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Yes, it’s still January, but as we fasten our seatbelts and spend time in Mobile, Alabama for a week of scouting the top prospects who’ll be showcased at the annual Senior Bowl, it’s high time for a full update on our draft rankings before this week discombobulates everything.
With a whole lot of changes from our mid-season update, here are our latest rankings, the biggest risers on our draft board, and the most interesting prospects to keep an eye for the Denver Broncos as things officially start to heat up in the draft world.
Before we do that, here are the top-20 prospects at the Senior Bowl.
Top-20 Senior Bowl prospects
1. Zach Allen, DL, Boston College
2. Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
3. Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
4. Gerald Willis III, DT, Miami
5. Andre Dillard, LT, Washington State
6. Garrett Bradbury, OC, NC State
7. Nasir Adderley, CB/S, Delaware
8. Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
9. Dalton Risner, RT, Kansas State
10. Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State
11. Elgton Jenkins, C, Mississippi State
12. Charles Omenihu, DE, Texas
13. Amani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State
14. David Sills, WR, West Virginia
15. Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina
16. Jaylon Ferguson, DE, Louisiana Tech
17. Oshane Ximines, EDGE, Old Dominion
18. Jalen Jelks, DE, Oregon
19. Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia
20. Marvell Tell III, FS, USC
The Heisman finalists
With Justin Herbert falling flat on his face to end the season and deciding to stay in school, the 2019 quarterback class looked pretty shaky just a month ago, but the emergence of two Heisman finalists like Dwayne Haskins and Kyler Murray has changed things drastically as they both declared for the draft.
Haskins is clearly the top quarterback in 2019 with advanced accuracy, pocket presence, and intriguing ball placement on deep throws.
Haskins also excelled at the end of the season against some of the best defenses in college football. Having only started for one year, his upside is massive.
Murray is a much more unique case due to his 5-foot-9 frame. At that size, he’d be the first of his kind to play QB in the NFL. However, the game is changing, offenses are adapting to college concepts and size matters much less when quarterbacks are protected from high and low hits.
Murray makes up for that lack of size with supernatural athleticism and quickness. That quickness makes him extremely elusive, almost impossible to square up and tackle, which significantly mitigates his size concerns.
As a passer, Murray will need to speed everything up, as he played behind the best offensive line in college football and had plenty of time, but his accuracy is special. Rarely have I studied a player who consistently puts the ball in the right spot, leading his receivers on every single throw.
He has plenty of arm power, is superb throwing on the run but also efficient from the pocket.
If size concerns weren’t an issue, we’d be talking about the clear cut first pick of the draft. With that outlier size, he’s 10th on our board. Stay tuned, the conversations on these two quarterbacks has only just begun.
Don’t sleep on Lock
Of course, the big name at the Senior Bowl is Missouri’s Drew Lock, who had some hype going into the 2018 draft before he decided to stay in school. Lock’s decision to stay in school has seen him make significant strides with his decision making, pocket presence, ability to work off his secondary reads, and handle pressure. All key aspects of the quarterback position in which he was sorely lacking last year.
The improvements are significant for the big-bodied athlete with a cannon for an arm, who’s shown flashes of supreme deep ball accuracy.
His biggest concerns are all surrounding consistency both in his mechanics and accuracy. His deep-ball placement, which can be so tantalizing, can also be maddeningly inconsistent. In a setting like the Senior Bowl, if Lock can show more consistency and improvements against air, his stock could rise significantly.
The other issue he has is with his footwork, which is a complete work in progress and has led to his accuracy issues. If Lock can be more refined in his mechanics, the sky is the limit for this prototypical passer with all the tools to succeed at the NFL level.
OL rising
In a draft class dominated by the playmakers along the defensive front, the offensive line crop hasn’t been too shabby either, with eight linemen featured in our top-50 and two more barely missing the cut.
