Analyzing which players are being over and underrated in the NHL Draft

With the calendar flipped over to June, we’re in the home stretch now in the run-up to the NHL Draft in Vancouver. The combine was completed over the weekend and with that, all of the major events of the draft season are now in the rearview mirror.

As the dust is settling from the action over the weekend, there’s been a lot of movement and players are starting to settle into some draft ranges. With that, let’s take a look at which of these players are experiencing a little undeserved helium and which guys might be getting randomly overlooked here.

Overrated

Trevor Zegras – C/W, USNTDP (USHL)

Zegras has worked his way into the conversation for the third pick by the Chicago Blackhawks and hoo boy is that rich. His talent is obvious and as a guy with good size and a ton of room to continue filling out, it’s easy to believe he’ll get even better when he matures physically and gets harder to know off pucks.

His play has been largely on the perimeter, though, and because of the talent on his team, he didn’t get very comfortable at one position as he moved all around. Versatility is nice but if he’s going to be center, you’d like for him to get the defensive reps there. Instead, he’s much more developed defensively on the wing instead of center, making his likely transition back to the pivot in college something to keep an eye on. He’s a good prospect but top three? Boy, I don’t know.

Cole Caufield – W, USNTDP (USHL)

Caufield was always going to be a lightning rod in this draft class but a draft season in which he scored 72 goals despite being just 5’7″ guaranteed he was going to be one of the draft’s most talked about players. All of that has held true and his explosive performance at the U-18’s in which he scored 14 goals seemed to kickstart the hype train into overdrive. A good combine performance enhanced that even more.

So why is he overrated? Because he spent the last couple of years taking sublime feeds from the next generation of great playmakers. His shot is an elite trait and there’s no denying that. His size is obviously going to be a question but with the NHL getting smaller and smaller, it’s nowhere near the concern it would have been even five years ago. And yet, a player’s all-around game matters. Caufield is going to score goals but he’s not a guy that’s been great at creating for himself and while he’s a good skater, I don’t think he’s as special a skater as he’s going to need to be in the NHL.

This kid is a player…but the idea of him going to LA at five seems crazy to me. To be honest, a guy this one-dimensional even breaking the top 10 would surprise me but all it takes is one team to fall in love. Goal scoring is hard and nobody did it better than this kid but in a forward-heavy draft class, I just can’t see giving the nod to him in the top 10.

Bobby Brink – W, Sioux City (USHL)

Brink had a great season and that goal-scoring is going to translate. He’s being projected to go in the mid-first right now and after measuring in at just 5’8″ over the weekend, I think more than ever that he’s more of a second-round prospect. I was already iffy on his skating and not sold on his ability to play away from the puck but coming in that small with the skating question marks I have on him really makes me down on his prospects.

The league might be transitioning to smaller players being fine but it’s happening because those smaller players are blazing skaters who push the pace. Brink isn’t that guy. Any team going all-in on him halfway through the first round is taking a major risk.

Philip Broberg – D, AIK (Allsvenskan)

Great size, elite skating ability, and good performances internationally. What’s not to love? Well, a lot, actually. Broberg is certainly a fantastic skater and one of the best on the blue line this year but his tools beyond that really appear limited to me. I don’t mind one-dimensional defensemen if they’re truly elite at what they do well but “skating fast” just isn’t enough. His play with the puck can be very uneven and even when he’s rushing the puck up the ice, he looks unsure of what he really wants to do once he enters the offensive zone. He’s just too limited a player for my liking and when he gets drafted somewhere in the top 15, I think that team is taking a huge chance.

Underrated

Trevor Zegras again

Surprise! This one really depends on how you feel about him. The opinions seem extreme on both sides, where those who love him think he’s legitimately a top-five prospect and the dissenting voices think he should tumble out of the top ten entirely. That’s a lot of variance for a kid who has all the measurables, production, and talent you look for in a high-end prospect.

There are very real questions about his ability to translate his game to tougher levels of competition as he got away with playing a certain way with the puck that won’t fly against better opponents. He does, however, play with a real edge in his game and his agitation at not having the puck will serve him well defensively. If he’s able to develop more of his defense at center, he could be a very high-end pro. If he doesn’t adapt, he could find himself struggling the same way Casey Mittelstadt has so far in Buffalo.

No player better personifies “beauty is in the eye of the beholder” in this draft class like Zegras. He’s either a frontline player who is destined for stardom or a player destined to set some team’s future plans back five years.

Vasili Podkolzin, W, Russia

I say “Russia” instead of a league because Podkolzin spent time in three different Russian leagues this season. That, combined with an underwhelming performance in the U-18s in his last chance to show out against his peer group has some wondering if Podkolzin might be dropping out of the top 15. Given the very real Russian bias that exists throughout the NHL, you know there are organizations drafting in the top half that simply won’t take him.

This kid is a legit stud prospect and it seems that keeps being forgotten with the Americans pushing up and everyone getting caught up in Podkolzin’s contract status. There really isn’t a major difference between Podkolzin spending two years in Russia and any of the Americans spending two years in NCAA or the WHL kids spending two years there because they can’t go play AHL. It’s just an overblown concept. Come draft day, I’d still be really surprised if Podkolzin fell out of the top 10. He’s just too talented for that many teams to talk themselves out of him.

Cam York, D, USNTDP (USHL)

Pretty much everyone seems to agree York is a good prospect who fits in with the way the NHL is evolving. He was wildly productive on a stacked team, though, and while that seems to be pushing up several of the forwards, it very much feels like York is getting lost in the shuffle a little bit. He’s a good prospect and I can’t help but see a young Kevin Shattenkirk when I watch him.

His puck distribution is at a high level and he whips tape-to-tape passes around the ice with ease. His defensive game isn’t going to wow you and it’s predictably a work in progress but that’s the theme of the top of this year’s defensive class. None of these guys in the conversation are advanced defenders in their own zones and the main selling point on all of them (except maybe Soderstrom, who feels like the only real two-way guy) is offensive upside. York is a guy that would not be out of place in the top 10 but seems like he could be in for a Ty Smith-like slide. He’s a player.