A complete guide to the Nuggets' 2018 offseason

Just how much can a playoff appearance shift the narrative that’s placed on a team’s regular season performance? If you’re the Nuggets, a lot.

If the Nuggets had won the winner-take-all game No. 82 in Minnesota on the final night of the regular season and broken their four-year playoff drought, they would have reached the postseason expectations a starved fan base placed on them at training camp last fall. Outside expectations have never breached the walls of Pepsi Center, but a minimum of two home playoff games would have injected the organization with more excitement ahead of next season. Instead, the Nuggets started their summers early for a fifth-straight year and enter the 2018 offseason with more questions than answers.

Here’s everything you need to know about Nikola Jokic’s contract status, how much wiggle room the Nuggets have to re-sign Will Barton and everything else that’s set to unfold over the coming months from the draft lottery to free agency.

Lottery – May 15

The Nuggets are in the NBA Lottery for a fifth-straight season. In each of their four previous lottery appearances, their pick has not moved up or down.

In 2014, the Nuggets came into the lottery with the 11th overall pick and ended up trading that selection (Doug McDermott) on draft night to the Bulls for the 16th (Jusuf Nurkic) and 19th (Gary Harris) overall picks. In 2015, Denver came into the lottery with the seventh-best odds at the No. 1 pick and again stayed at seven after the lottery. They selected Emmanuel Mudiay who spent 2 1/2 seasons in Denver before the team dealt the 22-year-old to New York as a part of a three-team trade which netted the Nuggets Devin Harris.

In 2016, the Nuggets entered the lottery with the ninth-best odds at the No. 1 pick but again saw their pick stay at ninth overall. Because of the 2011 Carmelo Anthony trade, Denver had the right to swap picks with the Knicks, which it used to jump to No. 7 overall and draft Jamal Murray. Last year, the Nuggets entered and exited the lottery with the 13th overall pick and Denver dealt its selection to the Jazz for Trey Lyles and the No. 24 pick, which the Nuggets used on Tyler Lydon.

Since this version of the draft lottery began in 1990, the Nuggets have never moved up in the draft order in the 13 different lottery appearances. But Denver has moved down on seven different occasions. The last time the team’s position changed as a result of the lottery was in 2003 when the Nuggets and Cavaliers had the best odds at the top overall selection, but Denver moved down to  third and ultimately selected Carmelo Anthony.

Jamal Murray is expected to represent the Nuggets in Chicago at this year’s lottery. The team’s last four representatives have been former head coach Brian Shaw, president and governor Josh Kroenke, head coach Michael Malone and starting shooting guard Gary Harris.

Draft – June 21

Nuggets draft picks dating back to 2011 – 

2011 – Kenneth Faried (22nd overall, Morehead State)

2012 – Evan Fournier (20th overall, France), Quincy Miller (38th overall, Baylor), Izzet Turkyılmaz (50th overall, Turkey)

2013 – Erick Green (46th overall, Virginia Tech) – acquired from Utah along with cash considerations for the 29th overall pick (Rudy Gobert)

2014 – Jusuf Nurkic (16th overall, Bosnia), Gary Harris (19th overall, Michigan State) – both acquired from Chicago for the 11th overall pick (Doug McDermott) | Nikola Jokic (41st overall, Serbia)

2015 – Emmanuel Mudiay (7th overall, China), Nikola Radicevic (57th overall, Serbia)

2016 – Jamal Murray (7th overall, Kentucky), Juancho Hernangomez (15th overall, Spain), Malik Beasley (19th overall, Florida State), Petr Cornelie (53rd overall, France).

2017 – Tyler Lydon (24th overall, Syracuse) – acquired from Utah along with Trey Lyles for the 13th pick (Donovan Mitchell) | Vlatko Cancar (49th overall, Slovenia), Monte Morris (51st overall, Iowa State)

There’s still around seven weeks until the NBA draft but two names — Deandre Ayton and Luka Doncic — have emerged as the consensus top-two selections.

Ayton, 19, is a 7-foot-1 center who spent one season at the University of Arizona before declaring for this year’s draft. He averaged 20.1 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game this season. He was voted Pac-12 Player of the Year and a consensus first-team All-American. Ayton was considered the top recruit in 2017 and projects as a game-changing prospect on both ends of the floor at the next level.