At Oklahoma, where Murray had the best offensive line in the country protecting him, right tackle Cody Ford has emerged as a first-round contender with skills that would make him a vicious guard, though he has the feet to fit at tackle. The one concern with Ford, who will flash nasty blocks and absurd lateral mobility in pass protection combined with violent hands, is his length to play tackle at the next level. He’ll be in the first-round mix regardless of his final projected position, but if a team believes he’s a tackle, the top-15 doesn’t seem inconceivable.
Another riser has been Florida right tackle, Jawaan Taylor, another shorter blocker who is a bull of a run blocker, shows great lateral mobility and hips to anchor in pass pro. Ford and Taylor could go in a wide range between the tail end of the top-10 or the bottom of the first round. Following them during the draft process will be fascinating for teams like Denver who should have an interest.
Another addition to our board is Garrett Bradbury, the leader of NC State’s offense. Bradbury is a true center and fits perfectly in a zone-blocking scheme—which should be what the Broncos will be running under new OC Rich Scangarello. His lateral mobility and natural leverage really stand out as he’s a force run blocking and a consistent technician in pass pro.
In a class with plenty of intrigue, those three have seen their draft stock take off the most.
The tight end class
Entering the draft, the tight end class seemed like a one-man race. It turns out Noah Fant isn’t the only one worth following in this crop, as his teammate T.J. Hockenson has surpassed him in our rankings, due to a more well-rounded skill set, while Alabama’s Irv Smith Jr. has come out of nowhere, becoming one of the more fascinating talents in the class.
Hockenson and Smith Jr. are neck and neck in our rankings. Both are great blockers with size and athleticism to be true mismatch threats in the passing game.
Fant has dropped off a bit, looking like a one-trick pony, a great receiver who’s tough to match up with but also a TE who’s shown inconsistent hands and route running skills. He isn’t a great blocker, either, and is far behind the top two TEs in the class.
UCLA’s Caleb Wilson, who’s averaged 85 receiving yards per game the past two seasons, closes out the top-50 due to his impressive skills as a receiver.
Like the quarterback class, this group has proven it’s much better than originally projected, both really good sings for Denver.
Top-50 Big Board 3.0
1. Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
2. Devin White, LB, LSU
3. Quinnen Williams, DL, Alabama
4. Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
5. Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
6. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
7. Andraez ‘Greedy’ Williams, CB, LSU
8. Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson
9. Jeffrey Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
10. Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
11. Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan
12. Zach Allen, DL/DE, Boston College
13. Jonah Williams, LT, Alabama
14. Deionte Thompson, FS, Alabama
15. DeAndre Baker, CB, Georgia
16. Dre’Mont Jones, DL, Ohio State
17. Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
18. Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
19. Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson
20. Yodny Cajuste, LT, West Virginia
21. Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame
22. N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
23. Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
24. Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma
25. Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State
26. Devin Bush, OLB, Michigan
27. Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama
28. Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
29. D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
30. Austin Bryant, EDGE, Clemson
31. Jachai Polite, EDGE, Florida
32. Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
33. Gerald Willis III, DT, Miami
34. Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
35. Trayvon Mullen, CB, Clemson
36. Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama
37. T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
38. A.J. Brown, WR, Ole Miss
39. Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss
40. Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
41. Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
42. Andre Dillard, LT, Washington State
43. Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame
44. Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
45. Garrett Bradbury, OC, NC State
46. Nasir Adderley, CB/S, Delaware
47. Taylor Rapp, SS, Washington
48. David Edwards, RT, Wisconsin
49. Caleb Wilson, TE, UCLA
50. Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
Just missed the cut:
Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma
Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State
Dalton Risner, RT, Kansas State
Riley Ridley, WR, Georgia
Tre Lamar, LB, Clemson
Johnathan Abram, SS, Mississippi State
Kaden Smith, TE, Stanford
Elgton Jenkins, C, Mississippi State
Charles Omenihu, DE, Texas
Amani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State