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When Boston College lost in the NCAA Men’s Hockey Tournament over the weekend, the conversation immediately shifted to how many players the Eagles might lose to the NHL. Having a roster chock full of drafted players is a double-edged sword and this is when it stings the most.
After a couple of days of negotiations, the high-end exodus from the Eagles began as Spencer Knight (Florida), Matt Boldy (Minnesota) and Alex Newhook (Colorado) all signed ELCs and began their professional careers.
All three will report to the AHL to start with but all three face different roads to NHL careers.
Even though Newhook will begin with the Eagles, that his contract reportedly begins this year means the first year of his three-year ELC is burned off even if he never plays for the Avs this season.
Not playing for the Avalanche this year is something Avs fans should probably prepare for, too. When you look at Colorado’s current roster, there’s a lot harder time finding an obvious spot for Newhook to drop in and learn on the fly.
This is a team with championship aspirations and when they couldn’t (read: wouldn’t) make any room for fellow first-round selections Martin Kaut and Shane Bowers to play meaningful minutes when Colorado’s forward corps was decimated by injuries, it signaled a shift in mindset from previous years when younger players got all kinds of chances to sink or swim as the mindset was geared more towards long-term development than real championship contention.
As the Avs engage in a likely two-team race for the division title out west with Vegas, where exactly do you slow Newhook in?
Colorado’s top six is locked down already as each guy is producing a season you would reasonably expect. The bottom six has been the focus of much discussion, especially at the third-line center job, but for the last two weeks, the Avs have found a little magic with Tyson Jost stepping up.
With Jost centering that line, they’ve been absolutely dominant together so you’re not breaking that trio up.
Now you’re on the fourth line. Lots of rookies have learned on fourth lines in the NHL but not many of them have Newhook’s offensive punch or pedigree. Fourth lines are typically used as defensive stoppers, a home for offensively-challenged specialists to carve out jobs as energizer bunnies (Matt Calvert) or penalty kill aces (Logan O’Connor, P.E. Bellemare) and, for now, a third-line guy having the worst year of his career (J.T. Compher).
Newhook obviously represents a significantly higher offensive possibility than any of those players. His skating alone will be dynamic enough to catch unknowing defenders off guard as Newhook builds his reputation around the league.
But the question of whether the Avs really need more offense from their fourth line is fair. The starts from Bellemare, Jost, and Compher were absolutely glacial. All three have found their footing offensively in the last couple of weeks and while they will obviously stop producing to some extent, as long as they aren’t producing at all, the Avs should be fine.
Their defense is led by one of the league’s highest-scoring trios on the back end, which can help make up for a deficiency in the bottom-six scoring.
The benefit to this trade-off is Colorado’s dominant balance continues. While Jost, Val Nichushkin, Compher, and Bellemare have all had varying degrees of slow starts, they all have excellent defensive metrics. They excel at shot suppression more than generation, which is what you would expect from players in their roles.
Instead of Newhook jumping right into the NHL mix, the Avs are sending him to the Eagles where he can help a team that has had some issues scoring (and preventing) goals. Newhook can drop into a lineup featuring Kaut, Bowers, Jean-Luc Foudy and (hopefully soon) Sampo Ranta.
As the Avalanche season goes on, Newhook has a chance to prove he’s beyond the AHL and when the next injury wave hits Colorado he can put himself on the map for the call-up mix. The Eagles have games scheduled through May 15, which is about when the first round of the NHL playoffs will be taking place. If the Eagles don’t participate in the AHL’s postseason (which is going to be limited anyway), Newhook is in a perfect position to be a black ace for the Avs as he would get into practice with the club and be in the team meetings every day.
All of this, at least to me, looks like it is setting up for Newhook to take one of what could several roster spots available next year. Bellemare, Calvert and Brandon Saad have expiring contracts and could be too pricey to bring back. There’s a decent chance the Seattle Kraken pluck a forward from the Avs in the expansion draft. If all of those happen, then that gives Newhook four different roster spots to compete for next year. It would be a major upset if he didn’t get a long look at one of them, especially if his stint this spring with the Eagles goes well.
Alex Newhook’s dynamic talent has been a delight to follow in the two years since he was drafted. Now that he’s turned pro, it’s tough to have to wait a little longer to see him make his Avalanche debut but it’s a testament to Colorado’s current strength more than a knock on Newhook.
For now, it will be fun to see his featured with other potential future Avs up in Loveland.