An upset may be unlikely but here's why a competitive showing against No. 5 Iowa could set the foundation for the rest of the season

DENVER — Following last Saturday’s upset of Toledo, Colorado State will face No. 5 Iowa on the road in what will be the first-ever matchup between the two programs. 

Currently listed as 22 point underdogs to the Big Ten-leading Hawkeyes, there isn’t a lot of confidence in the Green & Gold on a national level, which is unsurprising after Iowa’s hot start. Through three games Iowa already has a pair of wins over ranked opponents, including a fairly dominant 27-17 victory over No. 9 Iowa State in their house in Week 2.

Despite having all the odds stacked against them, though, Saturday’s game is going to be interesting from CSU’s perspective for a multitude of reasons. First off, beating Toledo was a massive step in the right direction but this Hawkeyes team is a completely different beast. I’m intrigued to see how the Rams follow up the high of an upset victory while playing in an intense power five atmosphere. Do they come out swinging with their backs against the wall and potentially catch Iowa off guard? What about if they go down early? Do the Rams continue to fight, or do they crumble under the pressure? 

How the Rams are able to handle the challenges of going up against an elite team in a hostile environment will tell us a lot about what this group is made of. A 1-2 start was obviously less than ideal. The thing is you can’t change it now, you can only respond. And if CSU can play a competitive game against the Hawkeyes on the road, it could really set the tone before beginning conference play. 

Having spoken to players from the 2013 and 2017 CSU teams that traveled for games against No. 1 Alabama, one of the consistent things that’s been mentioned is that making plays against the Crimson Tide really gave the respective groups confidence. 

After starting 1-2 in 2013, CSU lost to the Crimson Tide 31-6 in a Week 3 game that was genuinely much more competitive than the final score indicates. The Rams were down 11 and had possession early in the fourth quarter but a fumble from Garrett Grayson unfortunately killed their chance to cut it to a single score. Regardless, the Rams went on to finish 7-3 over the final 10 games, including blowouts of Wyoming (52-22) and Air Force (58-13), as well as a thrilling New Mexico Bowl victory over Washington State (48-45). 

CSU was 2-1 going into the 2017 matchup with Alabama, so it wasn’t quite the same circumstance but the Rams managed to score 23 points that evening, the third-most against Nick Saban’s defense all year (41-23). The Rams then followed it up with a 4-0 start against the Mountain West, with three of those victories coming on the road. 

It’s been nearly 20 years since CSU upset a top 10 team (No. 7 Colorado, 2002). So if you’re thinking about betting on the Green & Gold, maybe consider the spread and not the moneyline. But I really do think that even if it ends with a loss — and it very likely will — if CSU can show something on Saturday, it could have an extremely positive impact moving forward. 

With all due respect to the reigning conference champions, San Jose State, their offense has not looked like the same explosive unit that took the title in 2020. With the quality play CSU has gotten from the defensive front seven over the last two weeks, the Rams could really make it a long night for SJSU if they just keep this pressure up. The trips to New Mexico and Utah State both look tougher than they did in the preseason but those are winnable games as well. It all starts with Iowa this week though. It’s time to see what this veteran-led team is made of.