Doncic, 19, is a Slovenian national who plays for Real Madrid in the Euro League, which is widely regarded as the second-best league in the world behind the NBA. Doncic is a 6-foot-7 combo guard with a game that’s mature beyond his years. He debuted with Real Madrid at just 16 years old. Doncic is arguably the most proven European prospect ever. He’s NBA-ready and will likely play a prominent role with whatever team drafts him from Day 1.

Here a few prospects that could be available to the Nuggets if they select 14th overall –

Mikal Bridges (6-foot-7, forward, 21-years-old, Villanova)

Miles Bridges (6-foot-7, forward, 20-years-old, Michigan State)

Zhaire Smith (6-foot-5, guard, 18-years-old, Texas Tech)

Kevin Knox (6-foot-9, forward, 18-years-old, Kentucky)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6-foot-6, guard, 19-years-old, Kentucky)

Lonnie Walker IV (6-foot-4 guard, 19-years-old, Miami)

Free Agency – July 1

After splurging last summer and signing Paul Millsap to a three-year, $90 million contract (team option on the third season), expect the Nuggets to spend big again this offseason.

The Nuggets will likely decline Nikola Jokic’s team option for the 2018-18 season and offer him a max contract that will start at around $25 million per season (based on current salary cap projections). If the Nuggets decline his option for 2019, which would pay Jokic $1.6 million, the 23-year-old will be a restricted free agent meaning he can field contract offer sheets from other teams. If he signs an offer sheet, the Nuggets have 72 hours to match and retain his services, but the two sides could come to an agreement on a max contract before that happens.

“Nikola is going to be here for a very long time. The sooner the better,” Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly said after the season when asked about if a long-term contract for Jokic was a priority this summer. “He’s a guy who’s been tremendous in how quickly he’s developed and a guy we love, and he loves Denver. The sooner we can get his signature on a long-term contract the better. …Our motivation is to get it done sooner rather than later. Whatever keeps him here the longest is best for us and best for the team.”

If Denver picks up his team option, Jokic would earn $1.6 million next season but would be an unrestricted free agent in 2020, meaning Denver wouldn’t have the right to match any offer he receives on the open market. Expect the Nuggets not to take any chances and lock Jokic up long-term this summer.

Besides Jokic’s impending contract, the Nuggets will likley stay quiet on the free agent market.

Wilson Chandler ($12.8 million) and Darrell Arthur ($7.5 million) both have player options that they could exercise prior to free agency. Most teams around the league are  short on cash after two seasons of unprecedented spending.

Likely committed salary for 2018-19 (including Jokic’s max contract and Chandler and Arthur’s options): $131 million

*Salary figures obtained from BasketballInsiders.com

• Paul Millsap ($29.7 million)
• Nikola Jokic ($25.2 million) – estimate
• Gary Harris ($16.5 million)
• Kenneth Faried ($13.7 million)
• Mason Plumlee (12.9 million)
• Wilson Chandler ($12.8 million) – player option
• Darrell Arthur ($7.5 million) – player option
• Jamal Murray ($3.5 million)
• Trey Lyles ($3.4 million)
• Juancho Hernangomez ($2.2 million)
• Tyler Lydon ($1.8 million)
• Malik Beasley ($1.8 million)

2018-19 projected salary cap: $101 million

2018-19 projected luxury tax threshold: $123 million

The Nuggets project to be a luxury tax team at the start of the 2018-19 season based on who’s currently on their roster. Denver could still offload salary before or during the season to get under the tax by the end of the league year. The Nuggets’ first-round pick could serve as a sweetener to get off of unwanted money.

Free agents: Will Barton (unrestricted), Devin Harris (unrestricted), Richard Jefferson (unrestricted), Torrey Craig (restricted)

It will be difficult for the Nuggets to retain Barton, even though there’s mutual interest from both sides for the guard to return, if Chandler and Arthur pick up their respective player options.

The Nuggets want to re-sign Craig and could come to an agreement with the guard early in the free agency process. Craig played on a two-way contract this past year and as a restricted free agent (like Jokic), Denver has the opportunity to match any offer sheet he signs with another team.