Advanced metrics highlight possible resurgence for a healthy Kris Bryant

Kris Bryant’s downfall was swift, but history shows a comeback might not be out of the question.

Rockies outfielder Kris Bryant’s career fell off harder than the expert runs at Breckenridge Ski Resort.

Literally.

From his 2016 MVP season to 2024, the former National League Rookie of the Year’s on-base plus slugging (OPS), runs batted in (RBI) and wins against replacement (bWAR) declined steeper than the average double black diamond grade – 40%.

Bryant was a Chicago Cubs legend from the time he was a highly-anticipated prospect through his final game with the team in 2021. He slashed .279/.378/.508 for an .886 OPS, had four all star game appearances and helped bring the city its first World Series in 108 years.

Amidst a rebuild, the Cubs sent Bryant to the San Francisco Giants for a couple of prospects at the 2021 trade deadline. The following offseason, he, surprisingly, signed a seven-year $182 million contract with the Colorado Rockies. This was a team that had one of the lowest payrolls in baseball and was in the middle of a fire sale that saw the departure of Gold Glove third baseman Nolan Arenado and rising star Trevor Story.

His first three years in purple pinstripes have been an injury-ridden disaster. Even in his highlights, you can see a grimace on Bryant’s face on almost every play.

Because of a variety of injuries including back problems, Bryant does not have a season as a qualified hitter —according to Baseball Savant—and has a .381 SLG while playing home games 5,280 feet in elevation at Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB.

Like most hitters, Bryant thrives when he is consistently in the lineup. So, in an attempt to keep him healthy, the Rockies will make the corner outfielder the primary designated hitter this season.

Aside from his recent prolonged stay on the injured list and a down year in the condensed 2020 season, there were no blatant indicators of his demise. Bryant maintained an OPS+ north of 120 in five of his six and a half years in Chicago.

But in those seasons, there was an underlying trend in certain advanced metrics that surfaced in the past few years.

While upholding All-Star-caliber numbers, Bryant’s barrel rate and hard hit rate slowly dropped each year.

As the MVP, his 11.7% barrel rate exceeded the league’s average 7% rate. After decreasing, on average, 5.25% each summer, it now sits at a feeble 4.7%. His hard hit rate of 39% in 2016 regressed 6.3 percentage points below league average at just 30.2% last season in 2024.

Percentile of Kris Bryant’s hard hit percentage each year in his career (he was not a qualified hitter from 2022-2024)

These metrics are important to look at when evaluating a player because they are key indicators in determining the probability of a hitter collecting a base hit when making contact in fair territory and if that hit will be for extra bases.

Because of his sheer athleticism, Bryant produced solid numbers despite his problematic metrics, which is incredibly impressive. It’s not often you see someone slug .519 with a below-average hard hit rate like he did in 2019.

It all caught up to him in Colorado. 

But, if Bryant can stay healthy all of 2025, he has a chance to at least resemble his old self. He proved twice in his career his ability to bounce back after dealing with injury.

In 2018, he battled shoulder issues and took a 96 mph fastball off the head. His discomfort in the batter’s box showed with one of the league’s lowest average exit velocities of 85.8 mph.

His OPS jumped 80 points to .903 the following year, including an on base percentage (OBP) only three points shy of his MVP season. This improvement earned him his third All-Star selection.

The 60-game COVID season in 2020 was Bryant’s worst. His concern for safety and a finger sprain reflected in his .206/.293/.351 slash line in 147 plate appearances.

While playing for two teams, nearly all of Bryant’s metrics and statistics skyrocketed the next year. This includes a 30% increase in OPS, batting average (AVG) and weighted on base average (wOBA) in 56 more at bats.

That was his fourth season as an All-Star and the last time he was healthy for an entire year.

Unfortunately for Bryant, he was never able to build off his comeback season in 2021 as he sees more time as an outpatient than an outfielder in Colorado.

His ability is evident and his resiliency can be found in the numbers. Give Kris Bryant a full healthy season and he can do damage.