Avalanche double down on identity with Girard extension

Few things made me roll my eyes quite like listening to the NBC broadcast crew refer to the San Jose Sharks neutral zone set up as a “teal-picket fence” during their playoff series against the Avalanche.

It was the kind of hokey nonsense broadcasts throw at you in order to appeal to a more casual audience and watching the Avalanche find success against their cleverly nicknamed basic neutral zone trap seemed to be maddening for everyone involved, the Avs included.

As Colorado headed into the offseason following their Game 7 loss, Colorado knew it needed to get a little tougher to play against because their speed game just wasn’t quite enough to get them over the hump.

Enter Nazem Kadri, Pierre-Eduoard Bellemare, and increased depth among the forward corps as a whole (including former Shark Joonas Donskoi) and it’s obvious to everyone paying attention the Avalanche accomplished that goal.

Then came today’s news that Sam Girard had signed a seven-year extension worth $35 million.

Let’s start with the money.

There aren’t many comparables for the 21-year-old Girard because very few defensemen play in the NHL in their teens but it looks like the Avalanche used Noah Hanifin as their benchmark here.

Hanifin signed his current six-year, $29.7 million contract after his third season whereas Girard has only completed two years but both players were entering their age 21 seasons at the time of signing.

Through two years, Hanifin scored 51 points in 160 games played. Girard’s first two years saw him score 50 points in 155 games so the numbers are there to see how the Avalanche arrived at the cap hit.

In the world of inflation and a constantly-changing cap ceiling, cap percentage is also a big informer on how similar contracts are at the time of signing. For Hanifin, it was 6.23% of the cap when he signed. Girard? 6.14%.

AND the Avalanche got a seven-year deal a year before Girard’s entry-level contract is set to expire, meaning the Avalanche and Girard are tied together until Girard is now set to become a free agent at 29-years-old after the 2027 season.

Heck, the Avs even essentially copied the trade protection in Hanifin’s contract. Hanifin has an eight-team no-trade list the final two years of his deal, Girard a nine-team no-trade list in the final three years.

The play here for the Avalanche is that Girard is already pretty good. There are holes in his game that need developing and he’ll have to continue to find ways to overcome his lack of size but if he’s successful, this contract could be a steal by even its second year.

That timing is extremely important.

Colorado is facing a major leap in its salary commitments to players in the coming years. Mikko Rantanen’s new contract is still unknown and he could be up for another contract soon if he decides to go the bridge route this year.

By the aforementioned second year of Girard’s new contract, Colorado will have given out new contracts to Rantanen, Gabe Landeskog, Cale Makar, and Philipp Grubauer. Big raises could also be on the way for Tyson Jost and Andre Burakovsky if they live up to their potential.

That makes Colorado getting Girard under contract for just five million per season a great piece of business. While it may lack the ultimate savings of Nathan MacKinnon’s current contract, Girard will be no less than a top-three defenseman for the Avalanche through the life of this contract.

With Makar looking like a potential superstar and Bowen Byram drafted fourth overall last month, the savings here could pay the kind of dividends Nashville has enjoyed with Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm, and Roman Josi over the years.

All of this is to state what should be obvious: this is an excellent contract that overpays Girard just a touch today based on his offensive output but banks on him becoming a regular 30-40 point producer throughout his 20’s. It’s going to age wonderfully, especially with another round of expansion and the likelihood of several more significant salary cap jumps expected to take place in the next eight years.

Ah, that expansion draft. What does it mean for Girard?

Almost nothing.

Colorado was already going to have to protect him and they definitely will when Seattle comes looking to poach one of Colorado’s defenders. Currently, the likeliest protections would appear to be Girard, Cale Makar, and Erik Johnson (though that’s a more complicated situation with a lot of caveats).

Regardless, Girard isn’t going anywhere. And that’s exactly what Colorado general manager Joe Sakic was after.

Girard exemplifies everything the modern-day NHL defenseman needs to be: great skater, great puck-mover, and extremely smart.

He’s a one-man breakout when he gets the puck in the defensive zone and he’s consistently able to navigate typical silliness like a “teal-picketed fence” and pick it apart to create offense.

The points certainly haven’t been there but he’ll get a look at significantly more power-play opportunities with Tyson Barrie now in Toronto.

Of his 1,300 minutes at 5v5, about 550 of them were spent with the top line. Given how top-heavy Colorado was last year, any improvement in depth scoring should mean a real jump in scoring for Girard, too.

Girard’s style is a picture-perfect fit for Colorado’s identity and even if he only makes incremental improvements from here (unlikely but possible), he’ll easily be worth the money by the time he reaches his mid-20’s.

That Colorado now has him until he’s 29 is an incredible value play by Sakic and the Avalanche.

With Girard now locked up and Makar set to begin his NHL career in full, Colorado’s “Turn and Burn” pairing is prepared to lead them into a new era of glory days. That’s music to the ears of Avalanche fans everywhere.

Hey, DJ. Spin that.