Advanced Scouting Report: Rockies open 2017 in Milwaukee

Milwaukee Brewers Team Overview

Record:
2016 Record	73-89 (4th in NL Central)
2017 Fangraphs Projection	73-89
2017 PECOTA Projection	78-84
Team Strengths/Weaknesses:
2016 Hitter K%	25.5% (30th in MLB)
2016 Hitter BB%	9.9% (3rd in MLB)
2016 SB	181 (1st in MLB)
2016 wRC+	90 (25th in MLB)
2016 Pitcher K/9	7.37 (28th in MLB)
2016 Fastball%	60.6% (4th in MLB)
Miller Park:
Park Factor	103
HR Factor	112 (114 for lefties)

No, the Milwaukee Brewers don’t look like a contender at the moment. But a diverse contingent of impact prospects began finding their way to the show in Milwaukee at the end of 2016. This season will likely be more of the same. If they weren’t seemingly destined to be sellers for at least one more deadline, one could imagine enough things going right for the Brew Crew to stage a late season surge into the playoff picture. It may be a stretch, but there is a lot more to be optimistic about in the long term.

Projected Daily Lineup

1. Jonathan Villar-2B
2. Keon Broxton-CF
3. Ryan Braun-LF
4. Eric Thames-1B
5. Domingo Santana-RF
6. Travis Shaw-3B
7. Orlando Arcia-SS
8. Jett Bandy-C
9. Pitcher-P

For a ballpark built to those looking to clear the fences, Brewers GM David Stearns has clearly prioritized speed and athleticism during Milwaukee’s rebuild. This must please Brewers Manager Craig Counsell, who lets his guys fly on the basepaths, almost to a fault. But it’s not like Villar, Broxton, Santana, or versatile bench bat Hernan Perez can’t launch one out on a moment’s notice. Everyone should be very afraid if Eric Thames lives up to the hype he built in Korea. Some projection systems seem to be buying it. Most of all, this lineup will be sure to work up Rockies pitch counts and constantly test the arms of Tony Wolters and/or Dustin Garneau.

Probables

Game 1: Apr., 3 @ 12:10 MT

Opposing Starter: Junior Guerra

At 31-years-old, something finally clicked for Guerra. He had little prospect fanfare, and there is not sufficient data to know exactly what adjustments Guerra made to put himself on the rubber to start on Opening Day. However, further investigation into his arsenal suggests very little, if anything, about Guerra’s 2016 performance was a fluke.

Guerra primarily throws a four-seamer at an average of 94 mph. While it may be his worst pitch, he commands it well enough to set up one of the game’s most dangerous splitters. Guerra also mixes in a tight slider below the zone and seems willing to throw it in any situation. A sinker was added part way into 2016, often thrown inside to righties, especially when Guerra is behind. All three of Guerra’s secondaries are above average at inducing ground balls.

Guerra’s tendency to rely on the four-seamer could be his downfall. The Rockies should look to jump at them early in the count.

Game 2: Apr., 4 @ 5:40 MT

Opposing Starter: Zach Davies

About half of pitches thrown by Davies are his sinker. Hovering around 90 mph, he will throw it whenever, and, against righties. Against lefties he tends to keep it along the outside. But while his sinker induces a lot of ground balls, it also functions as a strong setup for a changeup that, more often than not, stays below 80 mph. Davies will also find ways to mix in a four-seamer and a cutter, and often throws an uncontested curveball over the plate early in the count.

No matter how the Rockies lineup chooses to approach Davies, they need to be careful not to look foolish. A good changeup can have that effect on hitter. Just as Davies always has it in his arsenal, the hitter must be wary of the change in order to have a chance.

Game 3: Apr., 5 @ 6:10 MT

Opposing Starter: Wily Peralta

Near the end of 2017, Peralta decided to use his four-seamer, which averages 96 mph, more than his sinker. It appears this has improved the effectiveness of the sinker in terms of both inducing whiffs and ground balls. But the real out pitch is a slider.

There did not seem to be much variety in terms of where Peralta locates his pitches. Predictablility should not be an issue. All the Rockies need to do is take advantages of lapses in Peralta’s command, which are likely to occur.

Game 4: Apr., 6 @ 11:40 MT

Opposing Starter: Chase Anderson

Anderson primarily throws a four-seam fastball, averaging 92 mph, with considerable rise. However, Anderson effectively mixes each of his four pitches in many different ways. His circle change is always a threat for a strike. His curveball, while not as good of an out pitch as it used to be, is still average in terms of whiffs, and is even better for grounders or stealing early strikes. The sinker can come anytime, but is found mostly early to lefties.

Anderson does not still have a starting job because of his stuff. This is all about his ability to hit his spots, which he has not proven to be capable of doing consistently since entering the MLB. The outcome of the Rockies offense will have more to do with the type of day Anderson has than themselves.

What to Watch For

None of the starting pitchers mentioned above is particularly strong at achieving strikeouts. They thrive on weak contact, often of the ground ball variety. One bat of intrigue will be Trevor Story. If he can avoid getting jammed down and inside by sinkers, there’s no reason this week can’t at least look a bit similar to his debut week at the beginning of 2016. It’s not like the Brewers bullpen strikes fear in anyone either. Taking three games out of four wouldn’t be farfetched for the Colorado Rockies in what is the first series of the Bud Black era.

Credit data to Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Brooks Baseball