NBA power rankings 2026: Let’s name our favorite first-round matchups

At this point of the NBA calendar, we’ve fully shifted to postseason preview mode. Even contests between two good teams are presented within the broader picture: Does Reed Sheppard’s second breakout make the Houston Rockets more dangerous come the playoffs? Does Aaron Gordon’s return get the Denver defense back to the standards they need to be at? Where does Jared McCain fit into the postseason rotation? It’s always like that.

Borrowing from the ALL NBA Podcast, where Adam Mares and Tim Legler listed some of their favorite first-round matchups a couple weeks back, let’s run through these teams by ranking while discussing one dream scenario for each team’s opponent in the first round.

TIER ONE: Genuine, unquestioned contenders

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (50-15)

Our dream first-round matchup: It’s unlikely Oklahoma City’s first-round series will be all that interesting against any potential opponent. The Western Conference’s toughest Play-In teams will be the Clippers and one of the Lakers or the Suns, likeliest Phoenix. Let’s choose a healthy Suns team, then, as the preference. But San Antonio bothered the Thunder with an egalitarian offense that thrummed from multiple ball-handlers. Phoenix has a Great Value brand version of that. How decisively the Thunder solve that could foreshadow a later matchup.

2. Boston Celtics (43-21)

Our dream first-round matchup: I won’t pair every East contender with the Hornets. That’s too easy. Now that Jayson Tatum has returned, I’m comfortable saying the conference runs through Boston. I’d love to see them against the Miami Heat and their screwball offense. Tempo and this weird cadence might test Boston’s overwhelming math advantage. I doubt any opponent they could face would disrupt them, though.

3. San Antonio Spurs (47-17)

Our dream first-round matchup: San Antonio passing the Thunder for the No. 1 seed isn’t out of the question. It’s likeliest, however, the Spurs end up with the second seed. If the Lakers fall into the Play-In Tournament unexpectedly, it’d be joyous to see that in the first round. I feel like Luka Dončić’s postseason problem solving would create chess against the Wembanyama problemyama. But since the Lakers’ roster means they begin this analogy missing two bishops, San Antonio would still be alright.

4. New York Knicks (41-24)

Our dream first-round matchup: It’s a healthy Philadelphia, which would pit two of the East’s bastions against each other in a first-round rematch from two years ago. I’d like to see whether New York’s perimeter defense can handle Tyrese Maxey, how Mitchell Robinson would hold up, if OG Anunoby can outplay Paul George, a player he’s the spiritual successor to. It would need either New York or Philadelphia to rise in the standings, which feels unlikely, but I’d welcome it.

5. Detroit Pistons (45-18)

Our dream first-round matchup: I’m not ruling out Charlotte’s further ascension, but this has been the series we’ve most dreamt of since the skirmish in North Carolina last month. It’s quite possible Detroit’s concerns would be laid out nakedly against Charlotte’s 3-point barrage. It’s also possible Charlotte doesn’t have enough muscle to match Detroit’s physicality. It’d be an absolute delight of a stylistic clash, however, which I’m all for.

TIER TWO: Now’s the time to prove it

6. Denver Nuggets (39-25)

Our dream first-round matchup: It has to be the Timberwolves, right? I want to see how the Nuggets have evolved against the opponent that made them mortal two years ago. I want to see whether Denver’s new depth stands out against an opponent that runs … seven deep? It would be narrative rich, of course, but there’s a stylistic fight between them, too. Houston would be the easier draw. I don’t want that for Denver. I want proof that ceiling we saw earlier this year is real.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves (40-24)

Our dream first-round matchup: I’d most want to see Anthony Edwards face off against Victor Wembanyama. Minnesota technically sits just three-and-a-half games from the No. 7 seed, which would set up this contest. There’s next to no chance, barring injuries, they would fall that far. But the league’s anointed American face who carries himself as a never-show-weakness Kobe acolyte against the earnest try-hard French contender for his throne? It’s a shame this one isn’t in the cards.

8. Cleveland Cavaliers (39-25)

Our dream first-round matchup: It’d be amusing to see Cleveland show the Orlando Magic what a properly weighted Big Four really looks like. It’d be rich with two playoffs narratives: That James Harden declines in the postseason; that Paolo Banchero rises in them, which his firmest believers always cite in his defense. (Banchero has played better of late.) I think Cleveland’s true opponent is themselves. Perhaps that’s the reason I’m curious about matching them up against a squad similarly constructed to themselves.

9. Houston Rockets (39-24)

Our dream first-round matchup: I’ve been enjoying Reed Sheppard’s second breakout this season. I’d like to see him in a postseason matchup that doesn’t immediately convince Ime Udoka to bench him. That’s the Lakers, probably, although you could also make a case for the Suns.

TIER THREE: Only eight teams win a round

10. Charlotte Hornets (32-33)

Our dream first-round matchup: I’m unconvinced Charlotte will remain in the Play-In Tournament. The Hornets are 6-1 in the past two weeks with a plus-20 point differential. The team’s dream first-round matchup is, well, almost anyone given this torrid streak they’ve been on. I still like them against Detroit, though, for all the reasons listed above.

11. Los Angeles Lakers (39-25)

Our dream first-round matchup: I saw Lakers Twitter ask, if it’s true Los Angeles has been overachieving this entire season, whether Dončić or J.J. Redick deserves the credit for it. The truth is, unfortunately, that overperforming one’s point differential doesn’t actually need credit. It’s sometimes just something that happens. Los Angeles’ record against the league’s top-10 speaks for itself. Dončić hasn’t threatened Best Player in the World status this season, it’s true, but it’s also gone too far. There are three players better than him; his case for fourth-best alive might be the sturdiest one. Let’s set up Los Angeles with a doable first-round matchup, then, for him to prove that: The Houston Rockets.

