO as well to retain his rights.

The guys who are going to cost real money, however, are Val Nichushkin, Tyson Jost, Nikita Zadorov, Ryan Graves, and Andre Burakovsky.

Adding up all the raises these guys will justifiably receive after decent years from all of them, you can project it to cost in the neighborhood of about $15M. That leaves the Avs with right around $4M to play with.

Enter the trade market.

Trades can be fun when you don’t worry about the toll it takes on players and their families as they scramble to uproot their lives and change cities on the fly. We won’t worry about that since there’s nothing we can really do about the reality of the business.

Instead, it’s trade season in the NHL. Boy, is it ever.

Because Colorado isn’t actually walking around with All The Cash to work with, the trade market is more likely where their action is to come from.

The Avalanche have been very active in this market but I want to start where I haven’t heard any action from Colorado.

Vegas is reportedly willing to package a 2nd round pick and retain half of Marc-Andre Fleury’s salary to move him elsewhere. While I personally don’t have any issue with Colorado’s current tandem, buying a 2nd round pick and then only having to pay Fleury $3.5M for the next two years is very intriguing. I would try to find a way into those conversations.

Vegas also has one year of Paul Stastny left at $6.5M and has both Cody Glass and Peyton Krebs as centers of the future. Stastny certainly isn’t what he used to be but he’s still a useful center. I can’t help but wonder if the Avs might have an interest in bringing him back to Denver at a reduced rate. This is more me spitballing than anything I’ve actually heard, though.

What I have heard is that Colorado has actively shopped the 25th pick and has not really found much traction there. Teams around them have also looked at moving out as the talent difference between pick 25 and 55 may not be very large this year so it’s a less valuable place to be sitting in than previous years.

Because of that, look for the Avs to sit tight at 25 tonight and simply select a player they like. If there’s a trade back scenario, they will absolutely look into it as they like the idea of adding extra picks but it takes two to tango and trading up to their spot only makes sense for a small number of clubs. Things would really have to go a certain way for that to happen. Expect them to make the pick.

As for who they might pick, there are honestly 15 names I could drop and they’d all fit depending on how the draft unfolded tonight. None of them would surprise you. While team lists and public draft lists always vary, they usually aren’t too far off. The reality is we just have to see how things begin to unfold before that list really starts to come into focus.

It’s not a Colorado rumor but I’ve heard a ton of noise about Calgary wanting Kamloops forward Connor Zary at 19. It’s a fit that makes sense but the Avs also love them some Zary so that would be a minor disappointment.

One name that continues to be dangled in trade talks that Colorado has consistently engaged in is Kris Letang. The Penguins just bought out Jack Johnson so they might be done tinkering with their defense for the time being but Letang’s hefty salary and injury-riddled career make an intriguing proposition for other clubs.

Letang has struggled to stay healthy but when he is, he is still a very effective play driver and a guy who can really turn up the offense. He’s also drowning in the kind of playoff experience that teams absolutely love. He’s not as good defensively and that makes his fit in Colorado iffy at best but the Avs have shown an affinity for ignoring what they have and going after good puck movers in the past (keep in mind how close they came to bringing Kevin Shattenkirk back in free agency a couple years ago).

The team also expressed interest in Torey Krug but I’m told that didn’t get very far. I would be surprised to see that one revisited as Krug has not been shy about his desire to get paid both a high-dollar amount and for a lengthy number of years.

A name to watch is out in New Jersey, where contract extension talks with Kyle Palmieri have not born fruit yet. Palmieri makes sense for the Avs because they probably need one more top-six forward to really be set there and Palmieri is only signed for one year so the commitment isn’t major. New Jersey is also still rebuilding so recouping assets for Palmieri would honestly make more sense than paying to extend him into his 30s as they have three first round picks this year that can really reshape the future of their roster.

Former New Jersey forward Taylor Hall will get attention from the Avs but they simply cannot go long-term on any deal with him. Not only that, but we’ve talked about their cash restrictions here. They could absolutely make $8M work for next year and maybe the year after but beyond that they simply won’t have the space for it. Does that interest Hall? Only he knows. The Avalanche will certainly make the call but the ball is entirely in Hall’s court on this.

I mentioned it on Twitter the other day but the Avs do have an eye for Anton Forsberg, who could come in and be the third goaltender they twice traded for last year when they ignored the position all summer. Forsberg is set to hit the free agent market on Friday. It would not be a surprise to see Colorado use their old CBJ pipeline once more for Forsberg.

Speaking of Columbus, the Josh Anderson conversation remains interesting. The Blue Jackets are taking a lot of calls on him but haven’t found anything they like yet. Anderson’s name was heavily involved during the Matt Duchene trade talks and we know how the Avs like the players they like and will wait for multiple opportunities to get them. Anderson’s goal-scoring ability and physicality would be a very welcome combination in Colorado’s forward lineup.

As far as players on the outs, Nikita Zadorov and Tyson Jost remain the obvious candidates to move. Depending on what Colorado decides to do with them, they could add extra picks that way (not the desired result) and use the saved money to play around in free agency a little more aggressively.

I think they’re more interested in “hockey trades”, however, where they move NHL talent out for NHL talent in. This is as flooded as the trade market has ever been, however, so finding the right combination of improvement, fit, and value will be a tough needle to thread.

One of the easier situations for them would appear to be contract talks with Gabe Landeskog. While nothing substantial has taken place yet, I don’t think anybody is expecting a contentious or prolonged contract battle here. Landeskog wants to be in Colorado and the Avalanche want him to remain their captain.

The real sticking point here with the talks is how each side approaches the discussion. Pre-COVID contracts almost always had the assumption of a rising salary cap baked in. With Anders Lee and Chris Kreider as likely contract comparables ($7M and $6.5M, respectively), it will be interesting to see how each side decides to approach this. Landeskog is not coming off a great statistical season following his career year two seasons ago so the price won’t be taking the leap that looked possible 12 months ago.

I’m not sure where it ends up but I would expect these two sides to seriously engage in discussions following this week’s events and hammer out a deal before the start of next season, whenever that is.

The other contract negotiation people are interested in is that of Makar’s. The Avs would love to do something today. Makar’s side, however, is showing a little more patience. It’s just smart business for Makar to wait. His contract expires at the same time as three other franchise defensemen around the league – Miro Heiskanen, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin.

Much as we saw last summer with the glut of RFA forwards, it will take time to sort that market out, especially because all four players have strong arguments to be paid more than Thomas Chabot’s 8×8 contract, which is currently the highest second contract for defensemen.

Those four players are going to completely reset that market and be in a class of their own. It would be downright foolish business for any of them to sign this offseason. That said, anything is possible but I’ll temper Avs’ fans expectations right now. I would sooner expect this to be a training camp holdout in the fall of 2021 than for this to be decided this offseason.

As far as the RFA contracts, all of the big names are arbitration eligible and the Avalanche have aggressively used that tool to ensure these contract stalemates are avoided. Look for that to continue as they work through the conversations about signing any of them to long-term contracts or just bridge them. Burakovsky would be the likeliest player to receive a long-term deal for now. The Avs love him.

That’s it for now. We’ll see you after the draft show tonight when we breakdown what happened not only for Colorado but the rest of the league!