The Colorado football team has reached a critical point of the season.

Two straight losses have the Buffs sitting at 2-2 and No. 12 Texas Tech (first ranked opponent of 2026) is coming to Boulder. The Red Raiders aren’t the same dominant team they were a year ago, but they’re 4-0 for a reason.

“They get it done,” Deion Sanders said Tuesday of Texas Tech. “There’s nothing flashy or flamboyant about how they get it done. They just get it done.”

Colorado is a 13.5-point underdog to Texas Tech and will likely have a new starting QB on Saturday. All signs point to Isaac Wilson being the Buffs’ starter after Julian Lewis was benched in the Big 12 opener at Baylor last week.

Here are three keys and a prediction for the Colorado football team’s homecoming game vs. Texas Tech, which kicks off at 5:30 p.m. MT.

Avoid self-inflicted wounds

If the Buffs are going to pull off an upset of Texas Tech on Saturday, they’re going to have to play a clean game.

Colorado is the most-penalized team in the Big 12 entering Week 5 (82.3 penalty yards per game). Penalties in all three phases of the game have hurt the Buffs each week, including in their wins. They cannot afford to give the Red Raiders free yardage or short fields.

Also high on the list of the things Colorado can’t afford to do is give Texas Tech extra possessions due to turnovers. The Buffs lead the Big 12 in fumbles (5) so far this season and although Isaac Wilson didn’t throw an INT in relief of Julian Lewis last week, he has a history of doing so.

The Utah transfer QB threw 11 INTs as a true freshman in 2024. Wilson and the Colorado football team’s RBs must protect the football on Saturday to have a chance at a massive upset.

Excel in situational football

The Colorado football team is 7-of-32 (22%) on 3rd and 4th down over the last two weeks. That’s going to get you blown out against Texas Tech.

When the Buffs pulled off a home upset of No. 22 Iowa State last season, they didn’t dominate total yards or time of possession. They dominated third down (7-15) while the Cyclones went just 2-12.

Part of reason Julian Lewis was benched is the Buffs’ struggles in situational football. Not only has the Colorado football team had trouble converting on 3rd down, it has been a struggle to convert in the red zone.

The Buffs have scored TDs on just five of their 11 red-zone trips this season (fewest in the Big 12). In fact, scoring from anywhere on the field has given them issues.

Only four of Colorado’s last 27 drives in the last two weeks have ended with points. 10 of them have ended with turnovers. It’s why the Buffs had to make a QB change.

“Contrary to what you guys may think, we have two coordinators who are really good,” Deion Sanders said Tuesday. “One coordinator, he’s averaged 33 points per game in his entire career so you just have to fix it.

“We have to score. We score that many points, we’re probably losing one game right now, if that.”

Let it rip

This isn’t the Texas Tech defense of last season. The Red Raiders have allowed the most completions (100) and passing TDs (8) in the Big 12 so far this season.

Isaac Wilson provided the Colorado football team with a spark and showed a willingness to push the ball downfield last week. He threw for 156 yards and a TD in the second half alone while helping two of his weapons have impressive performances.

Joseph Williams caught 11 passes for 127 yards and Quanell Farrakahn Jr. had a breakout game with seven catches for 117 yards (both career highs).

Wilson has plenty of talent around him at WR and it’ll be paramount for him to give them plenty of chances to make plays in the passing game. It was part of the recipe to last year’s upset of No. 22 Iowa State when Joseph Williams and Omarion Miller combined for 210 receiving yards and two receiving TDs.

The Colorado football team needs another big game from one (or two) of its WRs.

Colorado football vs Texas Tech prediction

Benching your starting QB this early in a season is typically never a good sign but the lowest-scoring offense in the Big 12 (21.5 PPG) had to make a change.

The Colorado football team has too much talent on offense to have scored just 20 total points over the last two weeks. Wilson led the Buffs to 10 of those points in just one half of football last week off the bench and he’ll need plenty more of that on Saturday to keep pace with Texas Tech.

Defensively, Colorado played well enough to win vs. Baylor but injuries to starters such as LB Tyler Martinez (out), CB Jason Stokes Jr. (doubtful) and DE Lamont Lester Jr. (doubtful) put them in a tough spot.

The Red Raiders are the more talented team and a double-digit road favorite for a reason.

Texas Tech wins 34-23.

Follow Colorado Buffaloes beat reporter Scott Procter on X.