All is well until prime time, analyzing our Week 4 NFL picks

 

Our week couldn’t have started off better with three wins in the day’s games Sunday, though things got tricky on the Sunday and Monday night games. We’ve talked about how the YPP numbers are only now beginning to be reliable and those late games seem to be perfect examples of some adjustments that still need to be made on certain teams.

That’s why we do this; to stay on top of the numbers and see what went right and what didn’t in our Week 4 picks. In spite of it all, we had another winning week with a 3-and-2 record for a grand total of 10-and-5 on the year.

On top of our usual post-week pick analysis, we’ll also take a look at our early Estimated Win spreads and how they compare to Vegas as of Tuesday morning.

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Getting our wins in early

We picked four underdogs in our five picks and two were outright winners; the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons.

The Jaguars started things off with the early win Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts, who continue to be at the very bottom of Net YPP. Unless they’re paired up against another team that’s low in the rankings and are at home, there’s really no reason for the Colts to be favored at all this season, unless we see a big change in play. This game was fairly boring until things got heated in the 4th quarter and Andrew Luck almost pulled the win out of the bag, but ultimately a desperate 0-and-3 Jaguars team persevered getting their first win of the year.

This game was fairly boring until things got heated in the 4th quarter and Andrew Luck almost pulled the win out of the bag, but ultimately a desperate 0-and-3 Jaguars team persevered, getting their first win of the year.

The Falcons were a risky pick to make considering the Carolina Panthers were coming off a tough loss in Week 3 but we believed in the numbers and the Dirty Birds rewarded us for it. This game was rarely, if ever close, with the Falcons passing game thoroughly outmatching the Panthers inexperienced secondary.

A juggernaut on both offense and defense last season, Carolina just doesn’t look the same with major issues on the offensive line and in the defensive backfield. After this loss, Carolina now ranks 21st in YPP differential with a negative figure, completely unexpected for the 6th ranked team by the metric in 2015.

The other pick that worked out for us convincingly was the Denver Broncos covering their 3-point spread in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers. The Broncos won convincingly by 20 points, despite losing  starting quarterback Trevor Siemian to a shoulder injury and being replaced by rookie Paxton Lynch. Lynch fared well, moving the ball and getting 13 points on the board in little over a half of play. Then again when you have a defense that hits the opposing quarterback 16 times and forces three turnovers you really don’t need  much production out of the QB. As long as the defensive play continues, it doesn’t seem to matter who’s behind center in Denver as they remain atop the YPP standings.

Lynch fared well, moving the ball and getting 13 points on the board in little over a half of play. Then again when you have a defense that hits the opposing quarterback 16 times and forces three turnovers you really don’t need  much production out of the QB. As long as the defensive play continues, it doesn’t seem to matter who’s behind center in Denver as they remain atop the YPP standings.

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The numbers fail us in prime time

The differential on both the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants was undeniable in the YPP figures for the week, despite them being underdogs on the road.

The Giants were tied with Denver as the top team in the metric and the Pittsburgh Steelers, playing against KC, were at the very bottom of the rankings going into Week 4. This is a great example of how the early YPP numbers with a limited sample size aren’t 100-percent reliable.

The Steelers are clearly not as bad as their NetYPP numbers suggested after a very tough loss Week 3, and correction will occur with those numbers. While the Chiefs are the only team with the unenviable distinction of having a negative record in our picks as they’re now 1-2 for us this year.

The Giants were another tough pick for us considering the Vikings had been nothing but good to us in the first three weeks of the season. Despite a heartbreaking loss to the Washington Redskins Week 3, the Giants climbed to the top of the YPP’s ranks while the Vikings dropped a bit despite an impressive win against the Panthers.

Another factor that might have been overlooked is the dome and home field factor that Minnesota has with their new stadium right now. The fans are rocking in their new home and the Vikings, particularly their amazing defense, are feeding off of it.

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A mixed bag on two other spreads YPP liked

Two picks that the metric suggested in our Week 3 spreads that we stayed away from where the Baltimore Ravens covering their -3.5 line, and the Chicago Bears as underdogs against the Detroit Lions.

We talked about the Bears in last week’s column and how their numbers couldn’t be trusted given their injuries at quarterback but even with Brian Hoyer, Chicago won at home despite being 3 point underdogs. The Ravens, on the other hand, lost at home for their first loss of the season to the Oakland Raiders.

It’s important to sift through the numbers and make smart decisions early on, the unpredictability of these two games is a great example of that.

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An EW preview of Week 5

Similar to last week our EW lines are very similar to the early vegas spreads. Though we are seeing more variance (finally) in the EW numbers. There will be new factors to consider such as Tom Brady’s return to New England, the Broncos uncertainties at quarterback, a possible return of Jay Cutler and much more which we’ll discuss in the following days.

Note, we have four teams on bye per week now and we’ll have to be more selective as our options are fewer. Stay tuned all week for our Week 5 picks and all our other regular content on BSN ATS.

 

 

 

Teams	Current Spread	Expected Wins 2016 prices	Advantage	Home Field	Suggested Spread	Difference
AZ	-3	10	9		-6	3
@SF		5.5		3
NE	-10.5	10.5	12		-9
@CLE		4.5		3		1.5
PHI	-3	7.5	1
@DET		7		3	-2	5
CHI		7.5
@IND	-4.5	9.5	4	3	-7	2.5
TEN		6
@MIA	-3.5	7.5	3	3	-6	2.5
WSH		7.5
@BAL	-3.5	8.5	2	3	-5	1.5
HOU		8.5
@MIN	-5.5	9.5	2	3.5	-5.5	0
NYJ		7.5
@PIT	-7	10.5	6	3.5	-9.5	2.5
ATL		7.5
@DEN	-6	9	3	3.5	6.5	0.5
CIN	-1	9.5	2
@DAL		8.5		3	-1	2
BUF		8	1			0.5
@LAR	-2.5	7.5		3	-2
SD		7
@OAK	-4	8.5	3	3	-6	2
NYG		8.5
@GB	-7	10.5	4	3.5	-7.5	0.5
TB		7.5
@CAR		10.5	6	3	-9

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