A point from perfection, analyzing our Week 3 picks

A point from perfection and a 5-0 record. That’s how our Week 3 picks ended with a final 4-1 tally putting us at 7-and-3 on the year. We’ll take it, though this week has made things a bit murkier and even though we can finally begin to trust YPP, the data isn’t nearly as reliable as it will be in a couple weeks.

Taken only at face value, the raw YPP numbers were 8-8 against the spread while the estimated win metric was a much better 11-and-5. So neither metric is stable yet but using the two combined we can come up with some good numbers as the statistical predictability becomes more trustworthy.

As we do every week we’re going to see what worked and what didn’t in our previous week’s bets, while also charting out the early Week 4 lines and comparing them to our Estimated Win metric.

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Why even bet if they’re still playing special teams?

Sure special teams are part of the game, but do they have to be? Aside from poor corner play, which has been a real issue, nothing plagues football bets like special teams play. Our one miss of the week is a perfect example of that.

We picked the Jacksonville Jaguars as 1-point underdogs at home against the Baltimore Ravens. While it didn’t always look pretty, the Jags actually took the lead with 7:27 remaining in the game. They had a chance to extend that lead to four points with only three minutes remaining, but a blocked field goal attempt prevented that and in the process gave Baltimore great field position to drive down and win with a kick themselves. Which is exactly what happened.

The Ravens won by two points which is actually what the spread jumped to by the time the two teams kicked-off Sunday morning. Considering we liked the Jags when the line was even and +1 we’ll take the loss and move on. But we were truly one blocked field goal away from going 5-and-0.

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Our consensus picks

We’ve given you two metrics that we’ve talked about extensively on our site, YPP and our Estimated Win’s metric. There were three picks that both sets of numbers liked last week, one of which was Jacksonville.

The other two games were Minnesota Vikings +7 against the Carolina Panthers, and the Kansas City Chiefs -3 against the New York Jets. Both cashed.

The Vikings remain undefeated against the spread, as they won impressively by imposing their defense on the Panthers and doing just enough on offense. This is basically the formula that allowed Minnesota to have a very good 2015 campaign, but their defense has been absolutely incredible this season taking their play to another level. They’re currently top of the league in defensive yards allowed and were just swarming the Panthers, who’s offensive line seems much more maligned this season than in their 15-1 run last year.

The Chiefs instead had lost two tough ones against the spread, but both metrics liked them substantially, and they delivered in a major way. The Chiefs finally found their defensive groove and had an interception party (six!!), on one of the NFL’s more maligned gunslingers, Ryan Fitzpatrick. There are some teams that are streaky, we talked about the Bills last week, the Jets might just be in that category as well thanks to their mercurial quarterback. The Chiefs covered the points by winning 24-3.

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Our EW pick of the week

We also offered up a few picks on the podcast that were specific to one metric or set of numbers as there wasn’t a consensus, but they were still spreads we liked.

For our Estimated Win pick of the week, we had the Oakland Raiders who surprisingly were 1-point underdogs in Tennessee against the Titans.

Now this wasn’t a blowout like some of our other picks. The Titans kept it a touchdown game the entire time but ultimately couldn’t prevail, as Oakland had their best defensive game of the young season. The Raiders borough home the 17-10 win on the road, something they haven’t done all that often in recent years.

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Our YPP pick of the week

Featured in our podcast first, our YPP pick of the week was the Denver Broncos -3 at the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Broncos kept the game close right until the fourth-quarter where their offense got into a rhythm. There was lots of uncertainty going into the season with Denver, but given their defensive performances and a young quarterback in Trevor Siemian that seems to be gaining confidence, it’s no surprise their back atop the YPP differential leaders, as they were in 2015.

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A missed opportunity

We mentioned in our picks column how both sets of numbers liked the Los Angeles Rams as underdogs (+5) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But we weren’t confident enough to pull the trigger on this one, as the Rams have (had?) too many questions on offense and we still wanted to see more out of the Bucs as well.

Well, the Rams won by five and put up 37-points, so we missed an opportunity there. Despite an absolutely awful showing on Monday Night Football Week 1 against a lowly San Francisco 49ers squad, the Rams are now atop the NFC West with a 2-1 record. That’s the same exact record they have against the spread this year, so while that offense is still ugly we need to start paying attention to Southern California’s newest team.

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What’s ahead 

We’re going to focus a bit more on YPP in the following weeks but we won’t completely discard EW as it’s been a useful extra set of data to make informed bets. As it’s still very early in the week and some lines aren’t even out yet, these are our suggested spreads by our EW numbers. Even though we’re four weeks in at this point, the EW suggested spread is very close to the actual line at this point.

Note: The two games that don’t have a spread yet are the Buffalo Bills against the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks vs the New York Jets. Presumably, the uncertainty with injuries by Russell Wilson (Seattle) and still unknown starting quarterback for the Patriots is preventing these two spreads from being available right now.