Nathan MacKinnon’s brilliance drives the Avalanche and 3 other takeaways from the win over Buffalo

Anytime there’s a matinee hockey game, you never quite know what you’re in for and the first portion of the Colorado Avalanche‘s 3-1 win over the Buffalo Sabres today certainly proved that point. Sloppy hockey tends to define afternoon games and this one was early even for a typical afternoon game with a 12:30 pm local puck drop. It absolutely felt like it.

The game was choppy and neither team seemed in any rhythm but the Sabres were definitely the better team early on. That all went away as Nathan MacKinnon slowly took control of the game as his partnership with Martin Necas continued to flourish. Two MacKinnon goals (and one disallowed Necas goal) later, and the Avs had a comfortable win in Buffalo that required none of last year’s ridiculous comeback antics.

This year’s trip to Buffalo was more of a slow burn, but by the end, it was clear which team was the championship contender and which was the one who hadn’t made the postseason in 14 years, was beginning the year 0-3 while only scoring two goals, and was getting booed off the ice by their home fans (with an added bonus of a jersey being thrown onto the ice!).

As is so often is the case with the Avalanche, however, it starts with MacKinnon.

MacKinnon leads the Avs yet again

I don’t know if you know this, but Nathan MacKinnon is realllllllllly good and the Avalanche often follow in the tone set by their best player. We saw that again today as MacKinnon made a spectacular play to get the Avalanche on the board first despite the Sabres thoroughly outplaying Colorado to that point. Instead of trying to describe it, I’ll let your eyes do the work.

Necas made the pass to him, but the play was really all about MacKinnon. I’m not entirely sure what Sabres goaltender Alex Lyon was doing because he was so late getting across and gave MacKinnon a ton of net to shoot into, but that’s his problem. MacKinnon made hay and got the Avs on the board first.

Fast forward to the second period when the game was being played at 4v4 after a tripping/embellishment combo call and MacKinnon and Necas ran a two-man game that the Denver Nuggets would be proud of as they broke down the Sabres defense. After getting a hand-off from Necas high in the offensive zone, MacKinnon went wide, cut to the middle of the ice and shot back against the grain, which left Lyon swimming a bit.

The goal gave the Avs a 3-1 lead and it was the kind of nasty work that Colorado’s top line has given opposing teams in all four games so far this season.

MacKinnon’s two goals and Necas’s two assists put them both atop the league lead in the scoring race with eight points (a cool 164-point pace for both players). The Avalanche have been a completely different team when their top line is on the ice (this is normal because the top line is, you know, usually the team’s best players), but the numbers are interesting.

After today’s game, the Avs with Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Necas on the ice have an expected goals percentage at 5v5 of 56.84 (actual goals: 5-0). Without them? The 5v5 expected goals percentage drops to 50.51 (and actual goals are 4-5). The Avs forwards have been solid but unspectacular outside of the top line but that trio is changing games (as they should…this isn’t a bad thing).

This is a blistering hot start for both MacKinnon and Necas on the score sheet. They’ll cool off at some point, but while they’re going like this, well, the Avs are 3-0-1 for a reason.

Cale Makar finds his legs

It’s been a “quiet” start to the year for the reigning Norris Trophy winner. Of course, that’s relative to his own expectations because Makar walked in with three points (all assists) in the first three games but he was shut out of the barn-burner in Ball Arena versus Dallas on Saturday night, which made the “slow start” feel all the more pronounced.

The underlying numbers have been good and strong, as they always are, and Makar has yet to be on the ice for a 5v5 goal against, so you’re really feeling like the only thing he was missing was scoring a goal.

For normal defensemen, you don’t think about their goal-scoring much but after Makar’s 30-goal outburst last year, yeah, you think about it and going into Game 4 with no goals was making it feel a little antsy about getting going.

Thanks to a Rasmus Dahlin care package, that uneasiness (if you can call it that?) ended when Dahlin gifted Val Nichushkin a puck and then waited out the Sabres defense and hit Makar on the backdoor for an eaaaaaasy tap-in goal. Not for nothing, but Bowen Byram‘s defense on that pass across was as lazy as it gets. If he put his body in the way or laid his stick flat on the ice, he probably would have broken that pass up, but he didn’t do anything and Nichushkin took the freebie and made it Makar’s freebie.

It was Makar’s first goal of the year and he added an assist on MacKinnon’s second goal later on to finish with a two-point afternoon. Slow start and all and he’s sitting at five points in four games. The guy has made a monster of me with unrealistic expectations. Clearly, I’m the problem here because Makar sure isn’t.

Scott Wedgewood gets it back

Back in the arena of his delightful Avalanche debut last year, Wedgewood needed to pick up the pieces a bit after a rough appearance against the Stars where he was one of Colorado’s worst performers.

Under the shadow of Mackenzie Blackwood‘s return (he was loaned to the Colorado Eagles for a conditioning assignment), Wedgewood’s window to stake a claim for more starts is closing. He responded well today even if I did have a problem with the goal he allowed to Tage Thompson in the first period.

I said this yesterday, I’ll say it again today: If the goalie only allows one, he’s done his job. While the Sabres threw a lot of rubber early in the game, plenty of it wasn’t dangerous and it helped Wedgewood work his way into the game and he got better as the game wore on (as did the Avs as a team). He finished with 28 saves on 29 shots on goal and looked in control by the end.

Wedgewood has allowed just one goal against in three of his four starts, doing far more than simply keeping the Avalanche in games. He’s giving them an excellent chance to win and the skaters in front of him have been able to find enough offense to make Wedgewood’s work stand up.

I do think Wedgewood is in line for a break, though, and I would strongly consider letting Trent Miner take the net on Thursday in Columbus (the two days off might be excuse enough not to do that, though). Good for Wedgewood and the Avs for getting back on the right track today.

Impressive third period from Colorado

The Avs were a bit of an adventure in third periods last year, but so far this year they have been the better team in each game (Utah played better, but the Avs scored the only goal in a 2-1 win, so, you know). That continued today.

When we talk about shot numbers and underlying statistics after games, there’s always a score state consideration because when teams are up by multiple goals, they play less offense and are more comfortable defending. When trailing, the inverse is true.

With that in mind, Colorado’s third-period performance was excellent today. There were 16 minutes of even-strength play in the third period and these were the advantages for the Avs:

• Shot attempts: 19-11
• Shots on goal: 11-3
• Scoring chances: 9-7
• High-danger chances: 5-2

That’s more scoring chances than you’d like to give up, but they weren’t incredibly dangerous and the high-danger chances that Buffalo did create were goal-mouth scrambles where the Sabres were hoping to get a bounce more than they were trying to make a play.

Other than the scoring chances, however, it was complete domination by Colorado. 11-3 in shots on goal when they were the team leading? That’s suffocating a team and refusing to let them off the mat. There was a push by the Sabres early in the third, but once it didn’t go their way, the Avs took over the game and put a rubber stamp on two more points in the standings.

The message to the rest of the Central Division has become clear: This year, you chase us.