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After trouncing the JV teams, here's why the Broncos will hold their own against the varsity

Andrew Mason Avatar
September 27, 2021

DENVER — Playtime is over.

The Denver Broncos did what a good team should do to three of the worst teams in the league: They pulverized them. They’re 3-0, and anything short of that should have been a disappointment; the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets are a combined 0-9.

“That’s what good teams are supposed to do,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio told his team in a video posted on the Broncos’ social-media channels.

This start should be savored for at least a moment. It comes in marked contrast to the first two years of the Fangio era, when the team didn’t win in September, muddled through mediocre Octobers and was effectively playing out the string by Veterans Day.

And there are trends that work in the Broncos’ favor.

Start with Teddy Bridgewater’s form. Once again, he completed over 75 percent of his passes, going 19-of-25. Once again, he didn’t turn over the football.

Consider this: In the last 20 years, just nine quarterbacks had completed two-thirds of their passes, no turnovers and at least 50 attempts while being part of a 3-0 start. All six of the teams with those passers ended up in the playoffs. (And the quarterbacks were named Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, with Rodgers and Mahomes pulling it off twice.)

Bridgewater became the seventh, and his season-long ESPN QBR of 78.0 trails only the rating of Rams passer Matthew Stafford.

Then there is the fact that the Broncos are the 36th team since 1990 to start the season 3-0 with a point differential of at least plus-50 and a turnover margin of plus-3 or better.

Eighty percent of the precious 35 ended up in the playoffs — higher than even the 75-percent figure of 3-0 teams that end in the playoffs.

Not bad for a team that, as Bridgewater himself said, has “room for improvement.”

“I think we left some points on the board on the field in the red zone,” he said after a day that saw five red-zone drives net 20 points, with a Javonte Williams goal-to-go fumble marring the day. It was the Broncos’ second red-zone fumble in three games.

“But for the most part, man, the thing I love about this team is that we’re finding a way to win. A lot of people don’t understand how hard it is to win in this league, and everyone thinks sometimes that it is easy, it’s pitch and catch, block, but there is a lot that goes into it. So this team, we just keep finding a way to win.”

And the Broncos have done better than the average against the trio of vanquished, winless teams.

On average, the Broncos’ point differential against those foes is 4.4 points better than those teams’ pace to date.

While Denver’s offense has averaged 0.9 points per game below the average conceded by their foes, the Broncos have held opponents to an average of 5.3 points below to their averages — which would be even better if Jacksonville’s kickoff return for a score is removed from the equation.

“We’ve been pretty damn solid for three weeks, both offensively and defensively,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio said.

So, let’s carry that forward.

If the Broncos maintain those averages relative to their foes against the Ravens, they would win next week, 27-22. A week later, they would beat Pittsburgh, 21-11.

Holding opponents to 5.3 points below their averages is exactly what turns a flummoxing 5-11 season into a playoff team — even if their offense is slightly below average in terms of point output relative to its foes.

So, what are we asking of the Broncos?

Just to continue what they’re doing. It may not look like a shutout, or an average of one touchdown for the opposing offense per game. And on offense, it might be hard with the prospect of going into October without both starting guards and two of their top four wide receivers.

Continuing their undefeated run over the next six games is unlikely. Their next six opponents are a collective 10-7. Four of them were playoff teams last year, and the two that weren’t are the undefeated Las Vegas Raiders and a Dallas Cowboys side that has a road win over the Los Angeles Chargers and a toe-to-toe, near-miss loss to the world champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers to their credit.

But if the Broncos run through that gauntlet 3-3, they put themselves in position to come home, dispense with the Philadelphia Eagles and be 7-3 at their bye, with five division games remaining.

Opportunity would be in the Broncos’ hands.

A team that wallops the bad clubs should be a .500 team against the good ones. And that would give the Broncos a stamp of legitimacy that their three wins have not.

We’re still learning what these Broncos can be.

But over the rigorous slate of the next six games, an offense that protects the football and a defense that remains among the league’s best should be enough to have this team accomplishing general manager George Paton’s first stated goal: playing relevant games in November and December.

From that launching pad, anything would be possible.

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