A look at the crazy scenario that could end with the Broncos in the playoffs

DENVER — The Denver Broncos aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

So I’m telling you there’s a chance.

It’s a slim chance, no doubt, but with three weeks remaining, there’s still a shot for the Broncos to make the remarkable run from 4-8 to 8-8 and slide into 2021 as a playoff team.

Here’s what needs to happen for that wild ride to take place and who the Broncos should be cheering for this weekend.

THE PLAYOFF PICTURE

The Kansas City Chiefs have already wrapped up the AFC West, so the Broncos only shot at the playoffs is with a wild-card spot.

Fortunately for the Broncos, there is an extra wild-card spot beginning this year. Unfortunately for Denver, they only have a shot at the final playoff spot.

Here’s how the race for the seventh AFC playoff spot looks heading into Week 15.

• 7th seed — Miami Dolphins (8-5)
• 8th seed — Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
• 9th seed — Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)
• 10th seed — New England Patriots (6-7)
• 11th seed — Denver Broncos (5-8)

THE PLAYOFF PATH

The Broncos’ path to making the playoffs for the first time since Super Bowl 50 isn’t easy, but it’s straightforward. Here’s what has to happen for Denver to make the dance.

• Broncos (5-8) must win out
• Dolphins (8-5) and Ravens (8-5) must both lose out
• Raiders (7-6) must lose to the Chargers in Week 15, beat the Dolphins in Week 16 and lose to the Broncos in Week 17
• Patriots (6-7) must lose at least one game but beat the Dolphins in Week 15

If all of that happens, the Denver Broncos will be in the playoffs thanks to a messy tiebreaker process.

With the way the schedule plays out for the remaining three weeks, the only way the Broncos will make the playoffs is if there is at least a four-way tie for the final playoff spot.

If the above happens, the Dolphins, Ravens, Raiders and Broncos would all be 8-8, and the Patriots would either be 8-8 or 7-9. The Broncos would win the tiebreaker regardless of if the Patriots are 8-8 or 7-9.

If the Patriots are 8-8, setting up a five-team tiebreaker, here’s how it would unfold:

The tiebreakers would start by putting teams in their own division against each other. That means the Broncos would eliminate the Raiders based on the third division tiebreaker, which is the best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Denver would have a 7-5 record in these games, while the Raiders would only be 6-6.

The Patriots would eliminate the Dolphins based on the first division tiebreaker, head-to-head, as New England would sweep Miami on the season.

That would leave the Broncos, Patriots and Ravens in a tiebreaker. The Ravens would lose on the second tiebreaker in determining a three-way tie, which is the conference won-lost-tied percentage. Denver and New England would remain with their identical .583 conference win percentages.

The Broncos would then beat out the Patriots for the final wild-card spot as they have the better head-to-head record thanks to their 18-12 win in New England in Week 6.

If the Patriots are 7-9 and thus setting up only a four-way tiebreaker, here’s how it would unfold:

The first step is the Broncos would again eliminate the Raiders based on win percentage in common games.

However, what would be different this time around, is the Broncos, Dolphins and Ravens would be in a three-way tie.

Denver would take the final wild-card spot in this instance as well because they would have the best win percentage in games played within the AFC. The Broncos 7-5 conference record would send them to the playoffs over the Dolphins and Ravens 5-7 records in the AFC.

WHO TO PULL FOR THIS WEEKEND

At 5-8, the Broncos have put themselves in a position where they need a lot of help. It starts on Thursday night.

Here is what the Broncos need to happen in Week 15 to keep their playoff hopes alive.

• Raiders must lose to the Chargers (Thursday Night Football at 6:20 PM)
• Broncos must beat the Bills (Saturday at 2:30 PM)
• Patriots must beat the Dolphins (Sunday at 11:00 AM)
• Ravens must lose to the Jaguars (Sunday at 11:00 AM)

If all of the above happens, the Broncos will still be in the playoff conversation for another week.

THE FUTURE OUTLOOK

Here’s a detailed breakdown of what the Broncos need to happen the remainder of the season for them to make the playoffs.

Broncos’ remaining schedule

Week 15 — vs Bills (12/19, 2:30 PM)

• Broncos must win

Week 16 — @ Chargers (12/27, 2:05 PM)

• Broncos must win

Week 17 — vs Raiders (1/3, 2:25 PM)

• Broncos must win

Miami’s remaining schedule

Week 15 — vs Patriots (12/20, 11:00 AM)

• Miami must lose

Week 16 — @ Raiders (12/26, 6:15 PM)

• Miami must lose

Week 17 — @ Buffalo (1/3, 11:00 AM)

• Miami must lose

Ravens’ remaining schedule

Week 15 — vs Jaguars (12/20, 11:00 AM)

• Ravens must lose

Week 16 — vs Giants (12/27, 11:00 AM)

• Ravens must lose

Week 17 — @ Bengals (1/3, 11:00 AM)

• Ravens must lose

Raiders’ remaining schedule

Week 15 — vs Chargers (12/17, 6:20 PM)

• Raiders must lose

Week 16 — vs Dolphins (12/26, 6:15 PM)

• Raiders must win

Week 17 — @ Broncos (1/3, 2:25 PM)

• Raiders must lose

Patriots’ remaining schedule

Week 15 — @ Dolphins (12/20, 11:00 AM)

• Patriots must win

Week 16 — vs Bills (12/28, 6:15 PM)

• Patriots must lose either this game or Week 17

Week 17 — vs Jets (1/3, 11:00 AM)

• Patriots must lose either this game or Week 16

Key remaining games

• Raiders must lose to the Chargers in Week 15 (Thursday Night Football)
• Patriots must beat the Dolphins in Week 15
• Raiders must beat the Dolphins in Week 16
• Broncos must beat the Raiders in Week 17