Advanced metrics suggest that his latter 2024 season foreshadow a breakout 2025
Colorado Rockies switch-hitting first baseman Michael Toglia’s major league career is projected to be born in the summer when he turns 27.
Since 2018–When the Rockies last played in the postseason–each position works like a revolving door shuffling through undercooked prospects, journeymen and worn veterans. Now, Gold Glovers Ezequial Tovar and Brenton Doyle are shaping into an every-day shortstop and centerfielder respectively–baby steps in a mission to consistently load the diamond with homegrown talent.
Toglia will check another box towards achieving that goal.
He understands the patience required for this rebuild to work not just as a team, but as a player. “I feel like I’m growing every season. I don’t plan to be my best until the day I retire,” Toglia said. “[I] still feel young, I’m 26 and still [have] a lot of years left in this game.”
After a couple of years moving up and down between Colorado to AAA Albuquerque, Toglia arrived as an Opening Day starter in 2024. He still fought for his spot last year, while seeing time in right field, but the 2019 first-round pick steadily saw action at first base since manager Bud Black started him there against the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 18.
His four-year minor league career prepared him for this moment.
“It was arguably harder to hit [in the minor league] sometimes … the boxes weren’t the same, you don’t have the same scouting report, So you just had to kind of go out and compete,” Toglia said. “It’s actually preparing you for when the stage gets bigger and the lights get brighter and nicer and easier to see that actually helps you slow the game down a little bit.”
From there, he showcased easy power in 25 home runs with his 6’5 225 lbs frame. His longest season in the big leagues so far produced exciting metrics that signal a bright future at first base.
With an above-average slugging percentage at .456, Toglia supplied power the Rox have been looking for—alongside Tovar who had a percentage 13 points higher in 256 more at bats.
“I’ve always taken my walks and driven the ball in the air,” Toglia said. “So this year, I’d like to build on that and then I would also like to build on being just a more complete hitter all around.”
It must have been a frustrating 2024 for Toglia because he had a barrel, hard-hit and walk rate better than 90% of the league, but the basic statistics didn’t show it. Those rates are critical in determining how sustainable a player is batting.
When you see metrics like that, it usually translates to a much higher slugging and on base percentage. But, Toglia was not so lucky. This misfortune can be seen in his batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
In baseball, if a player’s BABIP is below .300, then that hitter is considered “unlucky” because the balls that they are putting in play are producing more outs than hits–excluding outcomes not affected by the opposing defense.
Despite striking balls well and walking more than 92% of the league, Toglia’s 2024 BABIP finished at .270, a statistical anomaly. Because pairings of numbers like this are uncommon, it is safe to assume that the Baseball Gods will reward Toglia for his sustainable advanced metrics in the 2025 season.
After excessive denial, the Colorado Rockies and general manager Bill Schmidt accepted their fate as a rebuilding organization. The inability to commit to demolition with moves like holding on to Trevor Story while his trade value decreased, signing Kris Bryant to a $182 million contract and getting fleeced in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals to send away superstar Nolan Arenado set the franchise back a few years.
The front office operated like they had a stream of prospects as full as Beaver Creek with salmon in the fall. Luckily, they do now.
The Rockies targeted the draft board and international talent pool. Hard. After spending four of the last five years in the bottom third of farm systems in Major League Baseball, Colorado has the 13th best system out of 30 teams–according to Baseball America.
2024 Golden Spikes Award-winner Charlie Condon and MLB’s fifth-ranked pitching prospect Chase Dollander headline the revamped pipeline. In addition to 34th-ranked international prospect Larry Suero, the Rox added:
- Wandi Feliz, OF, Dominican Republic – $850,000
- Rosniell De Paula, SS, Dominican Republic – $750,000
- Kamuel Villar, SS, Dominican Republic – $750,000
- Sebastian Blanco, INF, Venezuela – $600,000
- Brian Tiburco, RHP, Dominican Republic – $425,000
- Pedro Núñez, RHP, Dominican Republic – $400,000
- Melky Ventura, RHP, Dominican Republic – $350,000
These signings put Colorado in a three-way tie with the Los Angeles Angels and Arizona Diamondback for the most international signees.
And while Toglia is seldom mentioned in this growing farm system for the Rockies, he is on track to become a household name in the Centennial State. Similar to Todd Helton, the Rockies’ hall of fame first baseman who played in the early 2000s.
Fans have waited for a player to at least resemble the four-time silver slugger and while Helton offers Toglia knowledge around the clubhouse, Toglia says he wants to forge his own path.
“I want to be that cornerstone guy at first base, but I’m not chasing his career,” Toglia said. “He had a fantastic career, but I want to build my own and I want to build it every day.”
