A very accurate metric is predicting the Denver Broncos beat the Green Bay Packers

I apologize in advance to the casual fan who may not grasp onto this very well. It’s definitely some nerdy stuff. 

I won’t get into the details and sophistication of the Net Yards Per Play Advantage System, known as NetYPP, but let’s just say that it works pretty damn well. In fact, it works so well that ESPN’s betting Guru RJ Bell told me last week that it could possibly be the single most important statistic in the NFL. It must be noted that anything over 60% is considered amazing in the NFL betting world.

Last season, in the South Stands Denver Wager-Off, I was down to less than $500 entering week eight. The trend-level system that I was using was getting me killed. In this fantasy betting league, you start with a $10,000 balance (Fake money) and I had wiped out over $9500 of it.

That’s when I went to my good friend Adam Chernoff who happens to be an oddsmaker in the Caribbean. Adam had studied betting metrics for the last decade and he was using this new NetYPP system with amazing results. I probably spent eight hours on the phone, on Twitter, or on text with Adam over the next week forcing him to teach me this system.

I ended up winning 12 consecutive weeks and by the time the Super Bowl came around I had over $15,000 and was leading the South Stands league. Yeah, yeah, I did pretty well for myself in Vegas too but what happens there, stays there.

I started using NetYPP in week four of this season (I needed to wait for data to develop) and so far I’ve had three winning weeks, one losing week and my overall record on picking games is 14-3, after going 4-0 last week. You could say I believe in this.

Here are my YPP plays for this week. Jets have 6 point advantage against the spread. Others all have 5 JETS +9 JAX +6 AZ -7.5 TAMPA +3.5

— Brandon Spano (@BrandonSpano) October 24, 2015

Now I’ll answer both of your questions. First off, no, I will not teach it to you. Second, it has everything to do with the Broncos.

The Vegas line on Sunday’s game against the Green Bay Packers is GB -3. But the line that I came up with using my NetYPP calculation is DEN -4. In other words, Denver should be the favorite in this game. Especially at home. As a matter of fact, it would be a pick-em (0) IN GREEN BAY.

Don’t think for a second that Vegas doesn’t know this either. They do. But they create lines based heavily on public perception. NetYPP is the method that is used to catch them when they do. Many NetYPP lines will actually match right up with the Vegas lines. Those of course are the games that we don’t play.

We consider anything over six points a large advantage.  If NetYPP shows the Broncos at -4 and Vegas has the Packers at -3, that means we have a 7 point advantage with Denver. That’s big.

No method is flawless and there is no way to predict the future so this is not a guarantee, but the sign’s look really good for Denver in my estimation.

With all of that said, Denver +3 is the biggest advantage play in the NFL and the Denver Broncos are my pick of the week! Not only do I think they cover, but I think they win outright.

Broncos Country, I’ll see you after the big victory on Sunday night.