Aggressive start to Rockies offseason could bring further changes to personnel by GM Schmidt

Colorado Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt hasn’t pulled any punches this offseason so far. Even as postseason baseball rages into its second week, he may not soon after the final out is recorded in the 2021 World Series.

Schmidt extended RHP Antonio Senzatela to a five-year contract worth $50 million and re-signed C.J. Cron to a two-year, $14.5 million deal before he could be granted free agency in the remaining hours before a moratorium during the playoffs. 

Naturally, the question begs: what else are the Rockies going to do this offseason?

Areas of Need

You can never have enough pitching, goes the old adage. So, despite a starting rotation that performed better in many areas than any other in franchise history, the gentlemen in the bullpen are an entirely different situation.

After 161 games – only three of which relievers didn’t participate thanks to complete games by Germán Márquez – Rockies firemen finished with the 24th-best fWAR (1.7) in all of the sport. The peripheral statistics also suggest one of the least effective groups once the starters had departed: strikeouts per nine (24th), ground ball percentage (25th), walks per nine (25th), left-on-base percentage (26th) and strikeouts per walk (27th).

Over the course of the season though, there was a significant uptick in effectiveness. Since the All-Star Break came to a conclusion on July 16, the relief corps were actually the 10th-best fWAR (2.2) in baseball and 4th-best in the NL. 

All the peripherals that made them one of the worst in the Senior Circuit over the first-half made them one of the best bullpens in the second-half: strikeouts per nine (7th), ground ball percentage (6th), walks per nine (6th), left-on-base percentage (5th) and strikeouts per walk (4th).

While there’s significant youth in the Colorado’s ‘pen, more consistency and depth will be a primary focus for Schmidt in order to avoid the same frustrating start for a second year in a row. 

It may come as a surprise, but the 2021 roster featured nine different players with 10 or more home runs. Even as this was only the second occurrence in team history, the Rockies fell short in the power department. No one hit 30 home runs – Cron led the way with 28 – and the team finished tied for 21st-most in MLB. 

The loss of Trevor Story this offseason would subtract an additional 24 homers from this past season. With power-hitting shortstops a premium commodity, it’s more likely that an outfield bat acquired in free agency will provide the reinforcement requested by manager Bud Black, especially as Team President Greg Feasel has suggested an increase over the payroll from this past season.

Wants & Desires

It’s no coincidence the Rockies made consecutive postseasons in both 2017 and 2018 thanks to successful closers Greg Holland and Wade Davis leading the NL in saves. Following the poor return on investment from much vaunted $106 million super bullpen – Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee – a deal with a high-profile closer should not be expected.

In house options may not be awe inspiring, but the upside is a factor. Carlos Estévez may get an opportunity to be the man while players like Tyler Kinley and Robert Stephenson could take steps forward to possibly control the ninth inning.

The need for power is apparent, but the need for a superstar-caliber player could answer multiple desires. With Story seemingly on his way out, that only leaves franchise stalwart Charlie Blackmon as one who could possibly fill that quota.

Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers are both on the precipice of becoming stars, but until then, ownership may want another noteworthy name to help move season tickets and sell jerseys at Diamond Dry Goods inside Coors Field. 

Surplus Value

Should Colorado enter the fray of the trade market, something they’ve shown hesitancy to do based on an affinity for “their guys,” they may look to deal from positions of strength: starting pitching and low-level prospects.

If we exclude a dearth of outfielders such as Sam Hilliard, Raimel Tapia, Garrett Hampson, Connor Joe and Yonathan Daza since any number may not bring back a substantial return, the organization could get creative – if not risky – with moving a starter.

A departure for Jon Gray would make it less likely the Rockies trade from their rotation. Should Colorado could believe in young starters like Peter Lambert, Ryan Feltner and Ryan Rolison, not to mention those even further down the line in Class A such as Helcris Olivares, Chris McMahon and Sam Weatherly, then the unthinkable could actually occur. 

Position players like as Brenton Doyle, Aaron Schunk and Michael Toglia would certainly intrigue any club looking to add minor league depth when the big league club is simply a year or more away from truly contending. Teenagers like Zac Veen, Drew Romo and 2021 1st round pick Benny Montgomery seem untradable at this point, so worry not if you’ve already grown attached. 

Colorado may be at a crossroad, but there’s someone new at the wheel with a new direction in mind. This offseason should let us know exactly where they’re headed in the coming years.