12. Miami Heat (36-29)

Our dream first-round matchup: Miami has settled into a gray zone between contention — the nine teams we believe have even some chance — and the rest of the league. The team’s point differential this season has surged to plus-3.4, just a tenth of a point behind Denver, even if we understand why Denver can’t be judged on that alone. The Heat have rejected the NBA’s orthodoxy all season. They’re a strange squad to play. I’d love to see New York try to figure them out.

13. Phoenix Suns (37-27)

Our dream first-round matchup: Whatever Phoenix does in the postseason is a bonus to this unexpectedly joyous year. But the most interesting matchup, obviously, would be against Houston. I didn’t select them for Houston; I had my reasons. But the Suns fandom’s animosity towards Kevin Durant is louder than what Houston cares about them.

14. Orlando Magic (35-28)

Our dream first-round matchup: I don’t anticipate a Cleveland slide down the standings, but Orlando vs. Toronto would be the most obvious NBA TV first-round series we’ve ever seen. I don’t expect either team would make the East’s likely top-three sweat. I suppose this isn’t much of a dream. I’m selling out one first-round series in exchange for all the others I want.

15. Toronto Raptors (36-27)

Our dream first-round matchup: It’s the same reasoning as above. Let them face each other and give us one moment on the opening weekend to zone out.

16. Philadelphia 76ers (34-29)

Our dream first-round matchup: Philadelphia should face health in the first round. There’s a good chance they’d lose. I don’t hate the matchup against Boston, though, compared to the few other potential matchups possible for them. Joel Embiid, at his best, could be the type of player that really screws with its math.

TIER FOUR: Do they even want the Play-In?

17. Atlanta Hawks (33-31)

Do they even want the Play-In? Yes! Why not? Atlanta has won six straight and 13 of its past 19 games. They famously own New Orleans’ first-rounder next season, which must be what it feels like to invent alchemy. Let this team that’s currently thriving get some postseason run.

18. LA Clippers (31-32)

Do they even want the Play-In? Sure. The league’s investigation into salary cap circumvention looms, the franchise owes its first-round pick to Oklahoma City, and the Clippers still play really decent basketball despite shedding any notion for contention at the trade deadline. Even if they don’t care about winning in the Play-In, there are 28 other franchises rooting for it.

19. Portland Trail Blazers (31-34)

Do they even want the Play-In? No. I laid out the end-of-season stakes for the Trail Blazers last month, and Scoot Henderson’s development loomed large. Portland’s first-round pick has top-14 protections. Since returning, Henderson has shot 36 percent from the field and 23 percent from 3. Should they win in the Play-In Tournament, they send away that pick and a chance to move up into a guard-heavy lottery. They’re definitely stuck in the Play-In, but I suspect winning twice is the worst case scenario.

20. Golden State Warriors (32-31)

Do they even want the Play-In? Does it matter? Warriors Twitter has been amused at the idea of the two-timeline dilemma reemerging with a late lottery selection: Prioritize the future, or deal it for one more slight hope at contending with Stephen Curry? I feel they’d prefer the pick and that dilemma over a meaningless first-round exit.

21. Milwaukee Bucks (27-36)

Do they even want the Play-In? Sure. It might be the last time Giannis Antetokounmpo plays for the Bucks. Let them give it one more go. (They’re almost certainly not making it, though, to be clear. They’re four games back from Charlotte and five from Atlanta, who are currently the league’s two hottest teams.

TIER FIVE: Could the rest of this season have been an email?

22. Memphis Grizzlies (23-39)

Could this have been an email? Yes. We saw all their young players in this exact situation last year. Shoutout Olivier-Maxence Prosper, though.

23. Dallas Mavericks (21-43)

Could this have been an email? Essentially. The only thing the team has left playing for is Cooper Flagg’s Rookie of the Year candidacy.

24. New Orleans Pelicans (21-45)

Could this have been an email? Yes. The youngsters aren’t even getting serious rotation minutes these days. (Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen played 15 and 13 minutes, respectively, to end last week.

25. Chicago Bulls (26-38)

Could this have been an email? No, but it blows that the most interesting youngsters aren’t playing as much as we hoped. Chicago has been getting chances to see Rob Dillingham and Leonard Miller, one of whom has been excellent, but it’s a bummer that Jaden Ivey was shut down probably for the season. CHGO’s Will Gottlieb made this point last week, I’ll add, and he’s correct.

26. Utah Jazz (19-45)

Could this have been an email? Yes. You know there’s nothing left for the Jazz except waiting for next season.

27. Sacramento Kings (15-50)

Could this have been an email? Yes. Russell Westbrook is out here doing side quests.

28. Brooklyn Nets (16-47)

Could this have been an email? No, but the context isn’t changing on the rookies enough that a sim-to-the-end would hurt them.

29. Washington Wizards (16-47)

Could this have been an email? No, Trae Young has actually returned and will play a few more games for them. I like he’ll have a chance to build chemistry with their prospects before next season.

30. Indiana Pacers (15-49)

Could this have been an email? Yes, and it’s been that way since Game 7 of the Finals.

Tim Cato is ALLCITY’s national NBA writer currently based in Dallas. He can be reached at tcato@alldlls.com or on X at @tim_cato.