Addressing the needs: Brock Osweiler and the QBs

March is upon the Denver Broncos and with it comes the frenzy that is free agency. The World Champions have arguably the toughest task of any team this offseason as they try to handle the issue of 26 free agents on the roster. Just under the top priority of signing Super Bowl 50 MVP Von Miller to a long-term deal, is the nagging dilemma of the all-important quarterback position and particularly, Brock Osweiler’s future in Denver.

Several reports stemming from Denver Post Woody Paige’s article Saturday night point towards Peyton Manning retiring from the Broncos and the game of football. Although nothing has been confirmed, the writing has been on the wall since the team won their third Super Bowl. That leaves his $19 million base salary to recoup the Broncos coffers and Osweiler, who valiantly stepped in Nov. 15 as Manning struggled in the home in the 29-13 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Manning required rest for his Lis Franc injury and Osweiler led the team to a 5-2 record under his leadership and stayed afloat long enough to reach the postseason.

Now, as a Hall-of-Famer prepares to retire, the Broncos must decide whether keep Osweiler via franchise tag (if still available), sign him to a lengthy new contract or seek his replacement through free agency, draft or by backup Trevor Siemian. The dilemma is a large one and one that will impact the Broncos for years to come regardless of which direction they take.

Osweiler not only had a splendid record as the starting quarterback in 2015, but he did so against some impressive foes. He defeated Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, beat the Cincinnati Bengals in terrible weather (both games went to overtime) and in his two loss was narrowly defeated by a combined 10 points. Osweiler threw for 1,967 yards while completing 61.8 percent of his throws for 10 touchdowns to six interceptions culminating in an 86.4 passer rating. His biggest flaw may have been the 23 times he was sacked, several of those due to holding onto the ball while slowly progressing through his reads.

The Broncos have showered Osweiler with praise throughout his first season of meaningful playing time during his fourth season in the NFL. He certainly deserves a large amount of credit for their Championship. The true crux f the situation will come apparent March 9 when the free agency signing period begins. The Broncos would like to hammer out a deal with Osweiler before other teams like the Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams, Cleveland Browns and others without viable options at quarterback come calling.

General Manager John Elway gave some insight into his mindset last week when he discussed the young signal caller from the NFL Combine. On an episode of Pro Football Talk on NBC Sports Network Elway not only laid out the quarterback market this offseason but also stated what he thinks this year’s offer will be like from the Broncos this time around.

“When you look at where the salaries are on quarterbacks, either above $15 million or below $5 [million]. There’s no middle class of quarterbacks.” Elway said Feb. 26. “So that’s where you hope to get a fair deal with Brock’s representatives. This won’t be his big contract but this will be a contract where he’ll be able to make very good money and be able to prove himself that could lead to that next big contract.”

From Elway’s statements Osweiler may have to decide if he is willing to play for less money (likely a 3-4 year deal for an annual salary from $10-14 million) on a championship caliber team or go where the offers start at around $15 million dollars. That elusive middle ground Elway spoke of on Pro Football Talk is where the shrewd businessman is likely to stay in when speaking to Osweiler’s representatives. The franchise tag for Osweiler, if not placed on Miller before the Tuesday, would be nearly $20 million for the quarterback position and something that would be highly unlikely for the Broncos to do.

The other option, although it seems unlikely, would be let Osweiler walk and look to the free agency or the draft for his replacement. It would risky and scary for a team that has aspirations and a realistic chance of repeating as Super Bowl Champions in the 2016-17 NFL season.

If they let Osweiler walk they would suddenly have only second-year quarterback Siemian, a 2015 seventh round pack (250th overall), on the roster and they would have to look to free agency or a trade for another quarterback to compete for the job. The only free agents that would be a viable option to step in and start for a contending team would be Sam Bradford, Kirk Cousins or Ryan Fitzpatrick. Bradford and Cousins are in the same boat as Osweiler but their experience as starting quarterbacks would make the contracts they are seeking in free agency exceed anything Osweiler is asking.

Fitzpatrick is the only free agent that has the right combination of experience, talent and likely the right asking price, to be an option if Osweiler signs elsewhere. The New York Jets have continued to express interest and confidence in trying to resign their quarterback before March 9 but have yet to do so. At 33, Fitzpatrick fits the mold of a veteran starting quarterback due around $15 million per season. If the Broncos could convince him to take a short-term deal (2-3 years) for $13-11 million it could be a landing spot for the journeyman.

If free agency is not an option Elway may try to trade for a quarterback. Colin Kaepernick has reportedly asked for a trade from the San Francisco 49ers and would fit the Broncos system quite well. He remains the leader far and away for the Broncos to pick up. He is due a base salary of $11.9 million and would likely be cheaper than any of the above capable free agent quarterbacks, including Osweiler. However, acquiring him would cost the Broncos multiple draft picks. Although it seems like a good fit, Elway would still rather get a deal done with Osweiler.

The draft would be another place to look for Manning and Osweiler’s replacement but it would be a glaring admittance of a rebuild, something the Broncos would try to avoid at all cost while the formidable defense is intact. The leading candidates in the draft class would be Carson Wentz, Jared Goff and Paxton Lynch, in that order. Wentz and Goff will more than likely be off the board when the Broncos pick from 31 and that may be too early to select Lynch, a tall, raw talent from Memphis University. The Broncos have glaring needs across the offensive line and need to think long and hard about taking the best lineman on the board with their first pick. Dak Prescott from Mississippi State University is a versatile player with immense talent that has drawn comparisons to a Tim Tebow but has superior passing skills. He would be available in the middle rounds and could come in a compete with Siemian right away but again, drafting a hopeful starting quarterback in 2016 from anywhere in the draft would taking a step back for the Broncos.

The Denver Broncos are certainly at a crossroads at quarterback. It seems that by the end of the week Manning will retire a Bronco and the free agency frenzy will bring pressure to sign Osweiler back. There is no doubt that he is the Broncos best option but at what price? Broncos Country will find out shortly. Every option outside of No. 17 remaining in orange and blue is a risky one but Elway has never been one to bow to convention. Keep your eye on the news ticker because anything may fly across it in the coming days and weeks.

UPDATE 3/1: ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting the Peyton Manning may play another year. That being said he doesn’t expect that to be with the Denver Broncos.