The Denver Nuggets Are Waiting for Nikola Jokić

The Nuggets had their blueprint. Survive the first 18 minutes, keep the game close, and drag the Oklahoma City Thunder into the mud with them. They likely didn’t plan the first quarter of Game Four, in which they scored 8 points while shooting 9% from the field. That’s catastrophic, but by staying connected on defense, the Nuggets kept it close until the second half. Then, predictably, they surged into the lead to the delight of the Mile High Faithful. It was clutch time. Winning time in Denver. One more nail to hammer down. But their best player never showed up.

Jokić shot an abysmal 7-22 from the field in defeat. He only recorded three assists. Most notably, he missed two important free throws down the stretch. And it’s the third game in a row in which he’s struggled mightily against the best defense in the league.

“I need to do a better job,” Nikola Jokić admitted at the podium. “But it’s part of the game.”

In his last three games, Jokić is shooting 33% from the field and 18% from three-point range, while averaging 5.3 turnovers per game. The Thunder deserve credit for their game plan and willingness to push the limits of the whistle. They are dictating the officiating, not reacting to it. And Jokić, frankly, looks flustered on the court.

“I know there’s frustration there,” David Adelman said about Jokić’s visible irritation. “When he’s in drop coverage and somebody drives him and they make contact and that’s a call. And here’s a center that’s obviously a bigger man, feeling like the same contact is occurring in the paint. But Nikola will figure that out. He’ll watch the film just like we do as a coaching staff. We’ll discuss finishing around the rim and playing through contact.”

Several other factors should be considered. Fatigue is the first among them. We’ve seen it before – 15 paying the price for his herculean workload throughout the regular season. If not for Jokić’s load-bearing capacity, this organization would have collapsed in on itself months ago. He looks exhausted, physically and mentally. But that’s not an excuse he’d ever make.

Jokić is also sporting a compression sleeve this postseason. He was still wearing one after his Game Two press conference in Oklahoma City. That right elbow seems to be a factor. We’ve never seen him so inefficient, and there’s probably more explaining to do beyond tipping your cap to the tenacious opposition. Jokić is missing shots that he has hit all year. Still, we’ve seen him navigate nagging injuries before, like his intermittent wrist issue. We should hold him to his otherworldly standard.

“They’re playing really good defense on me,” Jokić said after Game Four. “They’re into my body, handsy, physical. I think I missed like 2 or 3 open looks tonight, so it’s a little bit of everything. They’re shrinking the floor for me. It’s a little bit of everything.”

Even if Jokić were feeling fresh, he’d still be facing an uphill battle. The Thunder are packing the paint and daring the role players to beat them from the corners. It’s how the Nuggets won the opening round against the Clippers. It’s also how they lost Game Four against the Thunder.

The Nuggets shot 0/15 from the corners, failing to open up the floor. The spacing collapsed. So Jokić took matters into his own hands, shooting eight threes in the loss. In Denver’s Game Three victory, Jokić shot 0-10 from distance. If the elbow is a significant hindrance, it’s one he has to overcome. He will keep shooting those threes. He and Adelman deem it necessary.

“The guy shoots 45% from 3,” Adelman said last week when the Nuggets beat the Thunder in Game Three. “He had an off night. If we’d lost this game, I’d have walked in here and you’d have just said — Why is he shooting so many 3s? — I’d say he shoots 45% from 3. He’s going to shoot 3s. The paint is packed.”

Traditionally, when Jokić’s subpar play comes under fire, he responds with a masterpiece. I call them reminder games. The performances that excise any festering doubt within the conversation about the best player alive. The stage seems set for one here, if Jokić is ready for the moment. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is primed to win the MVP award. The Thunder are prepared to take control of the series if they can secure Game Five at home. Once again, 15 and company feel their backs against the proverbial wall.

Jokić’s teammates have, collectively, come together and performed well in the postseason. They’ve stepped up when it matters most. They’ve even had his back, securing victory when he wasn’t at his best, twice. That seems a fair exchange for all he’s contributed. But fairness is not a part of the equation right now. The Nuggets must ask more of their franchise cornerstone. Simply put, it’s a responsibility.

The Nuggets headed back to OKC with a 2-2 series split. It’s a disappointing outcome given their seeming control over Game Four. All the same, it’s one most would have taken behind a veil of ignorance. It’s a best-of-three series now, and the Nuggets still have a chance to dispatch a 68-win juggernaut. This is a scenario in which Denver should feel confident. They still have the best player in the world — they just need him to play like one.